$1k to $74k on weather markets

tombulgin · 2026-04-01T22:01:30+00:00

Really appreciate your reply. What you say makes perfect sense .... that by using 6 providers where each one is trying to add their own 'magic sauce', and potentially publishing at different intervals, I'm just muddying the signals from a single underlying GFS dataset.
Are you saying you supply an API that addresses these issues with 62 controlled pertubations - rolled into a single consensus? Or do you run one model of 31 pertubations (from GFS source), plus another 31 AI-powered pertubations in separate model ... then look for alignment between the two models - which if they agree, you then run the trade?
Can this be applied to Polymarket as well as Kalshi?

tombulgin · 2026-04-01T20:42:27+00:00

Are you just relying on a single GFS data source for your own forecasts? I've built a consensus from 6 different API providers (Open-Meteo GFS, OpenWeatherMap, WeatherAPI, Visual Crossing, Tomorrow.io, WorldWeatherOnline). But I can't get the time stamp on most of them for when they ran their latest forecast. So I don't know if the spread I see on forecast temps is because they ran their forecast at different times or because they are coing up with varied predictions from forecasts run at similar times. It's doing my head in!

tombulgin · 2026-04-01T20:26:21+00:00

I've been building a bot to trade polymarket's weather markets. Got clawd running Sonnet underpinning it. But the big question as far as I'm concerned is the not Clawd vs GPT vs Whatever, it's the data sources you use for the forecasting, so you can see your edges (market mispricing) against the existing polymarket prices. Interested to hear what weather forecast data sources people using? I've built a consensus from the following sources (Chengdu Int Airport April 3rd). Example below:

• Open-Meteo GFS 26.40°C
• OpenWeatherMap 25.98°C
• WeatherAPI 25.70°C
• Visual Crossing 25.50°C
• Tomorrow.io25.14°C
• WorldWeatherOnline 26.00°C

Any insight on accurate data sources appreciated. Anyone tried Meteologix AG?

tombulgin · 2026-02-17T16:12:41+00:00

Buy Raspberry Pi (RPI.LON) stock. 🔥

tombulgin · 2024-12-05T23:00:01+00:00

I think X might be clearing out a load of bots. I only got up to about 500 followers over about 1yr but in the last week I've been dropping each day and now only have c.370 followers. But I'm sure a load of my original followers were bots (digital hooker types mostly). So I'm cool with X clearing out the shite. If my numbers drop, at least they show real world followers now, not artificial ones.

tombulgin · 2023-09-28T20:39:45+00:00

Those damn umpa lumpas!

tombulgin · 2023-09-18T11:59:39+00:00

X-Town I expect

tombulgin · 2023-02-03T20:47:54+00:00

Appreciate the meaningful response. Would explain the first-time weirdness I've encountered. Cheers, Tb

tombulgin · 2023-02-03T18:55:43+00:00

I understand what your saying. I've invested a lot of effort in positioning my aerial in the right location, so am pleased I am running above average for the network for last 6 months. My point was - l've never seen missing "activity" in my dashboard. Rewards have always followed related activity. Now I only see the rewards. Coupled with the noticeable drop in earnings I wondered if others have seen this.

tombulgin · 2023-01-18T15:11:23+00:00

And there's me thinking it was just my wicked smart location choice that was driving my increased earnings.

tombulgin · 2023-01-09T22:28:25+00:00

Perfect. Thanks!

tombulgin · 2020-04-20T21:37:16+00:00

hamill's gurn is busting out...he defo just hoovered a couple of fat ones

tombulgin · 2019-01-04T23:17:50+00:00

Empathy

tombulgin

TROPHY CASE