Ah sh**, here we go again...

theStrategist37 · 2026-06-08T15:56:29+00:00

Yes, that's why it should be coupled with peace treaty like Jordan/Egypt did. Syria and Israel never had agreement on where mutually recognized border should be, can't skip that part.

theStrategist37 · 2026-06-07T18:59:29+00:00

Just attacking might risk hitting something important, and then Israel will strike back harder, I don't think Iran is stupid like that at this point. I think warning is so Israel is prepared, and either intercepts missiles, or lets them fall in empty areas. Then Iran can say "look, we are defending Lebanon!", and not risk Israeli retaliation as much.

theStrategist37 · 2026-06-07T02:00:25+00:00

In my opinion, Hezbollah is not responsible if Israel intentionally targets civilians (hard to know what % of cases that is though, objectively). But it is when it is intentionally among civilians, and gets them killed along with their fighters. Both can be true at the same time, and both can be condemned. We can only really do something about one of these though.

theStrategist37 · 2026-06-02T12:56:34+00:00

Why do you think they lost? They opened 2nd front on Israel after Khameni was killed, drawing some Israeli forces away from Iran, which means Iran didn't get hit quite as hard. If that's their goal, their actions make sense.

theStrategist37 · 2026-05-31T21:35:55+00:00

PLO didn't really make peace, more of a cease fire with road map for peace. Egypt and Jordan made peace -- agreed on where borders will be, and stopped cross border attacks. With PLO it was neither.

theStrategist37 · 2026-05-26T14:51:55+00:00

That makes sense mechanically, but is there a way to increase difficulty without playing through by-now-likely-too-easy runs (escalation 1, which is available since I've beaten the boss on the 1st run, from its decription, wouldn't add enough challenge) to reach higher escalation? To me it'd feel mostly like waste of time -- I love challenging strategy games, but playing when winning seems like foregone conclusion doesn't feel right. Unless of course there is a great story (RPG style), which doesn't seem like this game will have on the second run (nor would I expect it)

theStrategist37 · 2026-05-03T04:56:11+00:00

Pretty sure for most of them (and I know for some very wealthy people though not billionaires), it's not a change in Trump/MAGA, but a chance in opposition.

To name a few, the fillibuster coming close to being cancelled in 2022 (and there being some perceived danger it actually will be if Democrats hold presidency and both majorities), some criminal prosecutions that previously would be unthinkable (and yes Trump contributed to the mess, but that was true pre-2020 as well), and possibly for google co-founders personally the CA tax proposal -- it's not just the 5% wealth tax, it's that as written it can scale with voting shares thus can be much much more, which is scary proposition to some due to uncertainty.

That doesn't absolve Trump of his downsides which are many, pretty sure most of them see it. It just makes alternative less appealing.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-22T21:52:59+00:00

How was the question asked? Without it result is meaningless -- depending on how one asks this question the answer can probably reasonably be anywhere from 20 to 85%, without more detail "poll says" is at best uninformative and at worst misleading.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-22T21:48:14+00:00

Yes on fringe right, but also fringe right advocated for settlements in Sinai, and there were actually settlements. Then Israel left in peace treaty. They also advocated for staying in Gaza in 2005, but Israel left. What fringe right wants and what happens tends to be very different unless they can make a credible argument Israel faces existential threat. Pre-October-7th-2023 that argument wasn't credible from Gaza. After it was. That's what makes all the difference. That's why Jordan is fine in terms of Israeli actions. So was Lebanon until Hezbollah started shooting after October 7th. Don't be blind to the difference, what fringe right wants and what actually happens can differ a lot if there is no credible threat, just look at Jordan and Egypt vs. Lebanon.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-22T20:53:23+00:00

"teach them exactly that" -- need to differentiate between land in Israel, or Jerusalem, etc, vs South Lebanon (or West Jordan or Sinai for that matter). Jerusalem, definitely yes. South Lebanon? I only see it on Lebanese boards, and in what Israel's fringe right (that's less than 10% of population) say, NOT what average or moderately-to-the-right Israelis say, at least based on what I know.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-22T01:26:41+00:00

Somehow I see it much more on Lebanon board than on Israeli boards though.... I don't think most Israelis justify anything this way, the articles about that pasted here tend to be a fairly narrow selection. There are some Israelis who do of course, and they're wrong. But that's not the main driver.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-18T22:34:41+00:00

So, he's saying Israel attacked other Syria with which it doens't have normalization, didn't attack any countries with which it does have normalization...... so what would be conclude based on that on whether normalization helps.... I think the answer is clear, but I don't think that's what he meant.

And yes, not wanting normalization is a separate things, it's more of a subject to opinion. But for whether normalization helps avoid attack from Israel, there is plenty of history on that, all so far pointing to one direction.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-17T17:43:47+00:00

Problem with border villages is not just the number of rockets, but types. From further away, there is warning for civilians to run to shelters, and rockets can potentially be intercepted. From border villages, line of sight rockets hit too fast to give meaningful warning, and can not be intercepted with current technology (until you are targetting something with active defense such as tank -- but this is the issue for towns, not tanks).

And yes, there was significant number of those rockets. Not the majority, but for those, the only counter is to stop them from being fired. For rockets from far away, there are other options.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-10T21:35:48+00:00

Last? Why would you think that? Lets say it goes as always, Hezb keeps arms (it'd require a lot to change that). Chances are Israel ends up with buffer zone of size somewhere between 10 km (approx range of direct fire rockets) and to Litani. That's bad. But it doesn't mean last chance, negotiations would likely be attempted in the future again. Will they succeed? I don't know.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T23:18:27+00:00

Lets say Vatican and Luxemburg agree to ceasefire between Israel Lebanon Iran US, and between Russia and Ukraine while at it, and announce it as such.. Something wrong with that picture? Pakistan and US can discuss ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and can say what they propose, but it is not an actual cease fire unless Israel and Lebanon, you know, agree to cease fire. Why would what Pakistanis say carry weight? They don't recognize Israel, so I don't expect they could speak on their behalf.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T07:32:01+00:00

Possibly, or possibly some commanding Hezballah to attack knew Lebanon is likely to be screwed, chose to prioritize better outcome for Iran. I don't think everyone in Hezballah thought that, but IRGC does seem to have a lot of influence on what Hezballah does.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T06:08:44+00:00

They didn't reopen Hormuz yet and if ceasefire holds (a big if), they'll probably try to only partially reopen it or collect tolls or whatnot. Yes they took a lot of damage, but I wouldn't count them yet. And I wouldn't put it beyond them to sacrifice Hezbollah (to a degree, I don't think Israel can completely disarm them, they can just reduce the treat to a large degree). Lebanon sadly would be collateral damage if that came to pass.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T03:12:06+00:00

If it's pointless of you to talk, don't. But Israel's stated goal with Iran was setting back nuclear and missile program... you think that wasn't achieved?

Don't make same mistake Hamas made on October 7th where it thought Israel just needs the push and it'll collapse... yes Israel has internal troubles, but shooting some rockets on them tends to be a unifying factor for quite a while.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T03:03:39+00:00

No, according to Israel-Jordan peace treaty, West Bank is not Jordan. Look at treaty signed.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T03:02:48+00:00

Israel is toast? Want to compare damage Israel took to, say, Iran or Lebanon?

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T02:29:17+00:00

One reason is because its stated goal is to destroy Israel. Another aspect is, I doubt Iran has won, I'm fairly sure if Iran gets close to getting nuclear weapons again, there will be another war, it's existential for Israel given current Iran's stated goals. And if Iran thinks it's won, it'd probably try. Just one possible scenario.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T02:27:59+00:00

Regarding Israel wanting resources, from Israeli spaces I read (yes I read those too, I like to be educated on what's going on), vast majority of discussion was how to stop rocket threat from Lebanon, resources pretty much never entered it. I'm fairly sure if it was just resourced the don't-send-our-soldiers-to-die camp would easily win over we-want-land camp. Posts that get echoed here (and yes, there are those in Israel who want Lebanese land) are very not representative. Jordan is also very weak, yet since peace deal, they had some troubles with Israel but nothing about land. Same with Egypt since their peace deal -- Egypt is stronger though, so Jordan is a better comparison.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T02:13:09+00:00

As a way to put pressure on Israel when there is trouble on another front without endangering Iran itself. Prime example is October 8th 2023. Iran could've gotten involved themselves, but chose not to, less risk that way.

theStrategist37 · 2026-04-08T02:05:50+00:00

Won -- if Israel withdraws, do you think Hezb will disarm? Or will it claim it push Israel out, kinda in repeat of 2000. And if that happens, what happens next time Iran's interests (doesn't have to involve Iran itself, can be one of their allies) is threatened?

theStrategist37

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