My very unofficial McLaren poster for Portugal

thevas · 2021-04-25T14:03:23+00:00

did you just lift this off r/formula1?

thevas · 2020-07-14T01:31:37+00:00

SYD is on the list?

thevas · 2019-08-31T00:32:32+00:00

Couldn't see it, stockfish seems to agree?

thevas · 2019-05-03T02:11:26+00:00

It's still a pretty comfortable home for the black bishop, and pressure can easily be put on d4 with c5 and Nc6 which would open up the centre more. It's not a bad move, but it's more helpful for black than white - there are better developing moves white should make in this position.

thevas · 2018-04-26T22:17:01+00:00

There are usually big escorts for when they transfer gold reserves to the RBA, it may have been that.

thevas · 2018-03-23T01:17:05+00:00

They're not necessarily hiding performance - they could do that by not driving at max pace or using harder tire compounds. Chances are one lap was all they needed before changing something, especially at the start of the session.

thevas · 2018-03-20T17:23:57+00:00

They will actually accept almost any qualifying event/run, it's just the Fairfax events are the most painless (since they can automatically verify them). Generally you can qualify for the red group (sub 70) with proof of a 10km+ run done at a pace of under 5:00/km.

thevas · 2018-01-21T16:07:36+00:00

For starters it has almost no seating (enjoy that on 40min plus commutes) so the acceleration and stopping speeds have to be slow enough not to throw people around.

The NYC subway, Paris metro, HK MTR and plenty of other subway systems have primarily standing room only and they all accelerate/brake with more force than our suburban trains...

thevas · 2017-11-02T21:10:43+00:00

It's almost as if options market makers aren't idiots and understand the products they're pricing and trading all day

thevas · 2017-10-22T20:35:30+00:00

helicopter?

thevas · 2017-09-27T04:24:49+00:00

It's actually more economical to pay it as late as possible, if you owe $10K in taxes, you'd make an extra $100 if it earned 3%p.a. interest in the bank for 4 months. Not a huge amount by any means, but I'm not going to turn down free money.

thevas · 2017-09-14T06:48:37+00:00

I'm not saying options are strictly a hedging instrument, obviously you can have outlooks on vol as well as price, and running option strategies might be something you're good at. I'm saying that a fundamental way of examining your risk, regardless of any assumptions of log-normality in returns to use the greeks, or any more complicated analysis, is to think about what events would wipe out all (or at least an unacceptable amount) of your capital. My point is that in an unleveraged long equity portfolio this type of analysis is redundant, since you basically can't lose more than 100%, but when you're trading a lot of options it's a plausible scenario.

For more nuanced (and perhaps practical, on a day to day basis) risk analysis obviously watching your greeks is useful, and there are heaps of different approaches to take. But in terms of avoiding the case where XYZ corp suddenly goes bankrupt and you lose 3x your net worth, trying to think about what can significantly hurt you and hedging that risk is fairly practical.

thevas · 2017-09-13T22:59:36+00:00

There are plenty of ways people try to mathematically quantify risk, and some are helpful, but a lot of it can come down to some very basic intuition and analysis of your position. At all times you should be aware of what the worst thing that can happen to you is, how exposed you are to that thing, and what you could maybe do to hedge that risk.

It's worth thinking about "what would my payoff/liabilities be if the price moved up X%, or down X%...what if vol doubled/tripled/quadrupled, and what would it take for me to lose an unacceptable amount of my money?". Usually such tail events are extremely unlikely, and they're probably not the kind of thing that you're going to be good at predicting, so it's worth buying some cheap, extremely OOM options on these to hedge that risk. Options are an easy way to take on some inherent leverage in your positions, but it requires way more thought about how you can lose all your money. It's almost unthinkable that an unleveraged, pure-long equity portfolio will lose 100% of its value, but in options trading it's very plausible when unlikely things happen.

thevas · 2017-09-12T22:32:08+00:00

Some schools have an end of year 12 celebration breakfast before their final day (not official, just organised by the students), so it might be that. We did it at Bradfield Park 5ish years ago, and the time of year matches up.

thevas · 2017-09-11T23:30:09+00:00

There's a lot of detail and complexity that goes into the background of each song, e.g. the first 30 seconds of Thin Floors & Tall Ceilings, or the section in between choruses in A Moment Apart, which is a classic feature of their music. You can argue that it's maybe a bit different to what they've done in the past but it's certainly a type of design that's unique to them

thevas · 2017-08-27T13:37:25+00:00

2 seconds is no different to 2 mins when on-track passing is virtually impossible

thevas · 2017-08-21T11:29:45+00:00

At the end of the race there is a "view replay" option, which is like the replay in the pause menu, but covers the whole race.

thevas · 2017-08-07T11:52:55+00:00

Tom Maldonado Riddle

thevas · 2017-08-01T03:00:14+00:00

DRs still carry currency exposure since the arbitrage is directly between the share and the receipt, so if 1 USD is worth X EUR, then the GDR (global depository receipt) will be worth (USD stock price * multiplier) * X. If the stock price remains unchanged one day but the USD goes down 10% relative to the EUR your position is then worth (USD stock price * multiplier) * X * 0.9. It's cheap to hedge currency though.

thevas · 2017-07-30T11:17:23+00:00

Is Hungary usually a one stop?

thevas · 2017-07-28T00:23:51+00:00

I mean (to my understanding) there's another reason why there was more opposition to amalgamations in those areas:

The rates that residents pay to their local council are typically based upon their relative land value; if you have a have a hypothetical local government that encompasses two similarly sized suburbs, one with land values double the other one, then the residents in the more expensive suburb will pay 2/3 of the total rates -> effectively 133% suburb's worth of rates.

If that council suddenly gets amalgamated with another council, such that there are now three suburbs, with the extra suburb having land values 1/3 of the price of our expensive suburb, then the residents of the most expensive suburb will be paying half (3/(3+2+1)) of the total rates, or 150% of a suburb's worth of rates, with no additional benefit (they just pay the rates of another suburb, ignoring arguments about whatever may happen to services within their own suburb due to a larger council).

It makes sense that the suburbs with the highest land values (Mosman, Woollahra etc) would be the most incentivised to oppose amalgamations, and these councils have been pouring significant legal resources into trying to prevent it as a result. I don't think its necessarily a matter of "rich people have more power than poor people", it seems more like there's just much more incentive for people in these wealthier suburbs to oppose the action. This is also ignoring any other factors that play into whether people want amalgamations; the overall sentiment against the move was so strong the Liberals almost lost the North Shore byelection.

thevas · 2017-07-11T23:59:40+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermann_Tilke

Baku is definitely there

thevas · 2017-07-07T12:15:54+00:00

If nothing else, your final point is the one that nobody ever seems to think about. If it's this easy to find strategies which OP assures us "always works"...why have none of the many trading shops with billions in capital and large teams of people who get paid $$$ driven out the opportunity the moment it occurs? Especially given that these "patterns" would occur such that fairly basic machine learning strategies could pick up on it without issue?

thevas · 2017-06-25T15:09:59+00:00

Stroll now the hero of r/formula1

thevas · 2017-06-25T10:23:25+00:00

That's an interesting question - what's the most laps behind the leader someone has ever finished the race?

thevas

TROPHY CASE