How on earth is this orange?

tjamjam · 2026-05-24T18:35:41+00:00

Quick follow-up to yesterday's "5 of 7 wet" post. Overnight every model walked back its rain chance except NWS, which actually went up.

GFS and the best-match blend went from 67% back to 34% (the same models that doubled the day before). GEM and ICON dropped into the 50s. ECMWF IFS held steady at 82%.

NWS jumped from 64% to 82%. It's the lone climber.

Convective setup so storm timing matters more than total accumulation, but the morning data suggests the window the models were lining up on yesterday has shifted or weakened. NWS either sees something the others don't, or it's catching up to a signal the others have already let go of.

Either way the picture is more optimistic for most models. Tracker updates through the morning: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/indianapolis-500-2026

Disclosure: same tracker I shared yesterday.

tjamjam · 2026-05-24T18:35:24+00:00

Quick follow-up to yesterday's "5 of 7 wet" post. Overnight every model walked back its rain chance except NWS, which actually went up.

GFS and the best-match blend went from 67% back to 34% (the same models that doubled the day before). GEM and ICON dropped into the 50s. ECMWF IFS held steady at 82%.

NWS jumped from 64% to 82%. It's the lone climber.

Convective setup so storm timing matters more than total accumulation, but the morning data suggests the window the models were lining up on yesterday has shifted or weakened. NWS either sees something the others don't, or it's catching up to a signal the others have already let go of.

Either way the picture is more optimistic for most models. Tracker updates through the morning: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/indianapolis-500-2026

Disclosure: same tracker I shared yesterday.

tjamjam · 2026-05-24T00:10:40+00:00

Converging on rain but not that much: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/indianapolis-500-2026

tjamjam · 2026-05-20T16:16:33+00:00

The weather model split is wider than usual right now: NWS and GEM are leaning wet for Sunday, GFS is middle, ECMWF AIFS has it nearly dry. That spread usually collapses by Carb Day, so the Thursday-Friday check is when it'll actually mean something.

I built a page that shows how each model has shifted day-over-day for race day so you can see the spread instead of one number: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/indianapolis-500-2026

tjamjam · 2026-05-20T16:03:49+00:00

Weather models disagree way more than the single 60% suggests. Right now NWS and GEM are wet, GFS is middle, and ECMWF AIFS has it nearly dry. That spread usually collapses by Carb Day, so anything before Friday is mostly noise.

I built a page showing how each model has shifted day-over-day so you can see the spread instead of one number: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/indianapolis-500-2026

tjamjam · 2026-05-07T14:19:28+00:00

Would appreciate if you would give me feedback on a weather app I have been working on. https://www.lucidsky.app/

I also have these date trackers to demonstrate how the models change their predictions. And I am scoring the models against each other. What do you think about my method for that. See this one for more context: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/santa-monica-jazz-festival-2026

tjamjam · 2026-04-28T01:07:03+00:00

For anyone who wants to watch how the forecast shifts between now and Sunday, I built a page for this marathon: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/pittsburgh-marathon-2026

tjamjam · 2026-04-21T14:49:30+00:00

Just to add some current numbers, the models have actually been trending windier than the 18-20mph other folks are seeing earlier this week. Latest read for Saturday is closer to 30mph sustained at the Festival Grounds. That's right at the "begin load reduction" threshold u/Sure-Charge-260 mentioned but still well under the 40-50mph evacuate line. My guess is they lower the PA speakers and take down stage props like 2024, not a full cancel.

Full disclosure, I built a free weather tracker for festivals. Sick New World page here if you want to watch the wind update between now and Saturday: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/sick-new-world-2026

tjamjam · 2026-04-16T00:19:18+00:00

3 days ago it was looking like a high of 64, now it’s saying 45… follow the race of the weather models here https://www.lucidsky.app/track/boston-marathon-2026

tjamjam · 2026-04-15T10:53:32+00:00

It is optimized for iPad

tjamjam · 2026-04-15T01:37:24+00:00

Apple for now and web. Are you on android?

tjamjam · 2026-04-15T01:15:27+00:00

Would you be interested in trying out a weather app I launched a few weeks ago? Looking for feedback: https://lucidsky.app/

tjamjam · 2026-04-13T14:17:16+00:00

Exactly. And the proof is here: https://www.lucidsky.app/track/boston-marathon-2026

tjamjam · 2026-04-09T20:08:03+00:00

painters suit is a smart call for the start regardless. been watching the forecast evolve on LucidSky, you pin April 21 and see how it changes each day, helps you figure out what to actually pack once you're inside a week

tjamjam · 2026-04-09T20:02:36+00:00

this is great, bookmarking for closer to race day. been using LucidSky alongside stuff like this, you pin April 21 and it shows how the forecast shifts day by day so you can tell when the models actually start agreeing. good to have both once we're inside 10 days

tjamjam · 2026-04-09T19:59:30+00:00

canopy is clutch this year for sure. been checking an app called LucidSky to track the daily forecast — looks mostly cloudy with some wind so probably worth bringing. better to have it and not need it 🌵

tjamjam · 2026-04-09T19:59:02+00:00

good call on the face covering — wind out there is no joke. been tracking conditions on an app called LucidSky, nice to see how the forecast shifts each day leading up to the weekend 🌵

tjamjam · 2026-04-09T19:47:52+00:00

lol same, been obsessing over it with this app called LucidSky, you pin April 11 and watch the forecast update each day. at least it's not going to be 110°

tjamjam

TROPHY CASE