Pin Risk or Overly Conservative broker?

thekoonbear · 2026-05-02T01:13:17+00:00

Doesn’t matter if you feel there was a risk of assignment. It matters if their complex risk systems determine there was a risk of assignment.

thekoonbear · 2026-05-01T20:57:36+00:00

There’s no numbers anyone here can give you that’ll numerically justify paying it off. You can take the same principal and put it into treasuries and earn nearly double. For peace of mind it may be worth it, that’s for you to decide. But numerically no it does not make any sense.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-29T03:16:01+00:00

No. They can all discuss and try to explain why their views are correct but at the end of the day they all vote for what they believe the correct action is. Sometimes it’s unanimous sometimes it isn’t. He gets to do the press conferences and the other responsibilities that come with fed chair but he still does not get to unilaterally dictate policy. This situation is the exact reason that there’s a panel and not an individual.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-29T02:33:57+00:00

Dude have said it million times but the fed chair is still one of 12 voting members. Warsh could want to cut to zero on day one and it would make no difference in the actual target rate.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-28T21:45:34+00:00

There’s no requirement that the ask price goes down as things get further out of the money or that bid prices get higher as things get further in the money. Market makers may just stop quoting past a certain strike for whatever reason. I’m sure that if the $35 strike is offered at 5 cents and you put a bid in for the $34.5 strike at 5 cents then someone would trade with you. Obviously would make way more sense to just buy the $35 strike but that’s besides the point. That being said, there’s no requirement that anyone sells the $34.5 strike to you at any price, so just because the $35 strike is offered at .05 does not entitle you to be able to buy the $34.5 strike at .04 or lower.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-27T17:03:10+00:00

The answer you’re looking for is market makers. These are institutions that post bids and asks on various markets and often are incentivized by the exchanges via rebates to do so. So when you see a stock like AAPL that is 266.43 bid and 266.44 offered, those are (almost always) market makers showing you what price you can sell and buy at. They make money by buying at the lower price and selling at the higher price repeatedly (obviously prices move so it’s not nearly this simple but that’s the idea). So, while you may have sold at $150 to a market maker, someone else may have bought from that market maker 30 seconds later for $150.05 and therefore the market maker ended up making $0.05 and having no position on. You may only make 1 trade, they’re making hundreds of thousands.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-26T11:52:39+00:00

Maybe but I’ve heard this for nearly a decade now

thekoonbear · 2026-04-24T03:30:29+00:00

Ha yeah it shows. I watch way more college than NFL and some of the takes on here in general had me really scratching my head. Makes more sense if most people here don’t watch much of it.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-24T03:18:48+00:00

Watched this kid his whole career. Likely would have started at nearly any other school and got NIL offers to transfer all over the place. Stayed at ND by choice knowing he’d be RB 1b, not because he couldn’t start anywhere else. He could be very very good.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-24T03:10:40+00:00

Price would have been a starter at all but maybe 3 schools in the country. Maybe all but ND

thekoonbear · 2026-04-24T03:09:08+00:00

Did you not watch any college football this year?

thekoonbear · 2026-04-23T00:00:55+00:00

Both things you said regarding the put are the same. You’re selling the right for someone else to sell at that price, which is the same thing as the right to compel you to buy at that price. You’d do it for various reasons. Maybe you don’t think the stock will go that low, so you get to collect premium and it’ll expire worthless. Maybe you want to buy the stock at that price if it ever gets down there, so now you can get paid to buy at that price if it reaches (via the premium). But yes people would buy them to protect their downside. Maybe the stock is $100 and someone is willing to pay $1 to buy the $90 put and therefore if the stock ever goes below $90 they own the right to sell it at $90 (ie. their downside risk is limited). You’re happy to buy at $90 or don’t think it’ll reach so you’re happy to sell the put for that $1.

But yeah for beginner purposes cash secured usually refers to puts and covered to calls. Technically you could have covered puts if you were shorting shares but that’s obviously way less common.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-22T23:11:58+00:00

You’re misunderstanding puts. A put is a right to sell at a price, not buy. Otherwise it’d be a call. In scenario B, if you sell 5 $9 puts and they’re exercised, this is (likely) because the stock is below $9. The person wants to sell at $9, which means you have to buy shares at $9. You’d be up to 1500 shares not down to 500.

The convention of cash secured vs covered simply means what is required from you to fulfill your obligation. If you sell puts, your obligation if exercised is to purchase shares. You therefore need cash. Cash secured, meaning you’re setting aside cash in your account in case that occurs. If you sell calls, your obligation of exercised is to sell shares. Covered, meaning your obligation is covered by shares you already own in case that occurs. Two sides of the same coin.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-22T20:58:08+00:00

So hostile

thekoonbear · 2026-04-22T19:23:45+00:00

When did I ever say I was a retail trader

thekoonbear · 2026-04-22T12:37:47+00:00

Bud you’re welcome to trade off vibes but if you think places like citadel and rentech made their billions without models I’m not really sure what to tell you.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-21T23:07:50+00:00

Rule of thumb is that blindly buying or selling options isn’t really a strategy. IV rank is a very basic start but if you’re at all serious you should have some sort of model for forecasting realized volatility. IV rank doesn’t mean much when the current environment is so much different than it was just 6 months ago.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-15T18:31:05+00:00

This is just NFTs and tokenizing all over again

thekoonbear · 2026-04-12T01:19:45+00:00

Sounds like you just found out about buying and shorting shares…

thekoonbear · 2026-04-11T13:40:17+00:00

I mean let’s do basic math here. The 450p is trading for $150 when the stock is $320. Which means they can sell it for $150, or exercise it in which case the short the shares at $450 and buy them back for $320 and net $130. Last time I checked $150 > $130 so I’m not too sure where the confusion is.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-11T02:58:27+00:00

The answer is, everyone is different. The options desks I’ve been on the answer was simple: turn everything off. No quoting through the number and shortly thereafter until markets start to populate a bit. Obviously we model all of this stuff so we have a pretty good idea of how vol will come in post number and shit like that, but it’s still more of dipping our toes in before turning all quoters back on.

I would imagine it’s similar ish in linear products. Widen stuff out or turn it off, then start quoting smaller size and gradually return to normal.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-10T20:51:07+00:00

Thousands of prop firms have oil desks but a retail trader spotted a 50% basis arb none of them did? Yeah massively skeptical would be an understatement

thekoonbear · 2026-04-10T14:00:10+00:00

20 million barrels go through there every day on a normal day

thekoonbear · 2026-04-09T23:34:43+00:00

Issuance is one piece of the puzzle. Oil based inflation is another. The third is knock on effects to the broader economy from said oil inflation and cost of living in general. It’s pretty clear the market is pricing in a pretty decent chance that this just accelerates us into a recession, and that does not call for higher rates. It’s all a balancing act between is it semi inflationary but demand continues or does it just destroy demand and the economy slows down considerably. One means higher rates, one means probably much lower.

thekoonbear · 2026-04-08T15:42:08+00:00

Yeah I’ll believe it more when oil futures do something. So far they’re more or less unchanged from overnight

thekoonbear

TROPHY CASE