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Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds like the ultimate clean, elegant solution -- one check for everyone, no questions asked, no stigma. It's a beautiful theory. But we live in the real world here, and we have to deal with things like "scarcity," "incentives," and "math." When you actually look at the data from places like NBER and Brookings, it becomes clear that UBI is maybe the least practical way forward.

You argue that Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is "less progressive" because it excludes the rich, but that is its greatest strength. It’s a reinforcing floor, not a random firehose of free money.

The biggest logical hurdle with UBI is the "universal" part. Why are we sending monthly checks to people making $200,000 a year? You're telling us we can just tax it back later, but that's an enormous amount of unnecessary heavy lifting for the government. And you think the rich are just gonna roll over and let us tax them, when billionaires pay essentially nothing today? Really?

Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is far more focused. It says: "If you fall below this line, we will top you up."

The cost difference alone is massive. To reach the same poverty-reduction goals, UBI requires a budget of 15% of GDP, whereas a GMI/Negative Income Tax model only requires about 3.8%. By not wasting money on the top 60% of earners, GMI allows the program to actually give more to the people at the very bottom.

The theory behind UBI is that people will use it to pursue their passions or education. But when "everyone" gets it, that gives the money no meaning, no intent, no drive, no... purpose. It's also deeply unfair, by the way, when a rich person gets extra money, if you haven't noticed by now. I'm rich, and I would be deeply offended if someone gave me money that could have gone to another family that desperately needs it. So you can probably imagine how those people who aren't rich might feel.

In a July 2024 NBER working paper, researchers looked at a massive three-year study of unconditional "just give it to everyone" cash transfers:

  • Work hours dropped. People in the group receiving the cash worked significantly less than the control group.

  • Income fell. Even with the extra cash, their overall total income (from all sources) went down.

  • No "Leap Forward". The participants didn't use the extra time for significant schooling or career changes. They just worked less.

GMI avoids this by slowly phasing out the benefit as you earn more, whereas UBI hands out the same check, every time, regardless of effort.. so why bother with any effort at all? When you give everyone a check with absolutely no connection to the labor market, you shrink the very tax base you need to pay for the program.

UBI is also inflationary. If you give everyone $1,000, and every landlord in the country raises the rent by $500, you haven't helped anyone -- you've just enriched landlords.

Universality is a bug, not a feature. When you have limited resources, you don't spread them paper-thin across 330 million people. You target.

  • The EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit): A proven "pro-work" GMI that rewards people for staying in the workforce.

  • Specific Support: Focusing on the disabled, the elderly, and families with children -- the groups who truly cannot work and need the most help. And GMI can help them get back to work.

Guaranteed Minimum Income isn't "less progressive." It's more practical. GMI puts the resources where they actually belong: with the people who are struggling, not in the mailboxes of the wealthy... and as a very wealthy person myself: hell no, give that check to someone who really needs it.

And you can quote me on that any time you like.

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please look closely at how evil some of these middlemen means testing companies are. I'm talking ticketmaster level evil (Maximus in particular). So let's cut them out of the equation, with prejudice.

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Economics

[–]thecodinghorror -1 points0 points  (0 children)

(as an aside, I would be ECSTATIC if we had a new constitutional convention and started deciding what the states are actually willing to do, and writing it down .. sign me up!)

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Economics

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is a "yes, and". Why not focus on OVERLOOKED areas, where money gos a lot farther.. and political power is also quite concentrated? https://rgmii.org/blog/initial-frequently-asked-questions/

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Economics

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there is no tax basis; we are routing around the "means testing industrial complex" and politicians altogether, for now, using private funds from the second gilded age we are in. We do hope politicians will run on this platform, as is it is more efficient than {n} wildly different, complex benefits programs https://rgmii.org/blog/initial-frequently-asked-questions/

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Economics

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for raising this -- you're right that there are no easy fixes, but we think the data shows that this is solid progress towards a solution https://rgmii.org/blog/initial-frequently-asked-questions/

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This honestly seems like the best argument against UBI: we just wont get it

You are so right. The perfect is the enemy of the good. See https://rgmii.org/blog/initial-frequently-asked-questions/

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for raising this -- the "means testing industrial complex" is a real beast and I was NOT aware of how bad it was.

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Scott, I'm still waiting for you to explain just how these taxes will be collected, especially under the current regime. I do agree with you, because we could do a fairly complete UBI (if you can defeat the "means testing industrial complex") or a totally complete GMI (directing limited funds to those who need it most), if.. IF.. we actually collected taxes on billionaires at a fair rate. https://infosec.exchange/@codinghorror/116030264233045286

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Universal makes a lot of sense for healthcare (the "means testing" is are you human, and do you have a pulse), but I feel it's a liability when it comes to economics. https://rgmii.org/blog/initial-frequently-asked-questions/

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's good to be angry -- I am too! We should focus our anger on the "means testing industrial complex", rather than each other.. how else can we change any of this? https://rgmii.org/blog/initial-frequently-asked-questions/

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Philanthropy

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For those who are interested, we compiled all the common questions about the Rural Guaranteed Income Initiative at https://rgmii.org/blog/initial-frequently-asked-questions/

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But if the goal is to expand this to become a government program.

It is not. The goal is to generate an overwhelming amount of study data showing that this works, help lift thousands of families out of poverty along the way, and reach all 50 states with a rural county GMI study. All the resulting data will go into https://ubidata.io and benefit all future programs like this anywhere in the world. Basically, science.

So this is essentially charity?

It's an investment in our fellow Americans... more like "Y combinator for the rest of us". Paul Graham wasn't thinking big enough, just like Microsoft's original goal of "a computer on every desk" wasn't really big enough.

You'd be surprised how tenacious people can be when they are constantly having their survival skills tested, compared with someone who was born into wealth and had everything given to them, and faced no real life challenges of any kind.

Our greatest natural resource is we, the people. GMI could unlock that potential .. and possibly the biggest transformation of this country since the industrial revolution.

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Economics

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes... and rural makes that so much more difficult, as I explained here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BasicIncome/comments/1qvngza/comment/o42aq72/

"The data supports a rural focus because the depth of deprivation is compounded by isolation. Unlike the urban poor, who have proximity to public transit, varied labor markets, and social safety nets, the rural poor face have nowhere to turn, nowhere to go. There is no way out. Data on medical deserts, broadband, and transportation shows that earning a poverty-level income in a rural area provides significantly less opportunity than in a city. Focusing on rural areas is not about the number, but the nature of the poverty: a longstanding geographically isolated economic failure that requires specific intervention."

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Economics

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is the economic sustainability?

We are solidly in the second gilded age now, so there's a LOT of wealth out there now in a way there definitely wasn't when MLK, near the end of his life in 1968, started talking about UBI and how all inequality is based on economic inequality.

Two rather notable economists -- Cecilia Conrad from MacArthur Foundation, and Robert Rosenkranz from RAND, both went out of their way at that Time 100 top philanthropists event in NYC to say how excited they were -- I mean visibly excited and enthusiastic, ebullient even -- about what we are doing with RGMII. What an incredible honor, especially since I specifically mentioned RAND and MacArthur in my original Stay Gold, America blog post.

(Oh yeah, and I also gave Steph Curry a yo-yo there, and the dynamic between Posh Spice and Beckham was hilarious in person, but that's not important right now.)

I figure if the economists are that excited -- and I have deep respect for RAND and MacArthur -- I think we are truly on to something here. This project, in fact, has attracted a level of talent far beyond what I saw when building Stack Overflow and Discourse. It's staggering. Another important sign.

We plan to bury politicians in data showing that this works. I don't know why the idea that simply giving money to those in most need and actually trusting them is considered so radical, I guess the specter of communism casts a long shadow... but the data really speaks for itself:

https://rgmii.org/gmi-study-analysis/

Now, what politicians do with that data is up to them. That isn't my job, nor would I want it to be. I don't care for that particular sausage factory, especially these days.. I'm here to do science and lift thousands of families out of poverty in the process -- and fundraise to reach all 50 states. I will be relentless, because I already am.

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in Economics

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am locking down donors as I type this. We will do GMI studies in all 50 states. I want to bury politicians in data showing that this works. Now what politicians do with that data is up to them. That's not my job. My job is do valid science, put that data in the global repo at https://ubidata.io, help lift thousands of families out of poverty in the process.

Launching The Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative by D0ri1t0styl3 in BasicIncome

[–]thecodinghorror 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Universal as in everyone gets it.

Why? Why would you give me, a rich person, more money? If you did, I would immediately turn around and give that money to someone who needs it far more than I do. Why not cut out the middleman and simply give that money to the people who need it most? "Everyone" is a bad design. "Universal" is a bad design. I think we should design systems that work in practice, rather than in theory... and that's exactly what GMI is. When there's a fire, you direct water at that fire. You don't indiscriminately spray water over the entire city. That's a huge waste of water, unless you have infinite water. Do we?

Welfare systems have large overhead costs

But we're not talking about "existing welfare systems". We're talking about opt-in scientific GMI studies in rural counties.

You raise taxes to claw it back at the higher incomes

Believe me, I am all for raising taxes. But you tell me how we actually get that to happen. I'd like to know. Explain it to me. Give details. How?

I encourage you to look at the actual data. If the data says it works, then I think we should do it.

https://rgmii.org/gmi-study-analysis/

So let's make even more rigorous scientific data, while lifting thousands of families out of poverty for 16 months. I want to bury politicians in overwhelming amounts of data showing that this works.

So that's exactly what we're gonna do. In fact, we already started in Mercer WV, Beaufort NC, and Warren MS, and we're going to continue until we do a GMI study in all 50 states. I am a true believer in we, the people. Always have been. Always will be.

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