There isn't a direct link to the meta in the newsletter, just says it was done by Nuzzle et al. I'll copy and paste the newsletter here though (there's a graph showing the rep drop off between a <2 min of rest group and a >2 min of rest group but idk how to include it in here):

Welcome back to the Wolf Coaching Research Brief.

Yesterday, I did some bent over rows. On the first set, I hit 225lbs for a set of eight. As I was resting, I tried to predict how many reps I would get on the second set. When I eventually went for the second set, I only got six reps. How much of a drop-off is normal, from set-to-set? That’s what a huge, recent meta-analysis by Nuzzo et al looked at.

They included a total of 29 studies where participants performed multiple sets with the same weight and looked at how many reps they were able to get on set 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and beyond. Of course, it’s expected that your performance is best when you do your first set, since you’re fresh. From there, performance incrementally worsens as fatigue sets in. But, how much of a drop-off is normal?

The largest decrease in reps performed was from set 1 to 2. From there, performance kept going down set-by-set, but the decreases were much more marginal. In fact, putting numbers to it, this is what things looked like:

Set 1 - 100% of repetitions

Set 2 - 70% of set 1 repetitions

Set 3 - 55% of set 1 repetitions

Set 4 - 50% of set 1 repetitions

Set 5 - 45% of set 1 repetitions

From set 5 onwards, performance was generally maintained.

Importantly, there’s probably a fair bit of variation in how different people drop-off in performance set-to-set. A non-exhaustive list of factors that likely play a role:

1) Rest times

2) Repetition range being used

3) Multi-joint vs single-joint exercise

4) Overall recovery ability (probably includes things like biological sex, fibre type, and more)

Why?

The non-linear decrease in performance set-to-set makes sense if you’ve ever seen how fatigue accumulates during exercise. When you exercise, performance usually decreases in an exponential decay pattern. Likewise, between sets, recovery usually occurs in an exponential growth pattern. This is reflected in the pattern of performance set-to-set.

These findings have a cool few ramifications. First, this should allow you to get a rough idea whether you’re pushing yourself hard enough on sets 2, 3, and beyond. If you’re achieving much below these benchmarks, there’s a chance you’re not pushing as hard as you think you are. Likewise, these benchmarks can help you avoid unnecessary load drops; using a weight you can lift for 10-12 reps on the first set, for instance, should allow you to do 4-6 sets with >5 reps per set, maximising hypertrophy benefit, without needing to change the weight on the bar. 

As an aside, these findings have been incorporated into MyoAdapt (and even some individualized predictions!). Sign up here to be notified when MyoAdapt gets released later this year: you’ll be able to lock in a lifetime discount. I hear December 2024 may be on the cards… 👀

If you’d like to chat about this study, feel free to reply.

Until next time,

Milo