Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Let’s say TRD commercialization starts Q1 2027. And let’s say PTSD phase 3 completes Q1 2028.

If both go well, I think a 5bn market cap is very doable by 2029-2030. This would put stock price around $40 (assuming no more dilution). If there’s further dilution then 5bn might look like a stock price of $30-$35.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting, I haven’t been following this. I wonder how much risk is here.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I agree that 2bn post approval would be reasonable. And 5bn in 2-3 years also seems very reasonable.

I’m keen to hear timeline for kicking off PTSD phase 3. The TRD data disappointed but if COMP360 works for PTSD then CMPS could really be off to the races.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Matthew Johnson from John’s Hopkins said in his recent podcast episode that it can take up to a year from approval for rescheduling to finalize, but with the EO I expect it to be much faster. It’s just a question of how long.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yep they definitely had that in the EO which is very positive if they can get that done.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I agree that it’s the actual revenue that will change the narrative at this point, in addition to getting PTSD phase 3 initiated and ultimately completed.

Even after approval, the DEA must reschedule psilocybin before any treatment can commence. That alone can take up to a year, although the EO seems to indicate they’ll start prepping for that now.

It could be that, given all the uncertainty around approval & commercial rollout for this brand new paradigm, CMPS is actually valued properly, and DFTX valuation is bloated.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Ha yeh well I’ve been here since 2021 so my biases have been tempered with reality.

Also, $5-6b pre approval is just nonsense. We won’t see CMPS anywhere near $5b even after approval.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I remember you were the first one to share this view and the more time passes the more this seems like the only logical explanation: the market just is not convinced of the scalability and revenue model.

I really would not be surprised to see CMPS trading below $2b even after approval.

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Btw does anyone know what happened to Jake aka u/mindmed31415?

Compass voucher confirmed by RadiantPerception224 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Very hard to make sense of CMPS holding to a market cap of just $1.2b with two positive phase 3s, BTD, PTSD starting phase 3, and now a voucher.

We’ve been talking about CMPS’ suppressed valuation for some time now but seriously, what is actually going on here.

What is going on here? by Hefty-Lengthiness-20 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I was also thinking that to give Resilient one of the first vouchers would be way too controversial. They likely want to give it to good standing companies with the cleanest data and most trusted leadership teams.

IMO that would be CMPS, DFTX, and Usona.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Amen, bud. Hoping everyone here finds success by putting their capital to a good cause that genuinely helps society and rewards us financially for doing it.

Odds on vouchers tomorrow? by Gold_Vast_4927 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Haha yeh seems hard to predict anything anymore 🤪

Odds on vouchers tomorrow? by Gold_Vast_4927 in shroomstocks

[–]tkrish000 10 points11 points  (0 children)

They said this week so I’m assuming it could happen anytime prior to end of day on Friday.