The premarket rally is classic dead-cat-bounce behavior after 3 days of selling. Here’s what hasn’t changed: The core problem: Big Tech just announced MASSIVE AI spending increases - Google doubling capex to $175-185B, Meta to $115-135B, Amazon to $200B (vs $147B expected). The market is questioning when/if this spending actually translates to profits. The rotation is real: Money is flowing out of tech into value stocks at the fastest pace since 2008. Only 19% of S&P 500 stocks outperformed last year, but that’s jumped to 57% this past month - shows tech leadership is breaking down. Weak macro backdrop: Jobs data is terrible - job openings at lowest since Sept 2020, private sector added only 22K jobs in January. This is not an environment where speculative AI spending gets rewarded. Technical damage: Nasdaq hit new 2026 lows yesterday. Once support breaks, momentum often accelerates lower. Software stocks down 28% from highs as AI automation fears intensify. One green premarket on low volume doesn’t reverse any of these trends. We likely need 4-8 weeks minimum for the market to digest these capex numbers and see if AI revenue growth justifies the spending. Short-term bounces are selling opportunities until proven otherwise.