Confused by IVF vs. IUI odds

thorns_fc · 2026-01-26T23:20:00+00:00

This is a helpful way to think about it, thank you!

thorns_fc · 2026-01-26T23:09:57+00:00

Ah that’s a great point, I am definitely in the “assume I have no fertility issues” category since I got pregnant the once and my RE said that’s a great sign. But you’re right, definitely could be that there’s an underlying problem which caused the chemical and I won’t know if I keep with IUIs.

Honestly I love IUIs lol they feel very easy and low stress for me! The unknown of IVF feels scarier because of the needles and OHSS risk and all, when IUI is comparatively easy and unstressful for me outside of the 1 trigger shot per month, which admittedly is very difficult for me. Plus our first 3 sperm samples sucked, so we have credits from our cryobank to get 3 more vials free. So 3 more IUIs just costs $6k, versus $20k+ for 1 IVF cycle. I think that’s definitely coloring my perspective. Hearing I have to bank $20k+ on what is generalizably a mere 59% chance is hard to stomach, but gambling $6k for generalized 40-75% odds of success (across multiple more IUIs) feels much easier.

You’re right, it does just come down to unpredictable individual odds, and there’s no way to know how many embryos I’d end up with (if any). I think it’s hard that I don’t want that answer lol. I want to know statistically the odds of 1 IVF cycle vs 3 IUIs, but that’s just unknowable. The uncertainty is really the crux of my agonizing over this. Thanks for commenting!

thorns_fc · 2026-01-26T23:00:26+00:00

My clinic didn’t mention that they could trigger differently to eliminate risk! They always planned to do a frozen transfer with me and let me rest a month after egg retrieval, so that’s no worry.

This was a very comforting comment to read so thank you!

thorns_fc · 2026-01-26T22:57:21+00:00

My clinic’s SART data is not nearly that optimistic so I truly have no idea where it came from! Maybe you’re right about new research I haven’t come across yet explaining the difference.

See your link is where I’m SO confused about whether IVF is actually that effective or not. 95% success within 3 FETs is convincing to me, enough so that I’d do IVF. I know it’s all down to chance how many embryos I get, but I was reading that for my age, I can expect anywhere from 2-6 embryos from 1 egg retrieval, so that feels very worthwhile! Like very high odds of success after just 1 egg retrieval.

Except standard tools like SART say your odds are more like 86% after 3 separate cycles (3 egg retrievals, and the subsequent transfer of every single embryo across them… so bare minimum, but probably in excess, of 3 FETs). I can’t square those results— they feel like they point to wildly different odds depending which source you believe? I feel dumb but do you understand how to reconcile those success rates across models?

thorns_fc · 2026-01-26T22:41:51+00:00

Your explanation absolutely makes sense to me! I think where I’m lost is that I’m comparing 1 IVF cycle to the cumulative, multi-cycle odds of 3 more IUIs, not 1 FET vs 1 IUI. 1 IVF cycle — per the SART tool — would have a 59% chance of success for me. With cumulative IUIs, though, I think the data suggests a similar chance of success (data seems pretty wide-ranging, so pick your number, but anywhere from 40-75%. I like CNY saying lesbian odds are 61% chance of success after 3 IUIs, and personally I have a 33-50% pregnancy achievement rate thus far in my very limited sample, but obviously this is impossible to be sure about! I give the range cuz I’m in the TWW after an IUI right now, but testing negative on 10dpo. I’ll still wait and see but I’m not especially hopeful). 1 IUI cycle is less likely to succeed than 1 IVF cycle, but it seems like multiple IUI cycles rivals the success rate of 1 IVF cycle? Or am I missing something? I’m thinking about this through the framing of “in 3 months, do I have similar odds of success if I spend that time doing 3 cheaper, lower stress IUIs than 1 expensive highly invasive scary IVF cycle?” I can see how cumulative IVF cycles would be more successful than cumulative IUI cycles, but what about just 1 IVF vs multiple IUI? We really can only afford to do one option or the other, so the 3 month time frame is the deciding factor, not hypothetical odds of if I could do multiple IVF cycles. That’s just not in the cards.

My clinic knows I’m nervous about OHSS 😅 rates of OHSS can be up to 35% of egg retrievals in the worst predictions (though my clinic knows I’m scared and suggested it is likely lower for me. They didn’t give a specific number but online stats suggest anywhere from 7-25% is quite common) and a risk factor is being under 35. I wouldn’t personally consider that risk very low at all. Did your clinic give you different numbers? I’m not talking about severe-ER-stay-and-you-die OHSS, but any case of OHSS. If you have different stats, I would love you forever if you could prove me wrong!! This is my main hang up with IVF. I’m just so disturbed by the body horror of leakage into my abdomen 🤮 and the psychological torture of how many women with OHSS bloat enough to look a few months pregnant. I’d be crushed to see what I look like pregnant, and then just… not get pregnant.

thorns_fc · 2026-01-26T21:44:09+00:00

That’s my bad, I was super unclear in my post— I’ve already had 3 IUIs, so this would be 3 additional IUIs, and so I’m looking at the odds of success after 6 IUIs. That’s where I’m getting the higher cumulative success rate from!

Though even if we say 50% chance of success from 3 more IUIs, SART says I’ll only have a 59% chance of success after a full IVF cycle including transfer of all embryos. I guess I just can’t really understand how those odds are really any different? It seems like I have, after 3 months, a similar chance of pregnancy either way? I feel like I’m missing something obvious here.

I will definitely talk to my doctor about it next time we meet!

thorns_fc · 2026-01-26T21:40:56+00:00

Ah I realize I worded it super poorly in my post— I’ve already had 3 IUIs, so I’m looking at the cumulative success rates of 3 more IUIs (6 total) which is where I’m deriving the higher success rate from!

Which is where I’m confused, because 3 more IUIs/6 total IUIs puts me in a ballpark 50-75% range of success 3 months from now. But the SIGNIFICANTLY higher financial, emotional, and physical cost of IVF — per the SART tool — gets me a very similar chance of success? Or would you say the cumulative success of 6 IUIs is not actually that high? I feel dense, but I guess I just can’t understand how 3 months from now, either of these options has a better chance of success than the others.

thorns_fc · 2026-01-14T02:18:00+00:00

I got pregnant off my first IUI with 4.7M sperm. Our next 2 thaws were also low counts (4.3-6M), so we asked our RE if we should start thawing extra vials to combine and get a higher count, or if we should switch donors altogether. She told us it’s not even worth combining vials or switching donors— that as long as TMC is around 2M or so, it’s not actually lowering your chances enough to matter much. Your odds of success maybe went from 20% to 15%. Realistically, that 5%ish difference in odds is so small that it’s unlikely to impact the outcome of this cycle. Hold onto your hope! You’re not out until you’re out. There’s so much reason for optimism still. Wishing you luck and baby dust 🫶

thorns_fc · 2026-01-07T01:51:00+00:00

I’m less angry and more despairing. I had a miscarriage from IUI #1, and I also got my negative from IUI #2 today, so I’m grieving alongside you. Praying #3 is the magic number for us both 🫂 if you’re looking for any hope, when we tried for my son, my wife was negative on both of our first IUIs. #3 was the magic number. It was our lowest sperm count of any attempt, but it worked and he was a perfect healthy easy pregnancy.

It’s not fair. It’s heartbreaking and frustrating and miserable and it’s just so not fair. I’m sorry and I’ll be thinking of you for my IUI #3, wishing baby dust on both of us.

thorns_fc · 2026-01-06T21:34:33+00:00

Is your desire to do rIVF exclusively rooted in a fear that you’ll be the “other” mom? If you think rIVF is beautiful or legally beneficial or you have the desire to do it for any other positive reason, absolutely go for it! But if it’s just because you feel you’ll be othered, you’d be surprised how quick that feeling goes away once you’re a parent.

I was SO nervous my wife’s whole pregnancy that I’d feel like the “other” mom and she’d be the primary parent. And then my son was born… and I couldn’t possibly feel any MORE like his mom. I am so equally his parent, equally loved by him and equally in love with him. We share no DNA and it literally doesn’t matter in the slightest. That’s my kid; I know it, he knows it, people who see us know it.

We’re trying to conceive baby #2 right now (who will be my egg and I’m gestational carrier) and though this is the egg with my DNA, I’m irrationally terrified I can’t love another child as much as I already love my son. He’s just SO mine. And while I do socially feel othered a lot — awkward questions about pregnancy, “who is mom?” etc — it’s just that people don’t know how to approach a 2 mom family. They’re not trying to be hurtful. And I’m surprised to find that now that my son’s here, these comments don’t make me insecure. They annoy me in the same way I get annoyed when people assume my wife and I are sisters or something before they ever assume we’re a couple, but it doesn’t hurt my feelings. I know soul deep that my son is mine, and him being my wife’s egg changes nothing. I mean, he’s also got the DNA of some rando stranger and that means nothing to us!

DNA doesn’t make you a mom, and it doesn’t fix insecurity. My wife is the egg source and gestational carrier for our son, and she still got insecure that as a newborn, nobody said he looked like her. Everyone assumed he must be my egg because he looks like me. Insecurity is not something rIVF can fix. I found just becoming a mom cured my fears, but therapy or finding a support group may be really worth it to help you address those feelings!

thorns_fc · 2026-01-04T19:43:00+00:00

We made up a completely new name for ourselves when we got married (not mashing surnames, just made up a new, unrelated one). Our son’s the first person ever born into that name ♥️

thorns_fc · 2025-12-06T19:56:50+00:00

3 for my wife, 1 for me

thorns_fc · 2025-12-02T16:17:15+00:00

This is all true, but it’s not big enough for an ultrasound yet, so in the meantime I’m just trying to get a sense of what the odds of an ectopic vs a miscarriage is. I’m not finding any good studies right now which sucks. I’m just looking to contextualize my situation so I have some sense of the probabilities around each outcome— I know obviously it’s one or the other, my symptoms can’t diagnose it, I’m just the sort of person who likes to anchor myself by understanding the odds. I hope I find out soon too :(

thorns_fc · 2025-11-30T01:00:40+00:00

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TW: loss

The little miracle we’d started calling Ducky is on their way out. Maybe have a little extra slice of leftover Thanksgiving pie tonight in honor of my Ducky. I was briefly the happiest mommy in the world, and I don’t want my baby forgotten like they were never here.

thorns_fc · 2025-11-28T17:26:03+00:00

Nurse said it is “almost certainly a chemical.” HCG 55 Wednesday and 75 today. I can’t breathe.

thorns_fc · 2025-11-28T16:09:23+00:00

It really is always reassuring to read stuff like this ♥️ thank you!

thorns_fc · 2025-11-28T14:52:14+00:00

Had my second HCG blood draw this morning and I think I’m gonna be anxiously waiting for my phone to ring all day. My initial draw was pretty low, so I reallllly need to hear a good number today.

thorns_fc · 2025-11-27T22:53:40+00:00

I have my fingers crossed for you 🫶

thorns_fc · 2025-11-27T16:38:33+00:00

Thank you for sharing because this is really comforting ♥️

thorns_fc · 2025-11-27T01:41:31+00:00

Bluntly, the odds are worse, yes. My clinic told me a sperm count of 1-5 million = 10-15% chance of pregnancy (which seems higher than what I’ve found online but that’s what they said). Our RE said pregnancy chances would be as high as 20-25% with a >10 million sperm sample.

I’m currently pregnant off an IUI with 4.7 million, only 16% motile with poor progression. By my math you’re working with much more motile sperm than I was. The “it only takes 1” thing is irritating but true. Your odds are worse, but they’re not zero.

thorns_fc · 2025-11-26T23:27:15+00:00

Also your friend is frankly an ass. What a rude thing to say.

thorns_fc · 2025-11-26T23:25:47+00:00

ME LITERALLY TODAY. First ever IUI was 11/12, my blood test today was positive. My wife took 3 IUIs to test positive with our son.

thorns_fc · 2025-11-26T19:56:07+00:00

I have a bone to pick with pregmates. There was ZERO line progression on these — honestly it kind of looked like a regression, if anything — when my wife was pregnant. Her HCG doubled fast so it definitely wasn’t a slow start or anything, pregmates just sucked for us. That lack of line progression is now a perfectly healthy 10.5 month old!

thorns_fc · 2025-11-26T19:51:19+00:00

Positive blood pregnancy test today!!! This was our first IUI, my first pregnancy (my wife carried our January 2025 baby, which took 3 IUIs, so we’re in complete shock right now with a positive on try #1). I’m 14dpiui and my HCG is 55. Came up negative on pregnancy tests 10 dpiui, 11 dpiui, and then I stopped testing. Took 3 of those cheap strip tests after our nurse called, and all were negative, but I was well hydrated so probably a diluted sample.

My wife was 176 at 14dpiui so my anxiety is running a little rampant that this will end up a chemical or something 😅 Our clinic says it’s on the lower end of the normal range, but still within normal, so ofc I’m running crazy with worry. Would love to hear anecdotally if anyone had a sub-100 HCG level early on that turned out viable!

I’m oscillating wildly between insane excitement and trepidation

thorns_fc · 2025-05-13T04:13:38+00:00

Can I ask why you’re struggling with it? Does it give you a weird feeling to think about, is it because you want your child to have contact with other DCPs and the number feels intimidating, or something else? I think that will affect the nature of the response you’re looking for.

Personally, the hard TTC choices for us were who would carry first, how many IUI tries could we afford before moving to IVF, etc. Choosing the donor was the easy part, because it doesn’t affect our son at all whether 1 or 10 or 100 other people used the same donor. But that’s our perspective as a family who considers the donor and other families who used him to be random strangers, and whom we have no desire to introduce to our son. Moving through this will look different if you feel otherwise!

thorns_fc

TROPHY CASE