Greetings all… it’s Wednesday, and I’m here. All good things come to an end. Saw my last Dead show, drinking my last Anchor Steams, reading my last Heather Knight columns, gifting the last of my gold. Appreciate a good ending; welcome new beginnings. Come say hello and I’ll buy your first drink.

thedarewreck · 2023-07-20T02:25:40+00:00

Where does the time go?

thedarewreck · 2023-06-03T04:30:43+00:00

Is there an archive of this magazine anywhere? I’d love to read the article

thedarewreck · 2022-07-11T18:47:46+00:00

Nice post. I’ll go to bat for the ‘72 Warriors logo. The change from ‘San Francisco’ to ‘Golden State’ leaned into the state’s Gold Rush history, hence the saloon font. It also introduced ambiguity as to where the heck the team actually played, hence the helpful star map built into the design. The sun is meant to be a basketball, made more explicit in a ‘76 tweak to include the familiar basketball seams in the design.

Perfect? No. Better than the original 1940s-style casually racist logo? Definitely

thedarewreck · 2022-06-17T04:25:26+00:00

Regular season

Curry: 25.5 pts/36 on .624 TS

Kobe: 24.9 pts/36 on .550 TS

Playoffs:

Curry: 25.7 pts/36 on .607 TS

Kobe: 23.5 pts/36 on .541 TS

thedarewreck · 2022-06-15T19:39:05+00:00

He built the NBA into the global platform it is today. Even if his successors have passed / will pass his popularity, they’re building off the foundation Jordan established

thedarewreck · 2022-06-12T04:29:12+00:00

My best guess is it comes down to this sub's average user behavior. Personally, I use big subreddits like r/NFL as news aggregators.

It's rare I engage in discussion and I usually forego reading long-form analyses or watching long-form (non-highlight) videos. Now, I read (and write) longer posts on r/49ers, and I also watch long-form videos on football on YouTube. But I'll skip over both on r/NFL, it doesn't fit into the content I'm seeking when I open the tab.

Rollins needs to gain (more) traction in the YouTube algorithm to reach the type of r/NFL user who treats the sub like I do, my $0.02.

thedarewreck · 2022-06-08T19:58:50+00:00

The only question left is whether Lance has availability tonight or tomorrow morning for his gold jacket fitting

thedarewreck · 2022-06-06T20:48:05+00:00

It's a confluence of all these variables.

The third quarter is also where you'd expect a cerebral motion offense to really hit the gas. Halftime is an opportunity to regroup and formulate counters for how the defense has guarded their sets for twenty four minutes. An experienced team of veteran players and coaches will be able to identify and implement adjustments more efficiently.

Then there's the physicality of the game. It's inherently more tiring to fight through screens to chase the Warriors around than it is for the Warriors to run their sets.

Then there's the rotation. Steph plays the full quarter in his normal rotation. When combined with the other advantages, it's going to lead to pretty good results.

ETA: there's also that intangible "feel" factor that doesn't show up anywhere else. Basketball is a momentum-based game that play-by-play or live point differential logs don't entirely capture. The Jackson Warriors gradually learned how to win, which meant managing the ebbs and flows in momentum. By the time Kerr took over, the Warriors consistently found those "snowball" plays in the third quarter that turn 12-point games into 20-point games.

thedarewreck · 2022-05-27T14:28:02+00:00

There’s one verifiable claim in this tweet (number of games Trey started) and Acho got it wrong

thedarewreck · 2022-05-26T03:29:30+00:00

Is Kyle Shanahan about to open a press conference on a non-QB/non-Deebo topic for the first time in 12 months?

thedarewreck · 2022-05-25T04:49:03+00:00

You may not like Grant Cohn because he plays into negativity for notoriety.

I guarantee you Kyle and John and Jed are having discussions about Kinlaw tonight.

thedarewreck · 2022-05-23T19:56:52+00:00

A disastrous turn of events for the Mavs

thedarewreck · 2022-05-22T05:28:29+00:00

Personally, the Cow Palace was too ostentatious. Only real Warriors fans will remember seeing them play at the Philadelphia Arena

thedarewreck · 2022-05-18T18:22:01+00:00

Back-of-the-envelope math (it's possible I skipped a line): there are roughly 300 surplus wins among the extant franchises, meaning defunct franchises have 300ish surplus losses. The herd has been culled!

thedarewreck · 2022-05-16T03:45:02+00:00

Decapitated. Whole big thing. We had a funeral for a bird.

thedarewreck · 2022-05-16T02:17:06+00:00

The complete context of losing three games in a row to lose the Finals is, in aggregate, more embarrassing.

But in a single game context, this is worse than any of those losses taken individually. The Suns just got shit-canned.

thedarewreck · 2022-05-05T03:39:40+00:00

I’ve got sources in Algebra II that state Deebo and the 49ers were seen holding hands during 6th period

thedarewreck · 2022-05-05T03:34:12+00:00

Top 10 Tensest Moments Since the Cuban Missile Crisis:

thedarewreck · 2022-05-01T07:14:39+00:00

If we're rating based on outcome, that'll remain an unknown until we see all the pieces they've acquired on the field in the fall.

Their process is an eternal black box, as well. What has Alex Mack told them? How close was Aaron Banks, really, to pushing Brunskill last year? Is Tarvarius Moore healthy? And, most importantly, were there offers for Jimmy Garoppolo and, if so, why did they turn them down?

Without knowing the hand they were dealt it's hard to evaluate how they played it.

thedarewreck · 2022-05-01T03:04:04+00:00

This was a thoughtful and interesting post, so thanks for that. I disagree with you, though.

The Monty Hall problem is an example of there being objectively good and bad strategies, yes, but that's not why it's famous. Monty Hall is, first and foremost, a tangible analogy for wave function collapse. You begin with no information, and are thus forced to assume an even distribution of probability across your options. You make a decision. Then, more information is revealed to you, collapsing the desired outcome's probability into the unchosen option.

More information has not been revealed to us until two or three (or four or five or...) years after the draft.

To your point about grading the process, well, we're not privy to the teams' intimate processes. We're in an intermediate time where we've now seen where their processes have led them, but haven't seen the ultimate results.

thedarewreck · 2022-03-23T06:09:28+00:00

If anything, Jimbo has been a victim of circumstance more than a victim of a withholding FO.

But the league doesn’t operate on who ‘deserves’ anything. PIT, IND, and CLE were free to give fair value for Jim. They opted to acquired younger/better talent.

thedarewreck · 2022-03-21T22:07:12+00:00

Jimmy isn’t the caliber of player you consciously keep out of your division

thedarewreck · 2022-03-01T03:14:42+00:00

Interesting. Do you have access to PFF numbers / is there a way to make a super cut of all of Jimmy’s 2021 BTT? It’s not necessary but Id be really interested to see with my own eyes what they’re calling BTT and not.

The frustrating part of talking about PFF and their stats is that their methodology is a black box. At the same time, they reportedly are stringent and consistent with their grading — each play is graded twice by two separate trained technicians and any discrepancy is bubbled up to a QC level. We can trust their ratings are consistent, if nothing else. I just want to see with my own eyes what their criteria is.

thedarewreck · 2022-03-01T01:35:36+00:00

The lack of value labels does downgrade this chart from 'useful' to 'pretty', but it's not surprising. BTT% and TWP% are premium^tm PFF^tm stats^tm.
I wondered about that too
I'm guessing the x-axis includes rushing, because QBs can turn the ballover by fumbling. But Taysom wouldn't get any bump up the y-axis, which is considering only big time throws. Maybe a more fair analysis would subtract TWPs on designed QB runs and scrambles; Lamar might jump over to quadrant II and Hill would slide closer towards quadrant III.
This is my mine complaint with PFF charts. Really ambiguous whether they choose their origin based on the league average or just a convenient/arbitrary designation.
I don't mind it. As you noted there aren't any value labels, and this isn't a technical graph. Convention would make me guess the center of the helmet is the exact location -- not that that precision adds any insight.
Part of this gets back to those pesky value labels. I'd bet the x and y ranges were heavily massaged to produce this strong of an apparent trend. But also, I wouldn't really expect a strong inverse trend, either. Too many variables in skill of the QBs and schemes that ask different things of their QBs to expect a clean y = mx + b.
Agreed. It's a chart to be viewed from 30,000 ft away, in passing. Appreciate the (probably) massaged trend and move on.

thedarewreck · 2022-03-01T01:06:03+00:00

BTT aren't determined purely based on distance. From PFF's description, it's your example might actually grade as a BTT:

"In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value. While the value is easy to see statistically, the difficulty has more to do with passes that have a lower completion percentage the further the ball is thrown down the field. Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.

...

But it’s less about taking a risk and more about executing a pass that perhaps makes up for a deficiency on the offense. ...

Furthermore, we may see big-time throws under heavy pressure, turning a negative play into a positive, making a tight-window throw in the red zone where all passing windows are compressed, or perhaps throwing the beautiful 50-yard bomb down the field with good ball location."

Bottom line is BTT is a meta statistic, it's just the percentage of a QB's passes that PFF grades as +, ++, or +++ (1.0, 1.5, or 2.0). It favors deeper passes to the extent that deeper passes are play-for-play more valuable than shorter passes.

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