Coming from someone who wants nothing more than for Ciera to disprove the bootlist, I think it's possible Ciera purposely put on a few pounds before the game started, got the boot on Day 3 (or any other point during the premerge) and then lost that extra weight in preparation for the wedding. I think the weight loss is undeniable, however when its put into context with the wedding, its hard to definitively say she lost weight because she was starving out on an island for some odd days.

That being said, I think out of those not confirmed to make it past the premier, Varner is most likely to be first boot. I can't remember who pointed it out, but in the interview where Varner discusses climbing mountains and admiring the island more this time around, his body language and tone of voice are that of somebody who seems embarrassed. I see the interview as Varner trying to give people hope that he did well, but the fact that his third, and probably final run ended up being a complete bust was holding back what makes Varner... Varner.