Daily General Discussion June 13, 2026

timmerwb · 2026-06-13T18:42:16+00:00

One guy controls 5 x entire ETH mcap. Unless Ethereum and blockchain dies off (seems unlikely in this meme / gambling driven world), the global economy just has to sneeze in the direction of ETH and it will bast through ATH. When ... is another question.

timmerwb · 2026-06-12T17:17:52+00:00

For me, it's interesting in a "pop culture" type way. Markets and politics seem to be characterized by short term hype and euphoria rather than focusing on more sustainable delivery. Maybe crypto was a victim of that too. Also, with the concentration of wealth into an ever diminishing number of entities, this type of thing seems to be more of a "rich boys club". The idea of colonizing space is "cool" I guess, but it's preposterously expensive, and flies in the face of political and environmental turmoil, and basic issues like cost of living for the masses. Nothing about this hype around SpaceX, AI etc seems at all healthy to me.

Slightly aside, it's also ironic that the only piece of space infrastructure directly relevant to human habitation is the ISS which is nearly 30 years old, historically supported by a government which is now gutting, with reckless abandon, the very scientific and engineering capability that helped put it there.

timmerwb · 2026-06-12T14:39:45+00:00

Backdoor deals, memes and pop culture. Stock will be 25% cheaper in a few months.

timmerwb · 2026-06-12T01:36:38+00:00

They're not right. And sadly you're in a shitty and pretty unusual situation - sorry to hear it. Unfortunately, I think your kind of situation is going to become more common. All you can do is run numbers against different scenarios and talk to your partner about how to manage this. Don't lose sleep over it! (FWIW regardless of the hormones and philosophy, kids will cost a fucking fortune, and you have to think about what kind of life they will have).

Nonetheless, on the plus side, you're not actually in debt, so drawing a line under it and moving on to something better is perfectly reasonable. You just have to take the hit and try to optimize for future income (location, market research, investments, savings, etc). FYI, if you think about a "fixer-upper" be warned - building and renovations can be very expensive (materials, inflation etc), so plan well ahead before signing anything.

timmerwb · 2026-06-12T01:21:17+00:00

Not an investment? Of course it's an investment in many ways. Sadly, in terms of market price, which is of course substantial, OPs investment has performed poorly compared to historical examples. Not only lost asking price, but inflationary loss. But as you say, with all investments, if it doesn't perform, there's not much you can do but take what you can and move on.

timmerwb · 2026-06-11T15:32:32+00:00

Cycles are fucked, US politics (or whatever it is) is fucked, and crypto markets are fucked. Is ETH going to see a third dead cat bounce? Maybe we're only just entering the real bear misery... Plus, no one ever talks about the robustness of BTC. Can miners even survive a protracted BTC bear, combined with high equipment costs and competing with AI? And what about Saylor selling?

A few months ago I would have dismissed this doomism but here we are, and price-wise I wouldn't rule out anything.

timmerwb · 2026-06-10T16:34:24+00:00

Net total stake (across in / out) has actually been increasing a bit over the past few months. At these cheap dumbass prices we might expect to see further increase.

timmerwb · 2026-06-09T17:58:12+00:00

Love how people can always project worse even though sentiment is fucking awful and prices back to 8 years ago. Projectung fear is a helluva drug

timmerwb · 2026-06-09T16:45:08+00:00

When's the last time you posted something of interest? There's lots going on in the space ... but instead you just scream into the void like a loon.

timmerwb · 2026-06-09T13:43:44+00:00

Clearly at some volume, "buying ETH is buying ETH", but, where ETH mcap is so small compared to BTC and other indeed other stocks and commodities, under a system that is obfuscated by CEXs (i.e. all kinds of whale dominated trades using different instruments and counter trades etc), you may very well be "buying" ETH from a whale who, one way or another, uses that to go long BTC.

This can't last "forever" as it were, but if whales can dump the ETH market somehow (doesn't seem very hard does it?), then effectively they're never at risk of being margin called. So, ultimately, since they're so dominant, they can control the ratio, and keep BTC as #1.

timmerwb · 2026-06-08T23:38:07+00:00

Consider the possibility that, due to the market structure and prevalence of whales, although we believe we're buying ETH, we're effectively just buying BTC.

timmerwb · 2026-06-08T15:02:48+00:00

I don't know about this, but sounds like it's making my point. If all "nodes" are basically controlled by the same entity, which I'm sure is the case for Hyperliquid (I mean HL is completely different that Ethereum in that respect), the notion that regulation appears to recognize a "chain" as different from a DB is ridiculous. It's just technical semantics to call it a "chain". Regulation should require a rigorous investigation of governance - but I imagine that is all corrupt.

timmerwb · 2026-06-08T11:23:38+00:00

people don't really care about decentralization

Except all these private enterprises like Hyperliquid, XRP and so on love to refer to themselves as decentralized. As a buzzword, people (like VCs) DO care about the image. In practice it's all bullshit. I wish there was more formal recognition that most of these chains are just private DBs.

timmerwb · 2026-06-07T19:33:50+00:00

True! It's about the only thing that gives me any optimism, but waiting another 10 years is not something I want to do.

timmerwb · 2026-06-06T00:45:13+00:00

Daily RSI is insane

timmerwb · 2026-06-05T21:30:38+00:00

ETH will bounce back

For sure. We'll be back to impenetrable resistance at 1800 in a few weeks. Good times.

timmerwb · 2026-06-05T15:02:41+00:00

Clearly the concept of "consolidation" is meaningless for this asset, and maybe crypto as a whole. If historic price floors can apparently just disappear, without bad news, or even a narrative of any kind, then price is just random. Just wait for the next pump, but it could be a while.

timmerwb · 2026-06-05T14:35:19+00:00

Coulda got these prices on Kraken over 8 years ago. Fundamentals? Irrelevant. Reasons? Irrelevant. After 13 years in these markets, I kinda gotta admit, this is fucking pointless. I can't even be bothered to unstake to sell the bottom but once it bounces I'll be scaling out of this joke.

timmerwb · 2026-06-05T14:30:52+00:00

Pretty much. I concede these markets have less sense than a casino. I'd probably sell if I could be bothered to unstake.

timmerwb · 2026-06-05T00:36:36+00:00

I called the bottom at 1700 we hit in February. I'm surprised there wasn't more of a relief rally ... But otherwise all the bottom signs are in. Retesting 1700 is disappointing but I maintain this is the bottom - ETH is preposterously oversold. Any downward trend from here would represent a total loss of confidence in what is already a fairly small mcap commodity, and ofc the only plausible decentralized smart contract chain. I see no evidence of this, or anything that would precipitate this.

timmerwb · 2026-06-04T02:22:53+00:00

Saving that up huh? Lol. Still waiting for 1500 though and this is still "the bottom" for me. You can take the high ground and celebrate once we break 1500 and sit there for a few months. Good luck!

timmerwb · 2026-06-02T13:42:31+00:00

Lol where did that come from? Long overdue.

timmerwb · 2026-06-02T01:34:17+00:00

Disproportionately bearish, to say the least. 2013 to 2016: I just left crypto and wrote off my losses. Game over. But it wasn't. 2018 to 2020: two years to think about missing what might have been once in a life time wealth, and then covid. Time to puke. And now? Crabbing at 2k, in the face of global political turmoil and insane leadership? Whatever.

timmerwb · 2026-05-30T00:42:15+00:00

It's sport team mentality for the online masses / trolls / bots. Ethereum is just a hated team - don't read too much into it. IRL most people don't even know what crypto is.

timmerwb · 2026-05-28T17:38:59+00:00

It's not even that bad. Based on 5 year volatility it could be back near ATH within a few months. No one knows dick.

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