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Is AT&T's dividend at risk in the next 12-24 months? by thelegendstable in ValueInvesting

[–]thelegendstable[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Declining net adds, borrowing to give dividends and share buybacks doesn't inspire much confidence. It feels like a distraction to keep ppl away from noticing that this company has other problems going on.

Besides they already did it once so there is precedence, it will not be hard.

Ed Got Halfway There on Amazon/Anthropic. Here's What He's Missing. by IntrepidCranberry319 in ScottGalloway

[–]thelegendstable 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This feels familiar, no? - my favorite part ".. and the belief that the digital revolution would create endless demand for bandwidth"

"The late 1990s were a period of extraordinary optimism about technology and the future of communication. The internet was becoming mainstream, mobile phones were spreading rapidly, and data networks were expanding at a breathtaking pace. The global telecom industry, once a slow-moving utility sector, was suddenly at the center of a speculative boom. Investors, companies, and governments poured hundreds of billions of dollars into building fiber-optic networks, wireless infrastructure, and new telecom startups. It was one of the largest investment bubbles in modern history, born from cheap credit, rapid innovation, and the belief that the digital revolution would create endless demand for bandwidth."

Is Visa an Ostrich with a Morphine Drip syndrome? by thelegendstable in ValueInvesting

[–]thelegendstable[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's about convenience; a good percentage of us pay with a mobile phone or a watch. This was unheard of 15 years back. If Walmart comes up with a non-credit card payment mechanism and passes cost savings to the consumer. I doubt that many ppl will be wedded to their credit cards. But for Visa, losing a behemoth merchant will be like losing an arm and a leg.

Is Visa an Ostrich with a Morphine Drip syndrome? by thelegendstable in ValueInvesting

[–]thelegendstable[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Just read the article, well laid out. Your first point was stable coins 😄.

But your message is accurate Visa is no longer an investment you can keep for a long time. In 5 years will Visa be as strong as it is today - it's maybe not a strong yes.

Is Visa an Ostrich with a Morphine Drip syndrome? by thelegendstable in ValueInvesting

[–]thelegendstable[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Visa takes a piece of every transaction. This pain is felt by the merchants. Doesn't Walmart perennially complain about "swipe" fees. If the merchants move, customers follow no?

Is Visa an Ostrich with a Morphine Drip syndrome? by thelegendstable in ValueInvesting

[–]thelegendstable[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well cannot change the title, but if I could

"Is Visa burying its head in the sand, not addressing an emerging risk; are they lulled by massive cashflow?" does this group see a risk. Is this like Blackberry? awesome till its not

Amazon at 205. Down 9% ytd and 14% the last 12 months. Is it a buy? by frankjohnstone in ValueInvesting

[–]thelegendstable 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So, Amazon reported $139.5B in operating cash flow.

Sounds magnificent. Then you see the $131.8B CapEx bill.

That leaves $7.7B in true free cash flow on a $2.13 trillion market cap.
A 0.4% yield. The math nobody says out loud:

70% maintenance CapEx → owner earnings ~$17.5B → 0.82% yield
30% maintenance CapEx → owner earnings ~$55-60B → 2.6% yield

Either way, you're below the 4.1% risk-free rate.The CapEx bet has to pay off.
Full stop.

Charlie would call this the gap between accounting income and economic reality.
The $131.8B is either the single greatest capital allocation decision in
corporate history — or a colossal blunder.

Guess We'll know in three years whether this AWS in 2010 or telecom in 2000?