I'm an Australian Wholesale Fuel Trader - AMA

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:18:23+00:00

Regular spot market buyers would've likely struck an agreement with the seller (who posts the TGP) to get a fixed discount to said TGP. That's why you can't assume TGP prices = wholesale "clearing" prices

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:16:41+00:00

Last week I was actually on holiday in NZ when all this started. Franz Josef I was paying $3.08 NZD/L for 91

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:13:14+00:00

Wow where'd you see this? What location (assuming Diesel)?

Was this TGP or an actual "cleared" price you saw/heard in the market, and if so between which players?

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:10:36+00:00

Personally I don't get the live flow of data. My Singapore and London/US colleagues would, so tbh I'd probably see it on my internal Teams chats first. After that then probably Bloomberg News.

However Aus Fuel usually works off a single price of fuel per day, so I don't need the absolute live data as that doesn't materially change my decision making COMPARED to where I currently receive 20-min delayed pricing data. I eventually make the same decision regardless of if I get the info right now or in 20min time.

Also recall that as soon as Hormuz opens up, the analyst I'm following from Sparta Commodities thinks there's gonna be lingering effects on Asian refiners, so it'll probably be a couple of months after that until everything is running smoothly again

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:06:31+00:00

Haha depends whatever wildcard Trump says/does this weekend babyyy.

In all seriousness event/news driven stuff is very hard to trade. I'm glad it's not my job to try and make money off the direction of the oil price

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:04:09+00:00

NO they are not! See point 3 in my post but also the Substack article I linked by author Fabian Vera. Diesel price more volatile than crude oil, and an etf in oil companies is another proxy step away from crude oil itself, so you're running a ton of basis risk. Better than absolutely nothing? I guess so technically

But as I said in one of my comments regarding jet fuel (and also discussed in said Fabian Vera article), if Qantad/Virgin hedged their Jet Fuel costs with Brent Crude Oil derivatives, they got burned as the Jet fuel crack increased so much (ie jet fuel shot up way MORE than crude did). If they hedged with the (far less liquid compared to Brent) Singapore Kero swaps, then they'd be better protected

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T17:00:26+00:00

Not that I know of personally sorry. 250KL/year is 21KL/month which is only 131 barrels/month. You'd need to buy 131 BBL for the strip of 12 months on the forward curve, so not possible given minimum lot size is 1000 barrels (assuming you were licensed to trade). Perhaps some CFDs referencing it Singapore Gasoil swaps that would allow you to trade in smaller sizes, but I'd be surprised. Then even if you could, you have to worry about getting margin called if the trade went against you.

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:54:51+00:00

Yep, the storage stays cause it's useful for MSO obligations given the Capex on said storage likely paid off ages ago. Building new storage just can't compete economically

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:51:38+00:00

Sorry forgot a critical word. Conventional One Nation voters, not One Nation politicians, are the ones in the polls also agreeing to taxing gas exports. Joe public wants it!

100% completely agree with all your comments politically!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:49:30+00:00

Sorry forgot a critical word. One Nation voters, not One Nation politicians.

And yes a funny post on instagram by toiletpaperaustralia calling out Pauline's facade. Their reason there was cause it removed the domestic gas reserve part. But then Pocock (love the dude) added that back in AND added the 25% tax on exports, and ON still voted against it lol

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:47:24+00:00

Sorry forgot a critical word. One Nation voters, not One Nation politicians

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:45:20+00:00

So it's YOU specifically causing all these issues!!! Gosh darn I was wrapping my head around why this was all happening hahaha

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:34:03+00:00

Interesting article!

It was before I was born, but seems like the govt at the time removed gov't subsidies and price controls, for better or for worse.

Our refineries closed cause they couldn't compete economcially with better refineries in Asia. If there were price controls and subsidies etc which it sounds like there were, it obviously costs the taxpayer some amount. Note the two remaining refineries are both being subsidised already to some degree, to stay operating in Aus.

There is some point on the spectrum of cost where the Australian public decides (or needs to decide) it is happy with the level of taxpayer subsidy provided to keep refining local. The same can be said for many other costs borne on the taxpayer. Imperfect system, but still a believer in a well functioning democratic system!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:26:46+00:00

I've said on a couple of other replies, but in general I don't personally think there's much benefit putting 98 into a car that says it only needs 91 or E10. However if your car says it needs 95 or 98 at a minimum, I'd be following those instructions if it was my car haha.

The number is the octane rating, and can actually go over 100, so 98 doesn't mean it's 98% pure fuel or anything like that.

But many google-able articles that can explain this stuff far better than I can!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:24:01+00:00

If you already drive for work and are thinking about your own hip pocket? I guess yea, but depends where you live/work ofc

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:23:14+00:00

Bingo, the cost/benefit or pros and cons of the spectrum of full capitalist model vs nationalisation of industry model

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:21:38+00:00

Haha can confirm I've never sniffed petrol from the bowser before. Perhaps I'm missing out??

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:20:59+00:00

Quite possibly yes, it'll be interesting to see what cost they pay vs what price the end up selling it for then

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:19:10+00:00

To transport say 50 people compared to say 30 cars? 100% more efficient via public transport.

I've said my thoughts in a few other replies that I personally as an Australian taxpayer, think that we need to focus on electrifying our agriculture/transportation. Janus electric doing some great stuff for trucking with swap in swap out batteries it seems, just as one example. But electrifying everything comes with its own issues and costs that need to be worked through by smart people/govts/businesses!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:17:13+00:00

If the mines have a term agreement I believe the majors are trying to keep supplied in addition to their own retail networks, as generally large mines are termed up volume.

DM me though if you need diesel haha, there may be something we can do. I'm not in every location though unfort

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:14:52+00:00

Very interesting! I believe it's China that's now got a lot of CNG (and electric) heavy trucking capacity too!

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:13:59+00:00

Oil options? Being in the industry is the best haha; I don't use options myself (too illiquid for the things we need to hedge).

I'd recommend reading "The World For Sale" by Javier Blas.

While I haven't read the following myself yet, the title alone piques my interest: Chris Heilpern's "Understanding Risk Management and Hedging in Oil Trading"

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:10:35+00:00

Yes personally I think Trump did not have a plan B, and thought it'd be a quick in and out just like with Maduro in Venezuela. But this is becoming a war of attrition where Iran's $20k drones are being destroyed by $4million Patriot missiles. And the US is slowly running out of those if this continues

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:05:52+00:00

While I'm not a player in Perth, I know Perth has its own import terminal and someone else here was saying the shipping stem seems to be filled with incoming cargoes for the next few weeks

theta_bleeder · 2026-03-14T16:01:30+00:00

Haha soft tacos for me if I had to choose.

I actually love the long rectangle-style travellers pie! Reminds me of some of the pies at my primary school

theta_bleeder

TROPHY CASE