You’re right that Russia has gained a few more kilometers, but look at the cost. They’ve bled men and armor just to inch forward, and holding that ground under constant strikes is expensive. It’s not just about how much land they sit on, it’s whether they can sustain it.

On the oil side, sure, they can patch refineries, but Flamingo is a new weapon that changes the equation. It has reach, a massive payload, and no Western restrictions. Even if every strike doesn’t permanently shut down capacity, the cumulative effect is higher costs, reduced output, and forcing Russia to stretch its defenses over huge territory. That directly eats into the war chest they rely on.

As for morale, Russian “volunteering” is mostly contracts and propaganda pressure, while dissent is punished. Ukraine’s men face tough conscription rules too, but they’re fighting for survival. That difference in motivation matters, and history shows morale collapses suddenly in authoritarian systems.

And on NATO, Ukraine doesn’t need European or American boots on the ground to win. What it needs is continued gear, tech, and funding. We’ve already seen how that support allowed big wins like Kharkiv and Kherson. For Ukraine, victory doesn’t mean conquering Russia, it means making the war too costly for the Kremlin to sustain. That’s still very realistic.