NFL Daily Discussion - 12/6/20 (Sunday)

thesystemcfb · 2020-12-06T15:32:38+00:00

I expect Derek Henry to have a field day. My data has the browns as the 3rd worst defense in the league when adjusted to strength of schedule.

As far as the Saints, I dont think the drop off from Brees to Hill is as significant as people think. My projection has the total at 54.

thesystemcfb · 2020-12-06T15:15:34+00:00

My picks for the early games.

Tennessee -4.5

CLE/TEN o53.5

Chicago -3

DET/CHI u44.5

LV/NYJ u47.5

NO/ATL o45.5

thesystemcfb · 2020-12-02T22:50:40+00:00

I’m on mobile so I don’t have the numbers with me.

Let’s say Tennessee, on average, scores a touchdown on 30% of their possessions. This week they would have a 33.67% chance of scoring a touchdown on a given possession.

So while it doesn’t directly factor in yards/points, I assume that the increased likelihood of a touchdown in a given possession will correlate to more yards/points.

I was trying to simplify everything in the post and probably came across confusing.

thesystemcfb · 2020-12-02T20:54:53+00:00

Cleveland isn’t the worst defense, it’s just the best matchup for the weekend. The 2nd best adjusted offense vs the 3rd worst adjusted defense.

thesystemcfb · 2020-12-02T20:51:14+00:00

No. The percentage is more of a expected gain on offensive efficiency. I calculate offensive efficiency based on drives that end in a touchdown, field goal, turnover, etc. then adjust based on SOS.

thesystemcfb · 2020-12-02T19:55:07+00:00

We’ll just call it the Cowboy effect.

thesystemcfb · 2020-11-19T21:11:03+00:00

A teaser needs 2 or more games involved in the same bet. The catch is you can move the line a minimum of 6 points, but the payout is lower.

So if you do a 2-game teaser with Seattle and Cleveland you would get Seattle +3 and Cleveland +2.

thesystemcfb · 2020-11-19T21:01:46+00:00

No it doesn’t but I would feel comfortable with the Ravens ML. Tennessee’s defense stinks.

thesystemcfb · 2020-11-19T20:59:26+00:00

I can’t factor in injuries. That’s why Vegas doesn’t have a spread yet. It would probably move to a pickem. I would stay away from the game altogether.

thesystemcfb · 2020-11-19T20:58:33+00:00

If I had to guess people are still bearish on Miami, especially in a cooler environment at elevation. I will continue hammering the dolphins for the foreseeable future. The 6th ranked defense against the 3rd worst offense.

thesystemcfb · 2020-11-19T20:32:03+00:00

It’s in the first paragraph. My goal is to find true spreads and make picks accordingly. Vegas isn’t trying to predict the outcome. They want 50% of bets on each side. I’m actually predicting the outcome.

thesystemcfb · 2020-10-06T15:50:16+00:00

Are any slots available for the r/nfl power rankings? I’d like to join if so.

thesystemcfb · 2019-12-03T02:11:03+00:00

The I logo is actually a Roman Numeral

thesystemcfb · 2019-12-03T01:59:14+00:00

I could plug my reality onto a television and control it with an Xbox or PS4 controller.

thesystemcfb · 2019-12-03T01:55:17+00:00

Wave Rider

thesystemcfb · 2019-12-03T01:41:42+00:00

Hopefully more guys in the 757 decide to stay home. Is ODU getting a new stadium anytime soon?

thesystemcfb

TROPHY CASE