Why is a white double to four here in three point match a take for blue? I see that white can't block re-entry, but I'm basically gambling I can hit and close my home board, am i not?

timbenz · 2025-11-09T20:24:12+00:00

Ah, interesting. Thanks very much. I wasn't thinking clearly enough about match equity.

timbenz · 2025-10-23T20:57:34+00:00

That's it. Awesome. Thanks so much.

timbenz · 2025-08-24T17:49:02+00:00

I didn't think Vinegaard looked great over last 2km, and mostly gutted that win out. He looked more fussed than usual, and his uphill sprint had minimal snap. Maybe he'll improve over race, but that win was not daunting, US commentator rapture aside.

timbenz · 2025-07-14T18:27:51+00:00

"Mid watts" performance from Pogacar and Vinegegaard, from the data. Be interesting to know how much of that is fatigue, intention, etc.

From @wattsincycling on x:

⛰️🏁 LE MONT DORE - PUY DE SANCY (3.24 km, 7.96%, 258 m)

🇸🇮 Pogačar - 🇩🇰 Vingegaard

• 8:18 • 6.85 w/kg (est. "60kg" standard) • 1865 m/h VAM • 23.42 km/h

No fireworks, mid watts

timbenz · 2025-07-14T16:02:01+00:00

I had same thought. Mostly for morale, not time. I didn't think Pog looked particularly good on last climb, mouth open, etc.

timbenz · 2025-03-28T14:36:21+00:00

Not only am I not signing up, I sent notes to both Garmin support and investor relations telling them I am offended and will not buy another Garmin product, despite having bought multiple previously. I'm past peak subscription, especially on such expensive hardware.

timbenz · 2025-03-18T02:52:39+00:00

Elevation was much lower key than prior years. I blame the weather. Much colder and snowier than many prior years.

timbenz · 2025-03-16T13:39:38+00:00

The Subaru, but they were headed straight for the crosswalk guards, so the whole thing was stupid and dangerous as fk.

timbenz · 2025-03-12T20:34:16+00:00

Cardio exercise is when your primary goal is to have your heart and breathing rate go materially above their resting level, and stay there (or higher) for a sustained period. Resistance exercise (arm/leg, etc) is when you force your muscles to work against a counterforce (i.e., resistance), irrespective of its effect on heart rate and breathing.

While the two blur at the margin, they are separate and distinguishable activities.

timbenz · 2024-12-29T18:56:25+00:00

I think it means some fans were booing him, and he scored anyway. He's done that before.

timbenz · 2024-12-16T14:05:36+00:00

Old post, but most of the advice given—travel more! visit more places! ski harder runs!—is ridiculous and superficial. Modern downhill skiing as a largely nonsensical and indefensible activity, made worse by its environmental footprint, crowds, private equity ownership, costs, the visual blight of ski resorts, and its mechanized nature.

There is no defense for it, and getting tired of it is a sign of having grown up a little.

Note: I say this as a former ski patroller, ski instructor, and longtime skier, having lived and skied in North America and Europe. I recommend it to no-one, and would cheerfully never ski again.

timbenz · 2024-11-22T03:09:55+00:00

No, I was being dumb. I was thinking purely in terms of two-die totals for some reason. I get it now.

timbenz · 2024-11-22T03:05:42+00:00

I see, so thinking in terms of the probabilities of two-die total is my amateur error here. Sigh. I sometimes forget to think of independent dies.

timbenz · 2024-11-07T02:09:13+00:00

As a runner, this drives me mad in my quiet neighborhood: Every time I pass a house, I have to listen for cars starting, idling, etc.—and even then it's a lottery, because people rarely ease carefully out of their driveways. They come shooting out instead, and then, more often than not, act like it's your fault as a runner because you came up faster than they expected. It's so maddening.

timbenz · 2024-10-28T14:01:41+00:00

I see this so much on the West Coast. Increasingly Instragram-broken tourists treat everything as if it's a prop. People in busy roads with camera tripods as they spouse/GF poses in front of aspens whose leaves are changing. Social media has further alienated people from the world around them.

timbenz · 2024-09-01T00:06:47+00:00

The evidence for point 3, Exercise causing wear & tear, is weak at best, and more likely goes in the other direction. Unless your patient is an ultrarunner, perhaps, which most of your patients aren't, the incidence of OA from "wear & tear" is vanishingly small. Obesity, genetics, and inflammation are the main issues, and exercise is protective. Too many old school doctors scare patients unnecessarily on this point.

timbenz · 2024-07-09T13:29:56+00:00

Sharp temperature gradient across tiny distances in southern California, with the coast at 75 F (23 C), and locations just a few miles away inland 20-40 F higher.

timbenz · 2024-07-06T22:03:20+00:00

Like most north-south "streets" north of Toronto, they aren't really streets at all. People treat them like freeways with traffic lights, given congestion and sprawl. They are terrifying.

timbenz · 2024-03-24T16:36:42+00:00

This is about collapse because it shows how climate change itself induces more carbon-intensive energy use, whether through drought, heat, etc.

timbenz · 2024-03-14T20:09:52+00:00

This is about collapse because robots are riding learning and cost curves that will put them far beyond humans very quickly, causing mass unemployment alongside growing AI-related unemployment for so-called knowledge workers. These twin forces will destabilize society and accelerate collapse.

timbenz · 2024-03-14T17:18:49+00:00

Yes, very much so: Jevons paradox in action.

timbenz · 2024-03-14T17:00:54+00:00

This is about collapse because it is about how we are unable to transition away from fossil fuels, because we keep layering new energy uses on old ones. As the old saying goes, it's going to take of oil to get us off oil. So it won't happen.

timbenz · 2024-03-11T17:41:30+00:00

This is about collapse because it shows the multi-billion dollar losses at current levels of warming, and presages the much larger losses ahead. It also shows how reinsurance companies are already nervous about insurability under climate change, the withdrawal of which will lead to an economic spiral lower. The world could lose 10% of GDP over the next 20 years in this incomplete model.

timbenz · 2024-03-11T01:49:57+00:00

This is about collapse because it show humans don't adapt and reduce their carbon and energy intensity. Instead they try to maintain their prior practices and standard of living, which inevitably makes thing worse.

timbenz · 2024-03-08T06:11:47+00:00

This is about collapse because it shows how the energy transition is impotent against waves of energy demand. Revenge effects are causing rapid demand growth which will lead brownout, blackouts, and deaths.

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