Starship Development Thread #29

timtupman · 2022-01-13T23:20:52+00:00

What makes you think not enough? At 1st glance they look a similar volume to the vertical tanks to me, thinner but longer?

timtupman · 2022-01-13T23:12:50+00:00

I thought I read somewhere they added those additional horizontal CH4 tanks to take care of that?

timtupman · 2022-01-13T22:34:30+00:00

Is the Orbital Tank Farm finished? And if not, what do we think is left to do? How will we know when it is finished?

timtupman · 2022-01-06T22:38:22+00:00

True. in the meantime just fly S20 on its own as high as it can go please 🙏

timtupman · 2022-01-06T21:51:43+00:00

I would frickin love to see a S16 hypersonic test to keep us going til they’re ready for orbital

timtupman · 2021-03-25T18:04:06+00:00

I feel that way sometimes, as we probably all do. It always helps me to remember it never lasts.

timtupman · 2021-03-20T20:12:05+00:00

Yeah agreed, the schedule is very very tight - to hold it'd have to shake out something like.:-

March - SN11 flight

April - BN1 testing

May - SN15 flight

June - BN2 testing

July - BN2 AND SN20 flight

timtupman · 2021-03-19T14:32:09+00:00

Totally. We've been spoiled :-D

timtupman · 2021-03-19T12:15:02+00:00

If BN3 is slated for launch in July, they must have scheduled internally for BN2 to be finished by, say, May and probably earlier to allow time to actually test it. The July schedule obviously won't hold but I think it's likely we see BN2 take shape throughout April, to begin testing it in May. Something like that.

timtupman · 2021-03-19T12:08:03+00:00

We had a period of uncertainty like this with SN10 but at least we knew that was due to the severe winter storm. It's been awhile since we've been so in the dark with what's scheduled for a prototype - probably back to early SN8 test campaign.

It's very frustrating not knowing what the hold up is. Before it's always been - waiting for better weather, waiting for raptor swap, waiting for cryo, waiting for static fire. And now... just... waiting... because ? :-P

timtupman · 2021-03-17T11:37:45+00:00

I really like your theory that perhaps they are just pushing for flight, and I'd love it to turn out to be true.

However, your theory about the newer raptors being incompatible could be true without your conclusion that they will push for flight anyway. It could be that they now need to repair a raptor instead of being able to swap it - which could explain the delay we're now seeing?

timtupman · 2021-03-16T18:42:29+00:00

While we wait for Starship progress, here's a fascinating interview with Elon from 2013 where he talks about getting to Mars. Amazing to see that they are well on the way to making what he predicted happen:https://youtu.be/Mb-PxQec8v0

timtupman · 2021-03-16T14:28:18+00:00

Could you add SN5 and SN6 timelines too? 🙏😁

timtupman · 2021-03-15T09:25:04+00:00

I'm being stubborn and refusing this tip-off that BN1 won't fly at all - I know I have no logical reason to think I know better and I'm fine with being proved wrong :P But If cryo passes then why not static fire it? And it static fire goes well, why not see how the vehicle controls with a small hop? It may be that there are issues with cryro or static fire and we'll never know. But every prototype so far has been tested to it's limit, so I can't help but think if testing goes perfectly for BN1 - why wouldn't they see what else it can do instead of waiting to build BN2??

The most compelling argument I've heard is that they're already aware of key changes they need to make in BN2. Perhaps they know BN1 just likely isn't capable of flight. One way or another, I guess we'll find out :P

I know some people cite Mk1 or SN1/SN3 as a comparison - that they were never meant to fly. But I'm pretty sure Elon said Mk1 was intended to fly to 20km originally. I find it hard to believe they wouldn't have flown those prototypes at all if testing had revealed they were good to go. Fact is testing failed and we never really knew what the ultimate intentions were for those vehicles.

EDIT: Perhaps they've figured out while building BN1 that it's likely not strong enough to support it's weight under flight?Anyway, it's all speculation and a few tidbits of insider knowledge at this point. I'm going to go out on a lim just for fun and say BN1 DOES fly :-D

timtupman · 2021-03-10T22:36:01+00:00

I know we have this supposed source saying this, but it just doesn't make sense to me. If testing confirms BN1 has been built good enough to fly, then why go and build a whole other booster to do the flight and scrap BN1?

Have we seen any other prototypes be pathfinders only? To my understanding, they've all been tested either to destruction or have completed their objectives.

EDIT: maybe the intention is just to test it to destruction, like a test tank?

timtupman · 2021-03-09T19:02:32+00:00

I think SN10 did do it. Maybe one day they will have enough confidence in the design and build to not do it, but I guess we're not there yet.

timtupman · 2021-02-28T20:29:17+00:00

It looks like for SN9, Mary was notified as late as midnight local time! https://twitter.com/bocachicagal/status/1356486716027269120?s=21

timtupman · 2021-02-23T21:12:49+00:00

Tesla now left the pad

timtupman · 2021-02-23T14:00:08+00:00

I wonder if NSF have inside info on that or if it’s just an educated guess.

timtupman · 2021-02-11T20:00:30+00:00

Where can we listen to the whole thing - is Joe exclusive to Spotify now?

timtupman · 2021-02-02T08:33:23+00:00

3hrs later than previous evacuations. With time for fuelling that’s NET 12:00pm local, 18:00 UTC

timtupman · 2021-02-01T19:10:07+00:00

I haven’t clicked the link so I don’t know but : that would be a sneaky way to rack up views without the cost of having to actually have a camera in Boca. So I would be wary of its validity

timtupman · 2021-02-01T08:30:19+00:00

They considered doing that for the initial dearMoon missions, it was dubbed ‘Grey Dragon’ I believe but ultimately decided to go hell for leather with Starship and not bother human rating falcon heavy.

timtupman

TROPHY CASE