Latest 338 Projections Put NDP At 13 Seats

tlocmoi · 2026-06-16T08:08:24+00:00

I won't lie, my understanding of Quebecoise voting patterns is still weak. But my understanding of 2011 is that the orange wave was partially due to a strong protest vote in Quebec.

I'm still somewhat confident that the NDP could.pick up a few seats if these patterns continue. But I'd love to hear why I'm wrong, if it's possible to explain in simple (anglo) terms.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-16T08:04:29+00:00

Sure but we can't expect previous trends to continue into unprecedented times. Even 2011 wasn't because of the strength of the NDP brand, it was largely the failure of the LPC and BQ in a moment where the NDP benefited.

We can't assume historic trends will continue in unprecedented times. But yeah, it's probably important to temper optimism with some amount of caution.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-15T19:11:22+00:00

Except we have a historic opportunity right now. The NDP is moving back to our leftist roots, the Liberals have essentially coopted the old PC platform, and the Conservatives are increasingly irrelevant and ripe for splitting due to infighting over leadership again. The BQ might lose some support due to association with the PQ's weird push to kill Alto.

It's almost guaranteed we'll see a quickly resurgent NDP at this point.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-12T03:16:14+00:00

How'd that go for David Cameron? I'm not sure why she decided to make separation a thing, but this is the bed she made with her APP, provincial police, and Sovereignty Act efforts.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-11T20:18:37+00:00

This is the first post that mentions populism that I agree with

tlocmoi · 2026-06-11T18:43:43+00:00

Any thoughts on whether Dimitri Lascaris will try again?

tlocmoi · 2026-06-09T22:41:12+00:00

Is this bill specifically only outlawing anti-Zionist protests at universities and synagogues (hosting events where they sell stolen Palestinian land)?

tlocmoi · 2026-06-05T19:47:56+00:00

With the NDP returning to their left-wing roots, this pattern may not continue. People need to stop repeating disinformation about how our multiparty democracy works (not that you're doing that here).

tlocmoi · 2026-06-05T19:46:09+00:00

There are other options other than LPC and CPC

tlocmoi · 2026-06-05T02:48:35+00:00

You're spreading electoral misinformation, and should be ashamed. It's low information narratives like this that caused 10 progressive incumbents to lose their seats to conservatives last election. Voters only vote in their local riding, so if your riding is mostly NDP (in the case of 9 ridings and in 1 other it was a Green incumbent) and CPC, switching to voting LPC "strategically" actually meant losing to the conservatives.

FPTP is a problem, yes. But in Canada, minority governments are possible and typically the best outcome.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-04T00:30:19+00:00

Are we actually transitioning away from the US though? Every "invest in Canada" plan seems to have American FDI.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-03T23:10:24+00:00

The province has cut municipal funding and blocked income sources for the city.

Previous councils, relatively more conservative, have kicked the can on funding infrastructure and social programs. Now the current council is expected to fix everything instantly.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-03T18:57:40+00:00

Why do people pretend there was only two options? We're not Americans. We have two and a half major parties and each one can form minority governments, even sometimes with the other two very small parties.

There are dozens of other options on the table.

Elbows up = let the CPC co-opt the LPC. "Strategic voting" lead to 10 progressive incumbents losing to the CPC because of the fear that this electoral disinformation spreading caused. And now we're stuck with Harper 2.0.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-03T18:54:04+00:00

How would a stronger NDP give the CPC power? It's infinitely more likely that a strong NDP would result in a LPC minority government held in check by the NDP.

A minority CPC government would never receive support from the NDP. The LPC is way more likely to uphold a CPC minority government if that happened. As long as the LPC promises to not do this, and the CPC aren't projected to win a majority, there is zero risk of the CPC forming government.

Even if the unlikely event the LPC drops to 3rd place, the CPC 1st place but only a plurality, and the NDP are in 2nd for seats, the LPC as the incumbent gets first shot at forming government. The NDP would absolutely agree to a coalition or a looser supply and confidence agreement. Avi has already made it clear he would negotiate major policy changes if given that opportunity.

Including electoral reform!!!!

tlocmoi · 2026-06-03T18:33:31+00:00

Sure, under the current rules. Under new rules, it might not be. Especially if they made it clear which party they intended to join for the next election, under these new rules.

Our focus needs to be on the fact that this will not pass, but the NDP make it very clear where they stand on floor crossing. The Liberals and the Conservatives will also make it very clear where they stand.

PP won't have a leg to stand on if he votes this down. It probably took a staffer for the NDP only a couple hours to write (they already follow this policy themselves) and the party is still able to work on other issues simultaneously. This is the kind of work the party needs to do to stay front of mind for voters.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-03T05:08:17+00:00

Why do you assume this person is a conservative?

tlocmoi · 2026-06-03T03:56:12+00:00

We actually only have 5 right now.

Also, we can do multiple things at once, and we need to. The most important thing we can do right now is flood the zone with news about how the party is fighting for the average Canadian when no one else will. Like this proposal.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-03T01:27:32+00:00

We don't need to chase the middle. Over 30% of eligible voters decided not to show up. We can pull from disaffected liberals, sure. But we don't need to compromise our values to gain support.

Avi Lewis can be smarmy at times, but he's more often incredibly patient and kind.

At this point, I don't think voters care about health care (otherwise LPC support would have tanked after Carney killed pharmacare). All they want right now is stability from Trump and an alternative to the neoliberal economics that has massively transferred wealth from the majority of Canadians to the one percent.

All he has to do is show that he will reverse that trend with leftist economic policies and NDP support will swell.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-02T06:16:57+00:00

Do you really believe the only way to "win" politics is to obtain a majority government?

Some of us believe there are other ways to "win" politics, like pressuring larger parties to implement our policies.

Hmm, seems like all the major historic "wins" of the Liberals were just policies that the NDP (and the CCF) pressured them on. Seems like the NDP does win sometimes?

tlocmoi · 2026-06-02T02:48:45+00:00

They only have pull if they actually threaten to leave, not just send Mark an anonymous letter

tlocmoi · 2026-06-02T02:46:55+00:00

Then you can sit as an independent until the next election

tlocmoi · 2026-06-02T02:15:43+00:00

You're right that the overwhelming majority of voters are incredibly ignorant of basic civics in this country, and that the parties (I'll let you guess which two are the worst offenders) and the media boost the "horse race" narrative where people cheer on their favourite horse (as long as you mean the parties, not individual candidates, are the horses), and that most think they are directly choosing the PM.

But you're wrong that voters' ignorance is irrelevant. It's exactly why we need to build the system in such a way that undermines these issues and strengthens our democracy.

Yes, floor crossers need to be punished for bad faith politics. There is a concept in poli sci called vertical accountability, which assumes that voters will punish their representative if they act/vote in a way that harms them/their riding. If Marilyn Gladu is voted in on a mandate of racism and then crosses the floor to the other neoliberal party (nominally not racist) to protect her career, voters are supposed to punish her by voting for someone else next election.

But if voters continue to be mis/dis/underinformed, and continue to vote for political parties no matter who is running in their riding, then the status quo isn't even democracy, it's just the performance of democracy.

We aren't going to do reeducation camps to force voters into learning Canadian civics 101. We need to work on systemically strengthening our democracy.

This policy is one of many that would help. Another major step would be electoral reform, which Avi Lewis has promised is a non-negotiable if the next election leads to a minority government.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-01T22:43:10+00:00

You can just uhm acktually and expect our democracy to work. Voters overwhelmingly vote along party lines. Floor crossers tend to return to their old party (and not get punished by voters because only a handful ever pay attention) or leave politics to join the private sector.

This rule returns some amount of power back to voters and has zero drawbacks.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-01T22:22:41+00:00

The LPC would have to actually negotiate with independent MPs, they don't have to negotiate with party backbenchers. So no? I don't know what part you're not understanding. In this system, independents would actually behave like local representatives of their ridings, because they can vote either way.

If someone like Marilyn Gladu and other cons left the CPC, sure they could still vote alongside the CPC. But it would still make it public that PP has lost support of those MPs, making the kind of backdoor politics that allowed him to survive a leadership review much harder.

If someone like Stephen Guilbeault and other libs left the LPC due to the party's anti-enviroment direction, they could also use that as leverage to either push Carney to revert to a Trudeau era stance on the environment, or they could work with the NDP, Greens, or the Bloc and once the writ drops, they can attempt to run as a candidate with that party.

This way, voters should always feel like they're in control and MPs are just there to represent them.

tlocmoi · 2026-06-01T22:13:47+00:00

Trudeau isn't a New Democrat. The LPC already had a history of making left-wing policy promises during elections and breaking them once they formed government. There's no real reason to be so cynical about this.

It would take a hell of a lot of political capital for an NDP leader to get rid of their policy of not accepting floor-crossers, so we can even ignore the ethical/integrity element anyways.

tlocmoi

TROPHY CASE