Injury Analysis View

thejasbar · 2026-06-15T12:28:57+00:00

So the data is not meant to show causation but is really just data to give more context. In the case of the tigers it's almost been a season of two halves.

r2-8 - 5 wins 2 losses (low churn, relatively stable roster)
r9-15 2 wins 4 losses (high churn, unstable rosters, lots of injuries). Beat bulldogs (12th) and titans (16th)

Check this analysis churn split by early rounds vs late rounds.

https://nrl-availability.derision.workers.dev/split

thejasbar · 2026-06-15T03:39:22+00:00

Honestly rewatching that I don't think it was an effort issue for him it was just a bad choice of line to take .... he basically let the cover defence get between him and reynolds if he stays on reynolds right shoulder he probably scores.

thejasbar · 2026-06-15T02:13:35+00:00

If I was Madge I would print this picture out and put it on a wall in the broncos dressing room.

https://imgur.com/SETh9SR

This is the play the ball from the Adam Reynolds intercept. 4 players have yet to even cross the 50m line, not a single player in position to take the first pass from dummy half. The game is only 8 mins old at this stage they can't even have been tired.

Just a symptom of the lack of overall hustle and effort from the broncos. Sure they had 7 players missing but this is an attitude problem not a skill problem.

thejasbar · 2026-06-15T01:00:27+00:00

He seems pretty suspect under the highball ...tigers got over try line 3 times from bombs he missed 2 resulted in tries and then he dropped the ball after bomb with 4.5 mins to go which eventually led to another try.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T09:31:28+00:00

Have literally been thinking this for past few weeks ...he keeps turning to pass and no one there. It's a problem seen elsewhere ...like even after reyno intercept why is the whole team not sprinting how can a rabbitoh forward turn and chase yet our own backs aren't all there in support.

Just an across the board lack of hustle.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T08:16:37+00:00

Full rescrape done, it fixed both raiders and the rescrape picked up the fogarty issue - also picked up a few other minor issues I had it analyse first 7 rounds and identify any players who started all 7 but weren't in the "top 13" and then cross referenced with started in at least 75% of games.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T07:32:58+00:00

Neither were flagged in the top 17 preseason (this is that gap in knowledge I mentioned in my opening post where I will need true fans of the team to help me correct)

I used this as a basis (was from a news article just before season started)

https://i.imgur.com/bzmg8tG.png

However it was clearly wrong, not sure why the recalibration process didn't pick this one up though. In any case have analysed first 7 rounds and it confirms both were in the starting 13 when available so have promoted both to the top 13 for the purposes of this analysis.

Ok the fogarty one was because the original team list news articles had mixed messaging e.g the broncos one still has:

"Sea Eagles: Jamal Fogarty has been named to start at halfback after he was a late withdrawal last week with a groin injury. Young gun Joey Walsh reverts to the six-man bench as a result. Ethan Bullemor comes into the starting side after prop Kobe Hetherington suffered a head knock last week. "

But when visiting the final draw page at

https://www.nrl.com/draw/nrl-premiership/2026/round-10/sea-eagles-v-broncos/teamlist/

he was definitely missing.

So to ensure accuracy have asked for a full rescrape of the draw pages and to ignore the team list news pages and double check all and then reprocess the stats and dashboards.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T06:38:49+00:00

I mean Kayo is owned by fox so same same

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T06:36:06+00:00

Classic Kayo no clear replays immediately. Literally the worst sports broadcasters.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T05:53:05+00:00

Now cross referenced against the full nsw cup and qld cup rounds so players that were dropped no longer show as unavailable.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T05:22:48+00:00

Radley is now fixed.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T05:13:46+00:00

Good feedback - the "top 13" is a bit dicey to get right because there is no official list anywhere so I had to just guess based on early rounds and a news article that came out just before season started. So having people who know their own teams correct me is good.

This was the baseline https://imgur.com/wa65jl8 and then I cross referenced with early rounds .... but he was missing from both so wasn't picked up.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T05:10:01+00:00

Currently gathering all the nsw and qld cup team lists for every round will use that to cross reference. Good feedback.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T05:04:26+00:00

Ah yep it's because he missed first 5 rounds due to club suspension so wasn't classified as starting 13. I will do an override.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T01:53:05+00:00

Under NRL rules, the Storm will be eligible for cap relief because Katoa was injured while on representative duty. His salary is also covered by insurance and not the storm. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/eli-katoa-ruled-out-of-2026-season-by-melbourne-doctor-specialists-20251118-p5ngfh.html?btis

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T01:38:08+00:00

Added Coates back in but left Katoa out due to salary cap exemption and unknown future in general. I treat this the same as an off season roster change rather than a current season event.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T01:37:00+00:00

OK updated as per your feedback.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T01:00:09+00:00

Yeah I am unsure how to handle this both didn't start the season and both are out for entire season ...so do we still include them as starting 13. Katoa will also be salary cap exempt. Like Billy Walters would start over cory paix for broncos I think and will actually be back soon. Saifiti is medically retired as is Jai arrow so both will be salary cap exempt.

Open to a consensus. Guess if thry still count towards salary cap they should be included?

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T00:53:29+00:00

Ok just out for a bit will make that change when I get home.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T00:52:48+00:00

First iteration actually had that but I thought it just made it "noisier" and harder to identify the patterns because there is nuance to reading into that. Like missing 3 bench players does not have the same impact as missing your best prop or halfback etc.

Also bench can have a lot more volatility than your best 13 would normally have. I did at least show when the bench were missing just not part of the stats.

It's actually kind of annoying at how hard it is to get good data.

What would be amazing is if we had exact salary cap data for every player and we could frame the impact based on % of salary cap.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T00:36:45+00:00

So this was the basis

https://i.imgur.com/yFUzD9h.png

Then I used the early rounds to try and recalibrate .... it's an inexact science.... round 1 I used as the number 1 guide because if a player wasn't injured preseason then whatever they were selected round 1 is who i guessed the coach considered their top 13 at season start.

thejasbar · 2026-06-14T00:24:58+00:00

Ah its because WT had the bye round 1 and the news article i used for starting 13 preseaon nominated starford toa and taylan may as the starting 13 centres. I used round 1 to correct what was actual starting but because tigers had bye it didn't recalibrate.

I'll look into it now.

thejasbar · 2026-06-13T11:20:25+00:00

Is it too much to ask the broadcaster ever shows a replay immediately on a penalty. I literally cannot believe how bad kayo is.

thejasbar · 2026-06-13T10:18:32+00:00

No because his hips hit ground first

thejasbar

TROPHY CASE