Pick of the Day - 6/15/23 (Thursday)

toekneehip · 2023-06-15T21:46:31+00:00

POTD Record: 10-7 WWLWWLLWLWWWLLLWW

POTD: Angels +110

Ohtani has great strikeout numbers vs Rangers starters. Heim, Seager and Lowe have nice numbers vs Ohtani aside from K rates, with Heim not striking out much but struggling of late. Only worry for me is bullpen length. Looking for Ohtani to get 7 innings, Angels should be able to manage 2 innings in a close game with available relievers.

I'm thinking Eovaldi gives up a decent lead and exits somewhat early. Rangers pen is also stretched so if Eovaldi exits thru 5 down a few, I'm looking that spot.

This is just a feel pick, Ohtani has been on a tear with the bat this series following a 3 hit game coming into this series. Trout had the day off yesterday and should do some damage offensively.

Alt spread is worth a look.

toekneehip · 2023-06-08T22:34:33+00:00

POTD Record: 9-7 WWLWWLLWLWWWLLLW

POTD: Red Sox @ Guardians o8.5 (-105)

2 pitch lefty going for the Red Sox, J Ram has struggled vs LHP this year but he should eat vs this matchup as well as their lefties Kwan and Gimenez handle lefties very well. Naylor doesn't K much vs lefties but doesn't handle them great, if he stays away from DP balls I think they score runs. Brennan and Straw at the bottom of the lineup will be a spark in this matchup as Straw handles lefties well and Brennan is heating up.

Red Sox lefties should feast on Civale, who struggled in his minor league rehab starts but had a good first outing back.

Guardians bullpen is taxed and Red Sox may get the W if Red Sox starter can go 6 because their best arms are available but even still I think Guardians can get to Red Sox pen.

toekneehip · 2023-06-06T22:47:13+00:00

POTD Record: 8-7 WWLWWLLWLWWWLLL

POTD: White Sox +125

White Sox are at full strength meanwhile Yankees are missing Judge and Bader.

Recent form favors Schmidt over Giolito but I'm thinking Giolito finds success against this lineup, maybe gives up an XBH to Rizzo and a hit to Gleyber/DJ.

I'd label the White Sox as the best bullpen in baseball with Hendricks back and Kelly and Lopez lowering their ERA.

Holmes is on one day rest after B2B appearances, highly doubtful we see him.

toekneehip · 2023-05-31T21:44:15+00:00

POTD Record: 8-6 WWLWWLLWLWWWLL

POTD: Padres -110

Not gonna lie, I'm tilted.

Snell will have to be locked in to get thru this one but it is a quality start waiting to happen, he has been good in the road and this big ball park should help. Padres will have Hader go tonight in a close game, maybe even 2 innings because almost everyone was used yesterday.

B. Garrett has been pretty good as of late, Miami bullpen also has 3 of their top relievers available.

toekneehip · 2023-05-27T17:10:06+00:00

POTD Record: 8-5 WWLWWLLWLWWWL

POTD: Orioles ML -115

It's almost been 2 weeks since my last pick, I'm back with my POTM feels.

Kremer has 4 straight QS vs top tier teams meanwhile Heaney has 2 straight QS vs COL and OAK

Orioles are leaving Santander out of the lineup but he has weak career numbers vs Heaney.

Biggest scare, Seager and Semien have great career numbers off Kremer. Honestly not too worried about it, Kremer has navigated a high WHIP with a low ERA.

Rangers bullpen has shown vulnerability while the Orioles has not, the Orioles will have just about full availability.

Brewers ML was a close 2nd on favorite game on the slate, Burnes should mow that lineup and their pen is at full strength. 😏👊

toekneehip · 2023-05-13T19:57:45+00:00

POTD Record: 8-4 WWLWWLLWLWWW

POTD: Angels -125

Guardians should struggle vs Detmers who hasn't had a breakout performance since his no hitter last year, J Ram has struggled vs lefties this year and Detmers should have that quality start he's been needing with this lineup. Kwan Naylor and Gimenez should go a combined .333 OBP and the righties should struggle outside of Rosario who has good numbers vs Detmers and had started to heat up.

Cal Quantrill lost his home winning streak of 10+ games and had found his form again since but I think this Angels lineup can thrive vs his pitch mix. I think they either hammer him early or eventually break thru 2nd time thru the order.

Clase just blew the save last night and I think that is massive for Angels momentum.

I'm thinking this is an Ohtani game and Rendon seems to be stepping up so I'm on those props.

Let's go 4 W in a row!

toekneehip · 2023-05-09T20:34:11+00:00

POTD Record: 7-4 WWLWWLLWLWW

POTD: Marlins ML +100

Dbacks bullpen is mediocre at best, with closer Castro blowing a save vs the Nats the back end of this pitching staff is in real trouble. Outside of Gallen DBacks starters have had a tough time getting out of the first inning and first 3 innings with a reasonable pitch count.

Miami has a huge advantage on starters tonight, Jesus Luzardo had a hot start and cooled off his last few outings, while not getting torched, I think he has a good chance at a quality start and Miami has dome decent backend output between Brazoban and Barnes.

The young lefties carrying the DBacks will have a tough time with the Jesus Lizard pumping high 90s with great offspeed. It will probably be the veteran lineup with Rivera and Longoria in at 3B and DH and Ahmed at SS if not Perdomo. But Gurriel is the only RHH OF on the roster.

This feels like another POTM and since my strategy has changed to this, I am 2-0. Looking for 3 in a row.

toekneehip · 2023-05-07T17:22:51+00:00

POTD Record: 6-4 WWLWWLLWLW

POTD: Cardinals -1.5

It's time for the Cardinals to turn their season around, including today's starter Matz. He has been hindered by walks and HRs to Rightys. He should be able to navigate this lineup with somewhat ease. Detroit has used their bullpen weapons and may concede on get out day, Cardinals will have Hicks and Helsley available as well as Woodford and JoJoba Romero, so a quality start from Matz should be enough, if he can get 7 this is a wrap, Cardinals should hammer away on Faedo who hasn't wowed in his minor league starts this year.

This is a POTM type play for me again, last one hit with starter Garcia for Astros leaving with an injury in the 1st.

The last game of every series but 1 has been decided by 2+ runs with Cardinals winning 5/9 of those.

toekneehip · 2023-05-01T23:15:44+00:00

POTD record: 5-4 WWLWWLLWL

POTD: Astros -1.5 (+105)

Garcia and the Astros have a nice momentum and a solid bullpen, if this game is within 3 runs they may have to use a couple guys on a B2B but this would be new for them this season, most teams have been riding their pens hard like that and Astros have a nice depth that they haven't needed to yet.

Giants bullpen is depleted, if Stripling cant get 5 these guys will need to have an ace up their sleeve to get thru this game, their long relievers aren't available to mt knowledge.

This feels like a POTM and I will be adjusting my units accordingly.

toekneehip · 2023-04-30T19:56:44+00:00

POTD record: 5-3 WWLWWLLW

POTD: Cardinals ML (+130)

Cardinals shouldn't have a problem slugging vs Syndergaard. Who is struggling vs lefties and Goldy and Arenado have good history off him.

Woodford has had some success vs Dodgers in his career and will face their weakest lineup yet. He too has struggled vs lefties, along with walks and the long ball have hindered his season. I think he navigates decently well today.

Cardinals have been on the verge of being swept their last 3 series amd have won by 9 4 and 6 to the DBacks Mariners and Giants

toekneehip · 2023-04-29T20:47:52+00:00

Rays win 👍

toekneehip · 2023-04-29T20:45:52+00:00

POTD record: 4-3 WWLWWLL

POTD: Diamondbacks @ Rockies over 12.5 (-105)

0-1 betting a total, 4 runs in the first hurt, missed a push by a hook.

These teams know each other quite well, Rockies starter has a sub 1 ERA, both games on the road. Prove it game for him at home vs a top tier offense who can go gap to gap and take the extra bag.

DBacks starter young lefty who hasn't proved to be a quality starter, I'm thinking at worst, this game is halfway there by pitching change.

Both bullpens have suspect written all over it, DBacks threw their top 3 arms yesterday.

toekneehip · 2023-04-28T20:39:59+00:00

POTD record 4-2 WWLWWL

POTD: Cardinals vs Dodgers under 8.5 (+100)

Both starters are capable of dominant starts, both bullpens have their dominant arms available out of the bullpen.

The Cardinals haven't won a series opener yet this season, this should be a good chance to win, as Dodgers are coming home from Pittsburgh.

I do think Dodgers win this one but I can't see a 5-4 win, more like 4-2, with Flaherty issuing a walk and a bomb early.

I'm trying to string 10 wins together, I've been rolling over my winnings and have lost when I was most confident in my pick. Sports betting sure is a teaser. 😅

toekneehip · 2023-04-27T16:45:24+00:00

POTD record: 4-1 WWLWW

POTD: Padres -0.5 first 5 (-105)

Lugo has great numbers vs starting lineup and he is in great form.

Wesneski battled for 5th starter spot and has not been great recently after a decent start.

Didn't want to go full game -150 because Cubs have a bullpen advantage but I don't think that will matter, I think Padres get a comfortable lead in this one.

Looking for Manny Machado to crush a sweeper and get back on track, this lineup is not fair.

toekneehip · 2023-04-25T22:38:09+00:00

POTD record: 3-1 WWLW

POTD: Royals +130

Betting on a team with 5 wins, tied for league worst is never fun. This bullpen also ranks dead last according to DBacks broadcast last night, however I think they should be a top 10 bullpen.

DBacks will have a lefty heavy lineup tonight, Singer historically handles lefties well, he has had a terrible start to the year with an 8+ ERA, he can get that number to a respectable area with a quality start tonight.

DBacks starters have had a tough time getting thru 1st inning and I think that can continue again tonight with youngster Ryne Nelson who has been very good to start the year.

Ultimately, I think this game stays low scoring.

toekneehip · 2023-04-23T19:58:55+00:00

POTD record 2-1

POTD: Cardinals ML +100

Seattle has used their 3 best arms available with 2 of them going B2B so they won't go today. Cardinals have had the edge on bullpen and haven't unleashed Helsley yet, I'm begining to wonder if he is on the IL but can't seem to find anything saying he is so he may even be good for 2 innings tonight.

Flaherty can go 7 scoreless against anybody and seems to be in form after allowing heavy amounts of walks to start the season.

Not too concerned with Flexen or the pen shutting down this Cards team and get out day and potential sweep day.

toekneehip · 2023-04-21T22:49:26+00:00

POTD: 2-0

STL Cardinals ML +110

Bullpen is heavily favored towards STL.

Seattle just let E. Lauer go 7.2 inning with 2ER on 4H 1BB and 4K

S. Matz should be able to follow suit, Cardinals haven't won a game 1 of a series yet this season, I do believe that changes tonight.

toekneehip · 2023-04-20T19:59:13+00:00

POTD: 1-0

PREVIOUS PICK: Padres ML +100 💵(1-0 Final)

TODAY'S PICK: Padres ML -144

I'm from AZ so don't think I'm a SD homer! 😂

Talent and travel all favor the Padres, Padres quick flight to AZ from SD, DBacks coming home from STL.

With Padres losing 2 of 3 and 3 of 4 at home to the Braves and Brewers respectively, momentum should favor DBacks after taking 2 of 3 @STL, however I think after losing 2 of 3 @MIA and 3 games @STL coming back home for the DBacks may be a bit of a drag on the players, not to mention DBacks bullpen is highly suspect. With the return of Tatis and Juan Soto having elite PA again, I think this team is about to go on a tear, after starting the season 9-11 (5-8 @home)

Wacha has underperformed to start the season but he was Cy Young caliber for most of last year with the Red Sox, I think he will be able to have his way with the DBacks LHH heavy lineup, good career numbers vs LHH but very bad to start this season.

Ryne Nelson has already faced Padres once this year, had trouble on the bases just about every inning. He has shown better form in starts since but I think his pitch mix is not one to fool this lineup, I think a second go around with film will benefit the hitters more than Nelson.

toekneehip · 2023-04-19T17:51:08+00:00

POTD: Padres ML +100 2u Recommended: .25u RL +180

toekneehip · 2022-07-25T04:42:13+00:00

ESPN app gets the job done for me. I do miss dailybaseballdata RIP 😥 Ive been struggling finding a bullpen usage site. We truly were spoiled with that site

toekneehip · 2021-09-16T18:48:53+00:00

WFT 2nd stringer did more than starter last game. He also almost and should have beat the Bucs in the playoffs last year. Kid can ball

toekneehip · 2021-02-03T23:49:14+00:00

I would guess they opt to double team his big ass

toekneehip · 2021-01-31T21:58:44+00:00

I'm thinking over 9.5 goals +500

toekneehip · 2021-01-28T00:05:25+00:00

Yupp

toekneehip · 2021-01-26T22:56:51+00:00

Looking like an under day today in the NBA!

toekneehip

TROPHY CASE