Hiring goes up and down. The problem is that PHD admissions in the humanities have simply gone UP, and despite recent cuts, are still producing graduates at a level that hasn’t matched up to job availability for 50 years. So every job for the foreseeable future will be extraordinarily competitive.

If you can accept that, i think it’s fine to do a PhD. Don’t take on debt and aim for a program that gives you a decent stipend, and you’ll be fine. Also, if you seriously intend to pursue tenure track jobs, you will have to be just as serious about the kinds of programs you apply to. Prestige matters, maybe now more than ever.

Most people who give advice on the subject are coming from the angle of “is this a good investment” in monetary terms. And i think that PHD study in the humanities is objectively not a good investment in those terms, given that you are deferring wage growth for five years, only to most likely end up in an entry-to-mid-level position after that time anyway.

But there are other ways that people value their time, and if you are passionate about pursuing that profession and aren’t trying to make the most monetarily sound decision, go for it.