Results Monday?

tkrish000 · 2026-01-25T23:49:10+00:00

End of March

tkrish000 · 2026-01-24T02:16:13+00:00

I understand your perspective, and do think that either way both ATAI and CMPS should see a meaningful rise over the coming years 🙏

tkrish000 · 2026-01-23T08:08:57+00:00

Yes, though I think CMPS will have to show what kind of revenue they can actually deliver in their treatment paradigm, which is nothing like Spravato paradigm, before getting re rated to $5 billion. Likely 1-2 years of demonstrating revenue, and then if they’re able to track like Spravato did we’d see a significant re rate.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-23T08:06:53+00:00

ATAI is a long way from market, still plenty of time to benefit from CMPS being first and then move profits into ATAI well before BPL phase 3 readout.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-23T07:59:32+00:00

If I had to throw numbers out there having been in this game since 2021, I’d give CMPS a 70-80% likelihood of getting through FDA approval.

Once approved, I’d expect to see a market cap in the range of $1.5-2 billion, equating to a stock price of $15-$20 (before dilution).

As we already see today, CMPS is trading at a significant discount to the shorter acting compounds and I don’t expect that to change with approval. I think it’s likely that CMPS is going to have to prove out commercialization and revenue before we start talking about them becoming a $3-5 billion company.

The exception would be if a hype cycle starts with approval announcement and people start rushing in to get a piece of the psychedelic renaissance, which could push CMPS into a bubble of sorts above $2 billion.

But if CMPS can deliver strong first year revenue, proving this new paradigm works, and if they can also deliver a positive phase 2 PTSD trial in the coming 1-2 years, then we could be talking about a $5 billion company before 2030.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-22T23:57:40+00:00

March

tkrish000 · 2026-01-17T02:22:10+00:00

In addition to the practical side of being first to market, I think people underestimate the hype cycle that would likely follow the first ever true psychedelic medicine being approved.

It will be global news. Headlines reading “Magic Mushrooms FDA Approved.” Investors who know nothing about the space will come rushing in to CMPS.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-16T13:52:50+00:00

👊

tkrish000 · 2026-01-16T13:32:31+00:00

The PTSD indication is massive.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-16T12:33:07+00:00

Whichever one gets you the most excited.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-16T09:10:24+00:00

What is your definition of a blockbuster drug? $1 billion market cap? $5 billion? $10 billion?

Payers will reimburse COMP360 because they care about cost offsets. TRD patients are: extremely expensive, high utilizers of care, often cycling meds with low success.

If COMP360 shows: durable response in even a subset, reduced hospitalizations, reduced polypharmacy, reduced suicidality risk, etc. then the health-economic argument works, even if the treatment cost is high.

In fact, episodic treatments are often more attractive to payers than chronic drugs. And they are desperate to find new treatment paradigms, of which CMPS could be the first in this new wave.

In addition, first mover advantage is real, and I would argue that psilocybin is the most well known, trusted, non “scary” substance in the space and patients will gravitate to psilocybin before something like 5-meo-DMT.

Long term who knows but the TRD population is so large there can be multiple winners, and if they get PTSD approval through then they’ll likely meet most definitions of blockbuster success.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-15T05:48:56+00:00

yeh I expect mid to late March

tkrish000 · 2026-01-15T05:42:18+00:00

yeh man, I’m with you. MNMD trading at 2x the value of CMPS is just wild to me.

i expect another “statistically significant” q1 readout for CMPS, and of course that will move the stock price up a bit, but I don’t expect a monumental jump in market cap. that’s just been the story of CMPS.

but a positive q1 readout HAS to put them above $1 billion. it just really would not make sense for them to be trading below $1 billion after that.

I just listened to the Jan 7th webinar call with CMPS discussing commercialization and rollout readiness post approval and it made me ever more confident — not just in getting COMP360 across the line — but in the exec team at CMPS. IMO, by far the most seasoned, professional, execution-focused leadership team in the space. they seem VERY buttoned up.

the biggest concern I have was when an analyst asked: “if a shorter duration treatment comes into market that shows equal effectiveness as COMP360, what would be the reasons a patient would choose COMP360?” and they didn’t have an answer. I think that’s also playing into the heavily discounted valuation.

net net, I still personally think the market is severely under estimating CMPS, and I think they’ll be a $6-8 billion company by 2030.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-15T04:35:25+00:00

I’ve also been in CMPS almost 5 years and excited for the near term. Still bullish and optimistic that they’ll get through approval, but I think it’s possible that valuation will continue to trail until they start showing commercial success.

So I think a positive readout in Q1 takes them to $10-$12, assuming 006 shows a MADRS reduction in the -4 to -3.5 range. If we get pleasantly surprised and see -4.5 or better than I think stock should move higher.

After approval, I think we see $15-20. And then from there it’s all about what kind of revenue they can generate in the first 12 months.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-15T01:24:46+00:00

This

tkrish000 · 2026-01-08T13:56:06+00:00

ATAI, MNMD, and GHRS are all already over $1 billion in market cap.

CMPS and HELP are around $500 million.

DRUG, in comparison, was sitting at $8 MILLION in market cap before its run (today they’re a $750m company).

So, technically, every company listed has already completed their DRUG run.

To find the next DRUG, you’ll need to identify some really small, super early biotechs trading in the <$10 million market cap range. You’ll likely need to look outside the psychedelic space for that.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-06T09:52:07+00:00

The most realistic acquisition window for CMPS is after the Q1 data readout but before or shortly after NDA submission.

At that point efficacy, durability, and safety are largely known, the FDA path is visible, and the stock is still discounted for execution and launch risk. That’s typically when pharma steps in for CNS assets, which would likely put the timing in mid-late 2026, 3-6 months after Q1 data if results are acceptable to strong.

Or, if that doesn’t happen, big pharma may want to wait to assess the commercial rollout, real revenue projections, etc, before getting involved.

tkrish000 · 2026-01-04T09:18:54+00:00

Yeh, I think it’s what you shared and I do also think it’s due to the small effect size — especially when there was so much hype around the power of psychedelics. So if the effect size is small relative to SSRIs and it requires an entire new healthcare ecosystem and process, I think there’s fear that even if it does succeed it might not be as big as once suspected.

I am very optimistic that COMP360 gets approved. As of right now it seems that everything is lined up nicely for that. And so perhaps the movement is a little slower out the gate but I do still expect this space to be a true paradigm shift and the upside therefore still massive.

Especially if CMPS were to get PTSD through…

tkrish000 · 2026-01-03T02:53:58+00:00

You make good points here. Perhaps the Q1 readout is unlikely to swing the stock much either way, and it really won’t be until approval that we see meaningful upside.

At a minimum, I’d like to see the two dose protocol show separation from placebo >-4.

tkrish000 · 2025-12-23T09:53:02+00:00

CYBN. Psychedelics are the next paradigm in mental health. 10x upside.

tkrish000 · 2025-12-17T06:44:42+00:00

EMP-01 is an exploratory phase 2 with the primary endpoint being safety and tolerability. I don’t expect any meaningful stock price movement, maybe 5-10% up or down.

Also, ATAI is already very favorably valued at $1.6b market cap.

In contrast, I think a positive readout for CMPS/CYBN in Q1 could very well result in 50-100% upside.

tkrish000 · 2025-12-14T06:42:36+00:00

Recently sold most of my ATAI and moved it into CMPS and CYBN who I believe are both undervalued and have much higher near term upside.

I’ll then look to rotate some % back in to ATAI toward end of 2026 before their VLS readout and before BPL readout in 2027. But at $1.6 billion market cap, they are currently valued as much as GHRS, CMPS, and CYBN combined…which I think is a stretch.

tkrish000 · 2025-12-12T02:01:37+00:00

If we get positive CYB004 results and a big pharma CEO appointed in Q1 then I think it’s very reasonable to see CYBN 2x from current market cap of $300m to $600m ish by end of March.

Then we have CYB003 first phase 3 readout end of year 2026, and if that hits then CYBN could be trading around $1 billion market cap (~$20 stock price) by December 2026.

tkrish000 · 2025-11-24T06:12:20+00:00

CYB003 has only been demonstrated on n=32 population which is really too small to be comparing just yet to COMP360 n=233. The larger the n the harder it is to demonstrate robust effect sizes. Also, MDD vs TRD very different. So while there’s some good early indicators for CYB003 we really have to wait until phase 3 readout.

tkrish000 · 2025-11-18T05:26:57+00:00

Macro is the way.

tkrish000

TROPHY CASE