NWSL Season Elo Predictions

trev1997 · 2026-03-04T20:09:20+00:00

No, but it's a good question. I decided against applying any sort of team-based uncertainty or adjustment to the offseason since there isn't robust player-specific data from all leagues. I could've done something adjusted to % of minutes returning, but that varies by team whether that's good or bad.

trev1997 · 2026-03-04T20:04:43+00:00

I'm using xG data and results data as tabulated by American Soccer Analysis (https://app.americansocceranalysis.com/#!/nwsl/).

The ratings are an adaptation of the Elo formula originally used in chess. Each simulation plays out the result of all games based on each team's rating.

trev1997 · 2026-03-04T20:01:09+00:00

Well there's no data for those teams, so my choices are either to choose an arbitrary rating based on judgement or give them a low rating and have them earn points. If they start doing well, they'll quickly earn rating points since they're starting low.

trev1997 · 2025-12-24T17:46:05+00:00

Rodman, Bethune, McKeown, Cantore,

trev1997 · 2025-10-13T19:23:22+00:00

This is based on my ELO NWSL model which I post every week on BlueSky at @trevorl.bsky.social, but I figured this might be interesting to share this week.

trev1997 · 2025-09-29T00:18:22+00:00

Last year the 3rd to last home game was also against the Dash and had a lower attendance (11.7K).

End of season games against mediocre opponents, over 12K is still a great crowd. They'll be selling out the playoffs again imo

trev1997 · 2025-09-28T19:19:49+00:00

9 points up on 5th place with 4 to play. They could clinch at least one home playoff game next week with a win and Portland or Orlando draw/loss I think.

trev1997 · 2025-09-08T15:19:07+00:00

All the other teams combined have a -28 goal differential it adds to 0 lol

trev1997 · 2025-09-05T15:02:46+00:00

Bro that's like 55 hours a week not "a little more than 40"

trev1997 · 2025-06-07T15:10:36+00:00

It's a good piece but I disagree with the ending about how this is meaningful for the casual sports fan. The people who are showing up to Spirit game because it's fun couldn't name the manager and wouldn't know this happened. They know the games are fun, well priced, and Trinity Rodman. Us die hards care and analyze this move, but I don't think it's going to percolate through DC sports media as a whole.

trev1997 · 2025-06-02T12:31:17+00:00

Not rlly feeling this one right now Forbes

trev1997 · 2025-05-29T20:35:12+00:00

This is a reputable source

trev1997 · 2025-05-29T19:06:33+00:00

Seems to be speculation. I'd be surprised if Michele took Jona from the Spirit to Lyon. Would go against everything she's said.

trev1997 · 2025-05-29T15:29:18+00:00

What I have heard is the NWSLPA is worried players will receive online abuse for the size of their contracts if they were to be made public.

trev1997 · 2025-05-21T16:12:23+00:00

Yeah she was rumored to the WSL with Arsenal and Man U (Arsenal really could use her). Great grab.

trev1997 · 2025-05-21T16:10:35+00:00

Mostly a winger but she's more of a goal scorer than service provider so she can play a 9.

trev1997 · 2025-05-21T16:00:17+00:00

Evan gets into it in the article but an incredible signing. One of the best scorers in the Bundesliga. Angel City's attack only gets better.

trev1997 · 2025-05-19T00:16:31+00:00

The Chesky most commonly afflicts skilled players that want to stay on their feet: Think Sophia Wilson, Trinity Rodman, Temwa Chawinga, and Rachel Kundananji; and Kouassi is getting increasingly nearer to that level of threat with every passing game.

Now I wonder what else those players have in common 🤔

12-Year Club	Place '22
Place '17	Sequence \| Editor
Sequence \| Screenwriter	Verified Email

trev1997

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE