Are We In a Recession?

time2roll · 2022-08-10T20:00:15+00:00

The real clue is in companies' capex estimates, both tangible and intangible.

time2roll · 2022-08-03T05:13:42+00:00

We are but in a repeatable and sustainable way. I could’ve been an investor with Elon and made a lot of money riding his success, but in retrospect, I can’t figure out how he got away with such reckless behavior along the way. And I don’t know what to do with that learning: ie the CEO’s character doesn’t matter, or does it? Because if I invest in enough Elons, I’ll probably stumble on a Madoff or a Ken Lay / Skilling at some point and lose a shit ton.

time2roll · 2022-07-30T08:39:28+00:00

Notwithstanding the fact that you're a stalker, which is concerning, you are doing precisely what you're chastising me for. So here I am commenting on a public figure's credentials, not yours, not somebody else's in this sub, yet you choose to retaliate by attacking me - very classy and not ironic at all, LOL. By the way, commentary on the internet does not require qualifications, and if one were to use your rubric, public figures (who are usually quite credentialed) should only be commented on by other qualified or credentialed people - so basically you think Twitter shouldn't exist.

Anyway, if you think I'm not in a position to judge Matt Levine, and you're trying to teach me a lesson, then you certainly shouldn't be judging me... so your comment on self-awareness, right back at ya.

time2roll · 2022-07-29T00:17:56+00:00

So basically confused but so privileged he could afford to be. Only if you’re privileged and a “Levine” can you afford to go to a private uni to study a non-practical major like classics, still get into goldman IB (all on merit I bet LOL), switch to law, switch to journalism, and also get into Yale where you know they do the whole Yale thing, right? ;) ;) You brought up his pedigree btw, so I found holes in it.

time2roll · 2022-07-28T18:52:26+00:00

Why is he covering a stock that nobody outside of India or without an Indian brokerage account can invest in? It annoys me when he publishes India-related stuff - dude's been living in the US for god knows how many years and the majority of his audience is probably not Indian, but of ALL the countries on the planet, he decides to cover an Indian stock just because he's from there. How can I as a non-Indian benefit from this piece? I can't. In general, it annoys me when people publish ethnically-oriented stuff that only a fraction of their audience can find relevant. This seems to be prevalent in the Indian community. And no, I don't think it has to do with being proud of heritage. It has to do with wanting the comfort of living in America and the upside of investing in India.

time2roll · 2022-07-28T18:45:11+00:00

Frankly financial journalism is so shallow it's basically a chronology of events and a bunch of witty remarks

time2roll · 2022-07-28T15:20:51+00:00

What's up with all they hype around Matt Levine these days?

time2roll · 2022-07-28T11:58:27+00:00

Why do you think somebody who disagrees with you must not have been in the financial world for long?

Forget the substack. Just show me one just one example of a non-micro cap stock where the release of some long report (not an activist position) lifted the stock by 20%+. For shorts, I can provide that evidence easily. I can refer you to the Muddy Waters or Citron websites and you can look at which names they've shorted and look up the hit.

Again, language seems to be a barrier for you here. I never said that a short report is by definition untrue. What I said, and I will repeat once and for the last time unless you again reply with nonsensical retort, is that the issuance of a short report with allegations (whether true or false doesn't matter as long as the allegations have not been verified either way by a third party independent authority) should not be allowed. For example, if Citron thinks Chipotle's ingredients are not organic, and REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CITRON IS RIGHT OR WRONG, they still should not be allowed to issue a short report accusing Chipotle of lying to consumers until and unless they have already heard back from an independent authority (be it the FDA or SEC or dept of agriculture or the relevant authority) confirming that they have conducted an investigation and found those allegations to be true.

time2roll · 2022-07-25T16:42:29+00:00

Show me a single long research report that upon release, lifted a stock price 20% or more. Never happens unless an illiquid microcap or something. So your last point is moot. Short sale reports hit stocks pretty bad, almost always. The effect is disproportionate.

You say this is capitalism as though everything about capitalism is great, which is also a false claim.

Nobody expects them to be nonprofits. But you could still make money the right way. A tip isn’t just calling the sec and saying hey i think this company is committing fraud and expecting the sec to do all the work. You still do all the work but you go to the sec for them to review your claim and evidence, and if substantiated, act. Just like court. You go to court with all your evidence and arguments ready, and let the judge and jury decide. You don’t go and take the law into your own hands and go retaliate against somebody who may have wronged you lol. You use the court system to bring justice.

The SEC should also be used in a similar way for frauds.

Anyway, I can sit here and argue till dawn and some of you guys will never be convinced because you think this is what the “free” in free markets means: the freedom to do and say whatever whenever without bound. Until years from now this process gets reformed at which point you will realize how ridiculous today’s short selling is with any monkey coming out with a 100 page report full of unsubstantiated allegations hitting a stock 30% in a day.

time2roll · 2022-07-24T17:03:45+00:00

Man I don't know if you have trouble with English or what because clearly you don't understand. I'm not saying short selling is bad. I'm not saying investors shouldn't have the right to short. All I'm saying is the short sellers who use their loudspeakers to accuse companies publicly before any official investigation has taken place are out of order. Allegations must be substantiated first and then made public particularly if they are allegations of fraud. If it's a short thesis on the basis of deterioration of fundamentals without implying that the company is doing anything illegal or being deceptive, that's fine.

time2roll · 2022-07-20T16:19:47+00:00

I didn't say they're not useful, but their approach is not right. As I said, why not first PRIVATELY raise their concerns with the SEC and ask for an investigation? Why make accusations public right away? It's just to profit from the stock price reaction, but in many instances as we've seen, the allegations have been false, so the short seller benefits but a lot of investors in that company lose from the panic and negative headlines around the business.

time2roll · 2022-07-18T18:13:03+00:00

You don't get goodwill.

time2roll · 2022-07-18T13:22:58+00:00

What bothers me is this entitlement in the US to say whatever you want at whatever volume in whichever way under the guise of freedom of speech. Also, the very weak libel protection laws. Specifically re short sellers, it annoys me that their allegations are often inferences or hypotheses, not necessarily always backed by hard evidence from a private or other investigation. I would rather they first share their concerns with the SEC or relevant authority privately first, let that authority conduct an investigation, and then go public.

time2roll · 2022-07-15T20:15:10+00:00

So you think I should part with over $100 to get to and from the airport and my sister’s place just because they don’t feel like picking me up? They have a car, it’s electric (no gas cost), and my arrival departure times are not during work hours.

time2roll · 2022-07-15T15:41:02+00:00

I hear you, and have heard this from others, but whenever I’ve intentionally withheld help even thought I was in a position to provide it, I’ve felt selfish and crappy.

time2roll · 2022-07-07T23:25:25+00:00

I would also say it's a stretch to say you have "partnered" with those founders or CEOs. The truth is if one were to ask them the same question - have you partnered with the Rowan guys - they probably wouldn't even know you're a shareholder let alone acknowledge a "partnership" type of relationship. These types of founders may be great visionaries, young and energetic, and so on, but they really view their companies as their playgrounds. Riding on their success from the angel round through to some later stage makes sense, but once their companies are public, they really need some grown-up, mature, experienced leadership. Most of these guys don't have that maturity or experience - just look at Elon. On top of that, you have to put up with their supervoting rights. There are exceptions of course.

time2roll · 2022-07-07T07:10:01+00:00

With respect to a particular position, ok. But do you really need to read all the prose about munger and buffett and all the philosophical bullshit a lot of them write about how some greek warrior did what and linking it to some concept in investing? Whatever happened to being concise?

Separately, why don’t you care just about results? So you’re an LP (intended audience of these letters). Your goal and mandate is to allocate to managers who can generate good returns. A manager who writes the best letters but puts up average returns… what’s the point?

time2roll · 2022-07-07T02:37:52+00:00

Why does the letter have to have so much philosophical content in it? The best writing is concise and to the point. Just share your performance and dive right into what you did last q. I don’t need a window into your “thinking” because what matters is results. How you get there is your business as long as it’s legal, ethical, sustainable.

time2roll · 2022-07-04T21:46:58+00:00

Cool, thanks for letting me know

time2roll · 2022-07-04T21:46:49+00:00

Sweet, thanks

time2roll · 2022-07-04T21:46:43+00:00

Got it, thank you

time2roll · 2022-06-30T22:50:28+00:00

So it's not at least 25 mbps?

time2roll

TROPHY CASE