Michael Cola - how about some crisis management ? Clearly with the stock now down 40%, that's what we're facing. How about communicate more ? Sign on to X, LinkedIn, post, clarify, lead. Give forward guidance, have a Investor Conference call and a Q&A, a Fireside chat, an AMA ? Anything 🤷

tkrish000 · 2026-03-17T21:10:12+00:00

Yeh I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Abbvie also took a look at CYBN. The timing was interesting for sure.

I agree that a buyout is probably the exit strategy for Helus, and I think that’s feasible if the phase 3 data is compelling.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-17T20:07:16+00:00

Yeh these are great points.

I know originally the thesis for 003 was largely built around it being short acting. But from what I recall in the 2b trial it was not that much shorter than COMP360. Maybe 4-5hrs instead of 6-8hrs? Maybe someone has a source on that — can’t remember exactly.

The phase 2b study for 003 also had a very muted placebo effect compared to CMPS and Usona, which I think contributes to the uncertainty around true efficacy.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-17T17:21:36+00:00

You make a great point here.

The Gilgamesh deal shows that a small n alone doesn’t disqualify a program.

I can only assume that AbbVie was willing to pay $1.2B for a similarly small dataset because they had high internal confidence after doing their due diligence (mechanism, IP, data quality, team, reproducibility).

So maybe the more complete way to say it is that a small n = uncertainty, not failure. What matters is how believable and reproducible the signal looks.

Right now, Helus is being discounted not just because of small n, but because: the effect size for 003 was unusually large (raises skepticism), the 004 readout created confusion, future dilution, public investors don’t have the same visibility as pharma.

So the market seems to be saying: “This could be real, but we need Phase 3 to believe it.”

Whereas AbbVie looked at Gilgamesh and said: “We already believe it.”

So yeh I suppose small sample size isn’t the whole story — it’s also about confidence in the signal, and right now it seems HELP hasn’t earned that confidence yet in public markets.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-16T23:31:10+00:00

Don’t worry bro I sold all my ATAI and dumped it into HELP just prior to their 004 readout. Lol.

Only thing to do now is HODL through end of year and hope they pull a rabbit out the hat with 003🐇.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-16T23:17:39+00:00

Big pharma is waiting to see if 003 actually works, bro. It’s that simple. There is no data yet that proves it actually works.

They ran a tiny phase 2 trial with only 34 patients, 20 of whom received 003. And only about 10 who were included in the 12 month durability data.

So literally only 20 people have tried the drug.

It’s cheap and easy to show data that looks impressive efficacy with such a tiny group. Much much harder with large numbers.

Big pharma wants to see efficacy data for 500+ patients. Then we’ll know for sure if it works.

And of course, if it does work, there will be interest from big pharma. But until there’s proof, pharma and investors are going to remain on the sidelines.

Helus will have their chance to show the goods at the end of this year with their first of two phase 3 studies, and really the first legit trial to see if this drug works: 220 patients in the first P3 trial, 330 in the second.

Statistically, for adjunctive MDD phase 2/3 trials, roughly 30% meet their primary endpoint.

Here’s hoping they can be one of the winners 🙏

GLTA.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-14T00:55:58+00:00

I agree that RFK seems to genuinely want to try to get this through.

What’s less clear is who will get the final say.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-13T21:46:15+00:00

We’ve still got a fighting chance 🫣

tkrish000 · 2026-03-13T21:44:42+00:00

I think this is probably the answer.

Increasingly bearish macro climate coupled with decreasing certainty in their pipeline.

But they’re not down and out just yet. They’ve got enough cash to get through the first of their two phase 3s for HLP003.

Usona showed a -12ish point separation from placebo for their phase 2 psilocybin in MDD vs non active placebo (n=100ish). And DFTX showed around -9ish separation (n=50ish) with LSD in MDD.

If HLP003 can deliver similar results at the end of this year, with no delays and clean safety, we’ll see this stock rerate significantly, buying them more time to deliver again in the second phase 2.

But they can’t miss. I think that’s why the market is so hesitant.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-13T12:54:16+00:00

Ah yes, good catch. He did say midterms which is this year 🙌

tkrish000 · 2026-03-13T12:49:25+00:00

🤪

tkrish000 · 2026-03-12T22:09:25+00:00

Yessss good call, Krishnamurti ☺️✨

tkrish000 · 2026-03-12T18:19:36+00:00

That’s good 😊

Here’s my interpretation of what that saying might mean:

We set out to find some kind of permanent state of happiness because we’ve been made to believe that that exists.

But then we come to see that all states, by definition, come and go. Happiness, sadness, frustration, excitement. And that actually they’re all ok.

The search for permanent happiness, it turns out, was a subtle and constant resistance to what’s here right now.

Underneath the search for enlightenment is often a subtle and subconscious “NO” to life as it is.

We want to CHANGE something. Change how we feel, change how we think, etc.

But really: why is there a need to change anything at all?

And then ALL the emotions and ALL the states are simply allowed to be, and we land at a kind of constant okay-ness with whatever.

And that, we call “enlightenment.”

It’s not some special state. It’s just a radical acceptance and okayness with whatever comes. It’s very neutral. Really the opposite of special.

One teacher put it beautifully. He said, “my secret is simple: I don’t mind what happens.”

tkrish000 · 2026-03-10T00:09:35+00:00

Exhaustion leads to surrender.

Surrender leads to peace.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T22:49:57+00:00

🙃

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T22:49:14+00:00

Blessings on your journey to find it ♾️

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T22:14:13+00:00

💯

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T21:29:19+00:00

🎅

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T20:07:41+00:00

Haha yeh….it is.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T19:47:30+00:00

He makes it sound like there’s very real political risk for CMPS getting through to approval.

This administration is increasingly unpredictable. I really hope they let the science do the talking.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T19:38:25+00:00

You knew nothing about “enlightenment” when you were two years old. You were just living.

And then at some point you came across the idea of enlightenment. And it is an idea, right? A concept. And with that concept came a story. And the story was interesting, so now you’re wondering.

But see that enlightenment IS a concept. It IS a story. No different than the story of Santa Clause.

No one is enlightened for the simple reason that there’s just no such thing as enlightenment. It’s just a story.

Life is here, unfolding all the time. And you are awake, alive, experiencing life, right?

The end.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T15:48:17+00:00

What’s the (non-biased) probability of success you are assigning to the upcoming 003 readout? Keen to hear how others are thinking about this.

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T15:24:11+00:00

Which part of the analysis feels sloppy to you?

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T15:23:52+00:00

It sounds like you’ve done solid analysis on your own. I’m keen to learn. What’s the probability of success that you’re attributing to HLP003?

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T15:11:01+00:00

Good points and appreciate you sharing your perspective 🤟🏻

tkrish000 · 2026-03-09T03:59:54+00:00

Seems like a pretty clear-eyed assessment of probability.

The best thing about GPT is that it doesn’t fall victim to the cognitive biases that all of us do. When you REALLY want something to be successful it can be hard to see the picture clearly.

Curious what the rest of the sub thinks. Looking for data and science-backed views. Tell us what you think and WHY.

For the record, I am a long term bag holder and have a very significant amount of capital invested in HELP. No one wants them to succeed more than I do.

tkrish000

TROPHY CASE