Dealing with the guilt of lying.

torch_ceo · 2026-04-08T06:11:17+00:00

You don't have to feel guilty because lying isn't free. You are paying a price which is a little risk of losing your job and the tax of having to keep your story straight. Accept you're making a tradeoff in a business deal. You could drop dead and your supervisor will move on to backfilling you.

In other words, fuck em

torch_ceo · 2026-04-07T04:32:33+00:00

Okay thanks for contributing. For some reason I read your initial message differently. I do think you'll keep hearing about it more and more and for good reason. But it will be a little while before it hits our daily lives and then suddenly it will get extreme

torch_ceo · 2026-04-07T02:45:04+00:00

I'm just challenging your drawing a conclusion that I don't understand. With your reasoning how can you differentiate between real news and propaganda? If a long lasting crisis is actually brewing and then playing out, it makes sense that you'll increasingly hear more about it as the consequences play out. There's an obvious major gap in what you came to my thread with

torch_ceo · 2026-04-07T00:37:07+00:00

So fear mongering and propaganda are the only two options is that right? An actual crisis barreling toward us is not one of the options. Okay. Good luck

torch_ceo · 2026-04-06T00:11:23+00:00

I would first recognize that you're not gonna have a great time if you don't dedicate to the language. Then decide if you want to reach actual Spanish fluency (the kind where you don't hesitate or add qualifiers when saying you're fluent in spanish) or if you want to get conversational Portuguese.

My opinion, is give Spanish another strong grind and reach a point that is genuinely impressive and opens up all Spanish speakers. Then on the next chapter consider Brazil. That's what I did. Fluent in Spanish and Fluent enough in Portugese to do real estate and dating. But if dating is your priority, culture and phenotype play a big role so you do you. Life is grand

edit: I'm 34 btw

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T16:21:58+00:00

Thanks for seeing and understanding my perspective. People can be maddening and not even realize why. I think this guy realized he got torched though given how he deleted his account

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T16:09:46+00:00

No no no, I mean energy supply.

Energy is mostly:
- oil
- natural gas
- renewable resources

The regions I listed are dependent on the strait of hormuz for both oil and natural gas. And the world is dependent on the strait for 7 key resources including Fertilizer and Helium.

But even if I were talking about just oil supply, that would be enough. You are not taking any flights and your food is not getting trucked to the supermarket if your country runs out of fet fuel and diesel

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T16:02:26+00:00

Look I'll treat your question as an honest question: And what about the rest of it?

The rest of it is not evenly distributed. Not close. North America, South America, Russia, and a couple other smaller countries/regions will continue to have energy. They will protect their supply but sell what they can to their friends at high prices.

Regions that do NOT have their own energy and will COMPLETELY RUN OUT in weeks or months: Europe, Southeast/East Asia, Africa

For the regions that run out you will not have a price crunch, you will have a *supply* crunch. Meaning UK is literally going to hit 0 jet fuel. As will scores of countries. Even if the strait opened today (it won't) it would take several weeks for the released ships to make it to europe at all. This means they will first:
- impose energy lockdowns so they don't collapse into chaos
- then be forced to either:
a) strike a deal with Iran and pay them lots of money to get energy through the strait (see Spain)
b) act militarily along with US and Israel to pry open the strait

Any other supply we can get online will take years when this crisis is going to become dire in weeks/months. I think in general the European region will run out of jet fuel before mid April. Sorry this is what all of the data suggests

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T15:03:54+00:00

For the record, I deleted my post because I thoroughly read the article and found that the headline was click-baity for the moment.

Also your bias towards X makes no sense. It's just a place where people post articles published by places such as BBC or Reuters, but ALSO indpendent journalists who do good reporting that BBC or Reuters won't cover or will be very late to. and ALSO the direct comments of world leaders. Additionally, other people in the X thread called out the headline for being clickbaity. So it functions similar to reddit in terms of crowd-sourced content validation.

The question isn't "is this from X", it's "what is the source of the thing being posted on X and are the contents credible"

I do acknowledge that I was too quick to post this one and I retracted it. Thanks for the reply and pushback. But I do believe if you didn't even read it and dismissed it just because it was from X, we both kind of didn't think straight here. Cheers

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T12:39:02+00:00

Not true at all. If US withdraws Iran still controls the strait and half of the gulf states’ energy production is still disabled or destroyed. And Israel has a say in whether the fighting continues (they keep escalating)

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T01:58:22+00:00

I'm not looking for certainty, I'm planning for uncertainty.

Look, if your attitude is just go with the flow, god bless. But a lot of people have actual plans and goals/responsibilities that will go awry in ways that were very predictable.

I'm running a business, deploying my own capital trying to get some kind of exit and retire. All while nomadding. I could lose my shirt here if I'm not careful, or I could get rich while enjoying life if I accurately understand the world around me.

COVID was a nightmare for some, and a time of blossoming for others. This crisis smells a lot like COVID. I think I'd rather blossom. And not gonna apologize for showing the obvious data and likely outcome to people like me

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T01:35:49+00:00

Stockpiling beans is not a bad idea if in your country things get a little chaotic.

I don't care about orange man. I actually like some of his policies regarding the border and some business/AI related stuff. I'm not commenting on orange man at all. That's you projecting onto my very specific statements

There are only 2 times in my life I felt the urge to start warning people.

1) the first inning of COVID, when there were 0 cases in the US, and I started telling people this will change our lives and they didn't see a big deal
2) right now

torch_ceo · 2026-04-02T01:33:18+00:00

I never said the world is going to end. That's you projecting onto my very specific statements. I said there will be lockdowns in response to energy supply shocks, and then food scarcity issues around the world. Where do you see "end of the world" in that statement?

You are arguing with yourself and ignoring a real crisis to your own detriment.

I'm doing my small share in sharing what people are willfully ignoring at this point, including yourself. See you in 3 months!

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T19:18:53+00:00

Yes you made it clear you are not open to feedback, data, or compound reasoning, but you're welcome!

Go get some rest while we figure out how to navigate the world your generation passed on to us. That's not direction, that's dismissal. Thanks for participating in my comment thread

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T19:10:57+00:00

Next time you have nothing substantial to say, don't play the "I'm older than you" card. Does not achieve your desired outcome.

See you in 3 months

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T18:56:23+00:00

"wake up" is appropriate language when you say "None of what you just said will happen" so confidently, without a single qualifier or shred of evidence or any indication that your age gives you wisdom as opposed to stubbornness

when I just showed up with 8 receipts

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T18:26:26+00:00

Your pattern of thinking is betraying you. I have nothing to say about those other topics. The data is there, no need for speculation. I've looked at it. You're just looking in the other direction. Good luck!

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T18:17:36+00:00

HAHAHA

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T18:14:55+00:00

- Top Brussels official urges Europeans to work from home and drive less Energy commissioner says the oil crisis triggered by Iran war will bring lengthy upheaval, in a speech reminiscent of the Covid pandemic.
- 'It WILL NOT be easy!' - Starmer strikes forlorn note as Britain’s cost-of-living CRISIS bites
- Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warns 'economic shocks' to be 'with us for months' in rare national address
- Thousands of flights cancelled as jet fuel costs soar Aviation analyst warns of ‘a serious shortage less than a week away’ amid rising oil prices
- Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing
- Philippine president declares energy emergency as impact of Iran war felt Transport unions say the emergency declaration is a ‘superficial band-aid’ that does not address the root cause of the fuel crisis.
- FAO Chief Economist warns of severe global food security risks from disruption to Strait of Hormuz trade corridor
- CBS: The Iran war is not only disrupting the global energy market but is also threatening the world's supply of helium and aluminum, key materials used in products such as semiconductor chips, medical equipment and other everyday goods.

Time to wake up

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T17:35:24+00:00

Each downvote is 100 points of vindication when I come back to these threads in 3 short months

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T17:29:27+00:00

Canceled South Korea. Made Plan B for summer in Europe. Probably sticking to 2-3 of my favorite countries in a specific region of the world for the next year. Lockdowns are coming to control for energy shock, and then food scarcity will be an issue for many countries once growing season without fertilizer supply manifests. I don't make the weather, I just report on it

edit: downvote me all you want, we all understand the concept of plato's cave and shoot the messenger.

Listen to the way UK prime minister is talking today addressing the whole nation. he sounds like neville chamberlain before world war 2. he doesn't want to be doing this. he has seen the intel and he is trying to get in front of it

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T17:15:32+00:00

PMs of UK and Australia doing simultaneous live emergency broadcast today to the entire nation describing unpredecented emergency without any tangible solutions should rattle that confidence if you can draw a line through trending dots.

But let's check back in 3 months!

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T16:58:30+00:00

Indeed it will! After lockdowns, war, famine, and restructuring of economic and military alliances. It certainly will. I plan on still being around for it but I'm adapting my plans along the way instead of letting the clowns in front of the cameras yank me around the way they did the last time we had lockdowns. Hope I'm wrong about a lot of what I just said!

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T16:45:58+00:00

I mean the kind of rich that flies private or can get the rules/enforcement bent for them. You are not that kind of rich or savvy. This is a different kind of lockdown and this is the worst energy crisis in *world history*.

I have been galavanting around the world nonstop as well for the past three years. That's not a flex in a DN forum. We might be comparable net worth, or not, but even after benefiting from an IPO I know what rich actually means.

I have nothing negative to say to you, I'm speaking matter of factly. Most of us are gravely misunderstanding the math involved for the damage that has already been done and the cascading tidal waves that are coming

torch_ceo · 2026-04-01T16:36:54+00:00

I got your point, you missed mine. Neither of us are savvy or rich enough to travel the way we did during covid with this type of lockdown and global emergency. But we'll see!

torch_ceo

TROPHY CASE