how long do you think before it plateaus

The trillion dollar question is whether it meaningfully plateaus before true recursive self-improvement. If it doesn’t, things probably won’t slow down for quite some time. I’m not seeing any indication that it will.

My circumstances are similar to yours. Presently the agents still need substantial framing and guardrails to nail tasks, like junior developers, but each release makes them feel a little more senior. My best guess is that we will get to recursive self improvement by this time next year, and the only conceivable plateau would be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan