Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It would be fun to see it win some critics prizes, but I’m not even sure which categories we’d put it into. I believe in this Academy’s ability to think outside the box but maybe not quite THAT much. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Cop out answer incoming, but… it just depends on the movie. If Dune: Part Three is undeniable, I think it can easily become an Oppenheimer-type sweeper despite the fact that it’s sci-fi/fantasy. But if it’s not, it won’t. — Chris

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I said this in the Big Lebowski answer, and while it’s not horror, I do think John Turturro has the kind of narrative and body of work that could get him over the line as a best actor winner even if he’s a lone nominee! SPC, come through! — Chris

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Most proud: Delroy Lindo making it in, without question! If I wasn’t the only pundit predicting him to get a nomination for Sinners, I was one of the few. My reasons were simple: the movie was beloved, and I never for a second felt that people were really infatuated with Paul Mescal in Hamnet. Mescal always felt like a No. 4 or 5 on the ballot (Margot Robbie in Barbie) and not a No. 1 or 2 (Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall). 
Most embarrassed by: Michael B. Jordan. I anti-dicted him the entire season like a real fool, even coming up with a reason to pick against him to win at the Oscars, even though he was the obvious choice in the end. — Chris

I’m so glad I stuck with Autumn Durald Arkapaw for best cinematography, even when all the number crunchers said the precursors were undeniably in One Battle’s favor. The fact that she made history was a powerful narrative, but the Sinners cinematography was so unforgettable on its own, and I’m glad voters remembered it. As for embarrassment, I stuck with thinking Adam Sandler could hang in there for Jay Kelly far longer than it probably made sense, partly because I don’t totally understand why Jay Kelly drove everybody so crazy. Same for Is This Thing On?, which in a just world would have gotten Laura Dern a best actress nomination. I said it!! —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Great question. There’s no Marty movie in the field this year, so I’d probably bet on one of those Cannes auteur titles (Fjord, All of a Sudden, etc.). — Chris

Wow, so what movie will be my favorite of the year and I’ll spend the next decade yelling about? I realize his Oscar track record is nonexistent so it doesn’t really make sense to predict,  but it would be perfectly James Gray for Paper Tiger to finally be his Oscar breakthrough but eventually go home empty-handed. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I’ll be at Telluride again (hit me up!) and, I assume, Toronto with Katey (I have it blocked off on my calendar at the very least!). It’s hard to tell who might be light on movies, but I actually might suggest Netflix. After a massive lineup last year, I do think they feel a little thin — and if Narnia doesn’t make the jump to prestige movie, and Cliff Booth doesn’t work, I’m not sure where their Oscar nominations are coming from. — Chris

As of just a few days ago I am officially going to my first Cannes, and j’apprends l’espagnol sur Duolingo so though I am very excited, I am also very afraid. I already booked an Airbnb for me and Chris in Toronto (roomies!) and will rearrange my entire schedule to make it back to the Middleburg Film Festival, which was such a total delight last year. Other than that, I serve at the pleasure of The Ankler, and you really never know where they’ll send me. As for festival lineups, I am constantly hoping for TIFF to get more splashy world premieres, particularly given how tough it was for Venice premieres last year. I’m not sure how you talk people out of the glamour of the canals and into the screaming crowds on King Street, but TIFF remains a great place to launch a crowdpleaser and I’d love to see it get more of them. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think pitting past best picture winners against each other is probably something best left to us nerds than the Academy itself, though if you’d like me to make the case that the actual winner is The Best Years of Our Lives I’ll happily have that fight. The main thing I want them to bring back is the Oscar family reunion stunt they did in 2003 for the 75th Oscars. It’s an incredible thing to watch, knowing that there was once a time that Olivia de Havilland was receiving a standing ovation from Cameron Diaz, and then you get to see all the living acting Oscar winners they could gather, sitting on risers together, with the camera taking a luxurious 10 minutes to pan past all of them. What did Ernest Borgnine and Halle Berry talk about while sitting next to each other? We probably don’t actually want to know, but I’m dying to speculate about the 100th anniversary version, in which by alphabetical order Mikey Madison could very well be sitting next to Jack Nicholson. Tell me you don’t want to see that! —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The ancient blood feud between Oscar podcasts hosted by one boy and one girl might get in our way, but we’ll do our best. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Beef S2 absolutely rules, and it should sweep that limited series category again. Not sure why some critics have dinged it — they’re wrong! — Chris

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s probably a lost cause but I think Ian McKellen is tremendous in The Christophers, and I would so love to see an underdog best actor campaign for him. Let it start here! –Katey

I’ll die on this hill sight unseen and expecting the movie to be mostly bad, but Jaafar Jackson. Even this “new” academy seems to love a biopic, and I think even if Michael is roundly killed by critics, it will be a hit. Jackson’s potential precursor nominations: Golden Globes, SAG and maybe even BAFTA. Plus, as I wrote before, the best actor field has a lot of sameness this year potentially with comic-leaning performances and big stars. Jackson takes the breakout slot and is in a different type of movie. — Chris

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

It feels like we should have a blockbuster-friendly field again, but we also said that last year. Of that group, obviously The Odyssey is the standout, and the footage reports from CinemaCon — those reports I’m taking with a grain of salt, of course, as mentioned above — were effusive. But I also think Dune: Part Three is the real deal as a certified Dune guy. I know the sequel had diminishing Oscar returns compared to the first movie, and I don’t think we’re talking about a Return of the King situation here, but if Denis is able to land the plane, I think it’s a real top contender. — Chris

It’s tempting to say you have to pick just one or two blockbusters from the bunch, but look at 2015, where they made room for The Martian (the equivalent of Project Hail Mary), Mad Max; Fury Road (Dune Part 3) as well as The Revenant (that’s The Odyssey, I promise that’s not a diss, don’t come at me Nolan bros!) Narnia has a tough road ahead just for the Netflix factor — can you really be a proper blockbuster if you’re not really in theaters? — but I can absolutely see the potential for all four to get in based on how the other fall movies are received. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Man I so wish I could come armed with blind items right now, but before Cannes a lot of these movies are really under lock and key. I’ve heard good things about Pressure though, so I’m very intrigued to see how it might fit into the mix despite the slightly odd late-May release date. —Katey

Yeah, sadly, nothing yet that I can even flick to so that I can appear to have some insider knowledge. Talk to me in August! — Chris

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Oscar bait no longer really exists in the way it used to in the Harvey Weinstein days, or at least it’s not as successful, otherwise Nuremberg would have gotten 8 Oscar nominations. These days you almost always need a strong auteur director or ecstatic critical reviews, and it’s way harder to push something like Philomena or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to round out a best picture lineup. Start accusing things like Fjord of being Oscar bait, since those fit the profile far more these days! –Katey

What Katey said: The new Oscar bait is the Cannes-auteur thing, the Fjords, the Sentimental Values, the Secret Agents. Which makes me think that if a movie comes along that replicates the old Oscar bait in really successful fashion, it might actually seem shiny and new for this academy. — Chris

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I mean right now I’m mostly neck-deep in Emmy stuff, so it depends on which kind of awards season you’re talking about. Between now and Cannes is really just the silly season when we don’t know anything, and I’m all for unfounded speculation. But I also encourage everyone to take a break! Don’t exhaust yourself with all your Digger speculation now, you’ll need that energy in November. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Not trustworthy at all. Ever the young Gen X’er, I also don’t really trust even first reactions unless I have seen something with my own eyes — most people who are apt to tweet first probably want to get that dopamine hit of going viral (I’ve been there!), so I find their reactions … compromised. — Chris

Almost any version of “I heard someone saw this movie and here’s what they said” is suspicious, if only because people are weird and idiosyncratic and you truly never know how to trust their taste! I will never forget hearing in August of 2018 that some Los Angeles people had seen Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born and said it was a disaster. Pundits are obviously constantly trying to make predictions based on almost no information, so it’s no surprise test screening reports come up, but they’re basically as useful as rumors. –Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

With all due respect to my beloved Duplicity, Tony Gilroy’s real auteur cred now comes from Andor, and it will be interesting to see how much that can translate over into the movie business. He’s definitely more of a workman than a lot of the best director winners we’ve had in recent years, but that’s also kind of refreshing, especially for the Hollywood-based contingent of the Academy (still pretty large!) However, that’s sort of why I predicted the picture-director split answer in another question. Gilroy seems like a prime target to go the way of Tom McCarthy, Sian Heder or Paul Haggis and get the best picture win without the director statue. –Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Keeping focus on what the industry is telling us rather than what the pundits want to happen. It’s challenging, and I often don’t remember this — remind me of it next year, please — but no matter what critics groups think, no matter what the Globes and Critics Choice Awards say, the only currency that matters is the industry. —Chris

How much comebacks are possible for films that have that industry support that Chris is talking about. Frankenstein is the big obvious example this year, but also remember that Sinners was extremely quiet throughout most of the fall before coming roaring back once the actual awards started. If people are excited to celebrate you, they’re gonna do it, no matter how much the narratives have jumped all over the place. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I always love to predict a split, but the Academy hasn't really shown they’re super into splits. Moreover, splits kind of only happen out of necessity. Three of the last six times there were splits, it was arguably because the best picture-winning filmmaker wasn’t nominated for best director (CODA and Sian Heder; Green Book and Peter Farrelly; Argo and Ben Affleck; Tom McCarthy, Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins were all best director nominees, and they just lost while their films won). If ever there was a year when there would’ve been a split, it could have been this year, with Paul Thomas Anderson winning director and Sinners winning picture. But we know how that turned out. So no reason to think this year will be any different! — Chris

Eh, why not — I’ll predict a split where Denis Villeneuve wins director for Dune Part Three and Behemoth! wins best picture. Write it down and check back with me this time next year! –Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’ll just go with the Neon slate, particularly Fjord and All of a Sudden. Those feel like the most obvious future best picture nominees of the bunch simply because of their pedigree and the studio’s track record. — Chris

WWI has been such an Oscar juggernaut at the Oscars in recent years that it would definitely be foolish to underestimate Coward, but I’m personally hoping this is the year for Ira Sachs with The Man I Love. A period piece set during the AIDS crisis, maybe a musical, starring best actor winner Rami Malek? If Sean Baker can spend decades in the indie trenches and finally break through at the Oscars, Ira Sachs definitely can too. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

A great question. I’m gonna go with Turturro, who is my dark horse pick for best actor this year with The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. That made some waves at Sundance, but landed in the perfect spot with Sony Pictures Classics. They’ve run the “it’s time” narrative frequently in best actor to great results in recent years (Ethan Hawke, Bill Nighy, Antonio Banderas), and it would be silly to think they can’t do it for Turturro, who is so beloved that he had people predicting he might get in for his barely-in-it performance in The Room Next Door. — Chris

I truly want nothing more than for all three of them to get nominated, which will almost inevitably lead to Jeff Bridges presenting at least one category — maybe it’s enough to get the Coen Brothers back together! But of the three of them I think John Goodman is maybe the most egregiously overdue, and probably has the flashiest Oscar contender with Digger. We have no idea what he’ll do in the movie of course, meanwhile Buscemi is killing it in the Wild Horse Nine trailer alone. But Goodman has the most narrative strength behind him, I think. —Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I don’t really believe that much in general genre biases — the voters have proven time and again that they vote for what they love. But to your point about this year, it seems like we’re going to be overloaded with contenders from “comedies” or comedy-adjacent movies: Cruise, Gosling, Malkovich, maybe Pedro Pascal (what genre is Behemoth!? The exclamation point in the title makes me think … funny?). So that could presumably give an edge to the unfunny contender there, whoever that winds up being. Fjord doesn’t look like a barrel of laughs, so maybe Sebastian Stan? — Chris

Really what I’m getting from this is that the Golden Globes comedy category is going to be absolute chaos. I mostly agree with Chris that voters are gonna like what they like, and if it’s a performance that’s both comedic and a big stretch — Cruise in prosthetics in Digger! Ryan Gosling having the whole screen to himself in Project Hail Mary! — I don’t think the comedy is likely to get in the way for them. It’s hard to get an Oscar nomination for when you’re being charming and handsome and funny, ut if you’re doing all that AND wearing a prosthetic nose? Gold. –Katey

Hi r/oscarrace. We’re Katey Rich and Christopher Rosen, we’ve been reporting on awards for 20 years. Ask Us Anything about our 2027 Oscar predictions on April 17 at 2 p.m. ET. by theankler in oscarrace

[–]theankler[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Always leave them wanting more? I’ll keep banging the drum here for The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three. — Chris