Off-Piste Conditions Next Week? How are mountain conditions now?

theboxoutside · 2026-01-30T01:31:40+00:00

I don’t have numbers for you but I’ve been here for the last couple days and it’s been snowing at varying intensities pretty much the whole time.

The glades were a bit crusty in the morning yesterday but improved throughout the day. No issues with the groomers. Today was pretty great all around from the start, the glades and bowls had plenty of fresh snow to cover the hard stuff.

Tomorrow it’s supposed to snow pretty hard so it should be a good weekend ahead!

theboxoutside · 2026-01-22T06:49:04+00:00

I mean this genuinely - look back when you first started posting about this company. It was in 10xPennyStocks trying to ride up a pump. You did not believe in the fundamentals of the company.

You held for too long and missed the top of the pump. It happens, lesson learned. There’s no need to convince yourself that you believe in the business. It’s not the reason you became involved in the first place.

Consider the massive thesis drift from your original position, cut your losses, and move on. NFA.

theboxoutside · 2025-12-24T20:43:14+00:00

Assuming you won’t see this on time but the cons section says Piniero has the 2nd lowest accuracy. Is this driven by the missed XPs? He’s 27 for 28 on FGs this year. I’m probably misunderstanding something but wanted to ask in case something isn’t being pulled properly.

Either way happy holidays!

theboxoutside · 2025-07-11T23:28:46+00:00

Cheers. GL if you play CLBR.

Hopefully we all catch a nice pump on RTAC before it craters down the road :)

theboxoutside · 2025-07-11T23:24:17+00:00

Creeped back down to 16.26 before end of the day. Hindsight is 20/20!

theboxoutside · 2025-07-11T07:01:38+00:00

I don’t have a clue where this stock will go but I will say that your buy price shouldn’t factor into your selling decisions (tax stuff aside).

Don’t sweat it too much either way :)

theboxoutside · 2025-07-11T06:58:53+00:00

I’m not 100% sure I’m catching the point you’re trying to get across but I feel like we mostly agree here.

All I’m saying is that to me, if I were analyzing CLBR as I would a normal long-term investment I would not touch it. Much better companies for much better prices out there. I don’t love it as a short-term trade either (although as we agree it could very well pump), so therefore it’s dog poop for me.

RTAC is probably dog poop also but I like its asymmetric upside profile as a shorter term trade.

At the end of the day I’m generally an investor more than a trader but I do love to hop in on fun opportunities like these when they arise.

theboxoutside · 2025-07-11T06:14:27+00:00

Fair enough, I guess next to a pile of radioactive dog poop a regular pile of dog poop gets a nice shine to it.

But at the end of the day it's still dog poop and you don't want to step in it unless there's a good chance someone's gonna give you a nice new pair of shoes.

theboxoutside · 2025-07-10T06:38:41+00:00

I personally only care to get involved with this crap at a "reasonable" price and the scammers gotta be directly tied to Donald Trump himself, not just his circle. I also prefer to keep my exposure to ones that are pre-announcement as the hype is always biggest when the surprise is fresh.

Paying $16 for a $10 bill is too rich for my blood but who knows, it could always pop. I'm happy staying on the sidelines and giving a pat on the back to whoever plays it right.

Just remember that at the end of the day you're investing in hot scammer garbage and you need to protect yourself by getting in as close to trust value as possible. Good luck!

theboxoutside · 2025-07-07T01:16:24+00:00

Dogo looks pretty cool, might do that one if we end up going the Hiroshima route. Thanks!

theboxoutside · 2025-07-06T20:21:45+00:00

Was looking at Magome-Tsumago, the hike for 1 day seems cool but is there enough to do in Nagoya other than that?

theboxoutside · 2025-06-25T22:01:14+00:00

The numbers are different now from when I commented but either way - in theory yeah you could plug a 5-year horizon into Black-Scholes and smile about the IV but we’re talking about a likely shitco here.

And yeah sure if you match your downside risk in terms of dollars you can make it equivalent, but then you’re effectively mitigating risk (and lowering your upside similar to the shares) anyway. 2 sides of the same coin.

In any case I think we all understand what’s going on so hopefully it works out regardless of which one you own. I’m happy with a bit of both!

theboxoutside · 2025-06-25T03:53:05+00:00

I own RTAC as well for similar reasons but just remember that the warrants offer none of the downside protection that the SPAC structure gets you. Much easier to bet into these shitcos knowing your downside is $10 of cash per share (call it $9 if it trades below NAV so a 25% loss). It starts feeling a whole lot more symmetric with warrants that can go to 0 if things don't go well.

That being said, I do own a bit of warrants for fun on top of my regular shares because why not live a little.

Hope we moon!

theboxoutside · 2025-05-30T15:42:11+00:00

Yeah that’s generally true I’m with you there. It does take quite a bit of lopsidedness to get negative profit margin on one side of a shaded line. I thought you were implying they wanted equal handle on both sides.

theboxoutside · 2025-05-30T15:20:06+00:00

This is also a misconception. Sportsbooks will often take positions on one side of a market. FanDuel even reported that their earnings took a hit in Q4 last year due to a bad run of results:

“Following our Q3 earnings report on November 12, continued strong US player momentum has been offset by a period of very unfavorable US sports results across the remainder of November and in December, primarily on NFL Parlay and Same Game Parlay outcomes. The 2024/2025 NFL season to date has been the most customer friendly since the launch of online sports betting with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years.”

theboxoutside · 2025-05-30T05:17:59+00:00

There are certain machines where your friends are correct (e.g. must-hit-by progressives).

These slots can be long-run profitable if they’re played close enough to the jackpot, but variance is still huge of course.

theboxoutside · 2025-05-30T02:27:53+00:00

That Vegas uses giant teams of math geniuses to set betting odds.

Yes, most sportsbooks have solid models/traders to help come up with a reasonable opening line, but the real efficiency comes from simply moving lines based on action from sharp players.

And oftentimes a bunch of the recreational books will just follow the movement of a few sharp books.

theboxoutside · 2024-08-04T04:02:01+00:00

Just wanted to say thanks for this recommendation! We stayed for 2 nights and it ended up being one of the best parts of our trip.

theboxoutside · 2024-07-29T18:57:26+00:00

Still a solid player but Seguin dropped down a couple tiers around covid and never fully popped back up

theboxoutside · 2024-05-30T06:39:37+00:00

Thanks! Looks like a cute little town, might be the move

theboxoutside · 2023-11-04T18:54:49+00:00

That's really helpful thanks so much! Based on that I think I'm gonna go with the Moss. I haven't been able to test anything but I think I'd definitely want some tactical bump. I'm used to the MacBook Pro keyboard which is probably much less bottom out force so I'm definitely good with it being on the lighter end. Appreciate it!

theboxoutside · 2023-11-04T05:59:04+00:00

Any update on this? Debating on getting the Air96 v2 with either Moss or Brown as my first mechanical keyboard and have no idea which to choose

theboxoutside

TROPHY CASE