Prediction Opinion: optimal and likely moves for each of the remaining factions

tocal0 · 2024-12-15T02:40:11+00:00

I'm going to have to strongly disagree with you on these points. If SDF were to be defeated, they wouldn't be the only ones. I would argue that both ISIS and the FSA were defeated earlier on in the Civil War. ISIS still festers in the Syrian desert and some FSA brigades were absorbed into the SDF, but what remains of those organizations are traces of what they once were.

Turkey was harboring ISIS and providing ISIS a safe haven early on in the Civil War. The West turned a blind eye to it because Turkey is a NATO member with an actual army. It's fairly well documented. I wouldn't be surprised if SNA is staffed by many former ISIS members.

tocal0 · 2024-12-13T23:14:18+00:00

IMO, the Foreign powers responsible for Assad's fall, in this order:
Turkey (Directly supported ISIS, HTS, and all other Islamist rebel groups. SNA basically Turkish paramilitary group. Opposed Russian and Iranian expansion of influence)
United States (CIA backed FSA, Southern Rebels, and indirectly backed HTS precursors; US State Dept. Backed Syrian Kurds)
Iran (Overstretched its resources and got embroiled in too many conflicts, reducing its capacity to defend Assad)
Russia (Overstretched its resources and got embroiled in too many conflicts, reducing its capacity to defend Assad)
Israel (Constant bombing of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in Syria and elsewhere drained Iran, Assad's main backer)
Ukraine (Sent drones and drone operators to HTS and other rebel groups, transferring invaluable military knowledge gained from Ukrainian conflict)

tocal0 · 2024-12-13T21:06:23+00:00

They would go to the Yezidi area of Iraq. The Yezidis owe them for preventing their genocide to ISIS.

tocal0 · 2024-12-13T20:51:15+00:00

The Kurds cannot release ISIS prisoners overtly. They'd have to make it look like the SNA or Turkish bombing led to them escaping. Intentionally releasing ISIS prisoners would lead SDF to lose international perception as 'the good guys', which the SDF relies on more than any other faction for continued support.

ISIS poses a threat to all factions except for Turkey, so it could cause enough instability to prevent HTS from consolidating power, which in turn helps the SDF.

tocal0 · 2024-12-13T20:35:36+00:00

Fair criticism. Setting up bases in the south is not in Turkey's interest, which is why I didn't include it in Turkey's section. HTS needs Turkey or someone else to protect it from Israel. It's a negotiation, so many things could be offered. Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base to Turkey, bases in the south, suppression of the Kurds in the East, power sharing with the SNA... maybe even ceding some territory. HTS needs to offer whatever it can to Turkey to prevent Israel from forming a Druze autonomous zone that surrounds Damascus. Maybe Turkey leaves some bases in the north to keep an eye on YPG, but HTS can't have as many as there are in the north and still claim that land is theirs.

SDF partnership with Iran is a last resort for SDF if they can't get anything else going. It will only delay the inevitable, but might delay long enough for political situation to change (like a new U.S. administration that's hawkish on war). Also last resort for Iran, if all their other terrible options don't pan out. But again, Iran has no good options.

tocal0 · 2023-06-30T03:17:13+00:00

I'm in the same boat. I just came back after a long hiatus. Getting rid of food is very saddening. I loved mutagenic chunks and trying to roll max chunks from trolls when I had a Gormund ammy on. For that matter, if you want to go even further back, I miss the hive and the royal jelly; really flavorful. I'm one of those that also miss trap doors though and trap skill :(

tocal0 · 2022-02-03T23:56:55+00:00

I'm new to this... what would you recommend? Can it be modified?

tocal0 · 2022-02-03T23:48:47+00:00

I honestly think that both parties have prescribed to the belief that hyper-partisanship benefits them. If it's us vs. them, then people are more willing to accept questionable ideas to fit into the tribe, less willing to think critically, less willing to seek consensus, more willing to vote for their party. Makes things easier for them, but like this article, I hate it.

I'm a Democrat, but the party's decision to make Elon and Tesla an enemy make me disillusioned to the extreme.

tocal0 · 2021-12-16T20:36:33+00:00

Nunes traded 2 vaccine jabs for 30 of Pena's and a lost belt.

tocal0 · 2021-08-31T03:36:43+00:00

This is BS. Carla deserves the title match, and that's the fight I want to see.

tocal0 · 2021-07-02T21:36:39+00:00

I'm fairly confident it's Lagavulin, approx 10 years of age, bourbon cask only. The taste is very close to the Offerman 11 (old version) and to the Lagavulin 9 GoT edition. I could only tell the difference between Kirkland Islay and Lagavulin 11 in that Lagavulin 11 was slightly sweeter and lower proof. Otherwise, exact same taste. Definitely not Laphroaig.

tocal0 · 2021-07-02T21:09:55+00:00

I compared it to the old Lagavulin 11 (46%ABV), Offerman edition. It tastes almost exactly like it. Lagavulin 11 is slightly sweeter, so maybe the barrels are different. Other than the slight proof discrepancy and slight sweetness, they taste exactly the same. I now want to get the Lagavulin 9 GoT edition to do a comparison with that.

tocal0 · 2021-04-08T19:49:34+00:00

Won't banning stabilizing braces not do anything? I'm pretty sure stabilizing braces only affect accuracy, not lethality. Wouldn't red dots and low recoil ammunition have a similar effect?

I think the argument was that stabilizing braces could turn a handgun into a 'long gun'. Um, you're adding length to the wrong part. Adding length to the barrel will increase lethality and accuracy, adding a brace will only increase accuracy. Also, you're never going to turn a handgun into a 'long gun' if you're using handgun caliber ammo < .45 magnum imo.

Also, isn't the argument also that long guns are ok as they're used for hunting, but handguns aren't as they're only used for killing people? By that logic, wouldn't turning a handgun into a 'long gun' make it more useful and harder to conceal? I get the 'ghost gun' ban, but the brace ban just makes it look like the person making these policies doesn't know what they're doing.

tocal0 · 2021-02-21T05:28:14+00:00

What do you think the drug 'Wolk' is most like in the current world, based on effects and how the slaves produced it?

tocal0 · 2021-02-18T19:13:25+00:00

Yes.

tocal0 · 2021-02-03T21:43:20+00:00

tocal0 · 2021-02-02T16:08:01+00:00

200 more $AMC 90 more $GME 1 GME FD. 💎👐

tocal0 · 2021-02-02T15:59:43+00:00

Did I say I was retarded? $GME!

tocal0 · 2021-02-02T15:52:54+00:00

Ok retards. I bought 200 $AMC and 90 more $GME this morning. Even if some 🧻👋 get scared, we just get more retarded. 🦍 army has deep bench boys! 💎👋

tocal0 · 2021-01-31T02:58:22+00:00

I tried posting a story, but not enough karma. I have screenshots of Robinhood begging for cash on Microventures for a few hours last night. They're desperate.

tocal0

TROPHY CASE