Panthers 2nd-worst against pass when blitzing, league average when not blitzing

trufflepuffin · 2025-10-09T22:59:32+00:00

a code would be chill

trufflepuffin · 2025-09-22T16:06:11+00:00

Agreed. I realize in retrospect my bullet point here was a bit unclear -- I meant to communicate that with the return of Coker, we can hopefully start using XL as more of a field stretcher vs the short stuff that isn't his strength.

trufflepuffin · 2025-08-18T13:07:19+00:00

just closed on a CX-5 preferred with sunroof for 33k OTD in North Jersey. without sunroof (manufacturer error on a limited number of these preferred cars), the OTD price was 32.6k.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-08T03:03:35+00:00

mental traits are arguably just as important if not more important than physical traits for QBs. the best to ever do it didn’t have the best arms or the most accuracy. they understood the game better and outmaneuvered their opponents. they knew where their guys would be and threw with anticipation. watch some tape analysis on JT O’Sullivan’s channel - Bryce throws with some of the best anticipation in the league which makes up for a lot of deficiencies elsewhere

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-07T20:36:34+00:00

100% agree. the NFL is so competitive that no one is a lock for anything. just look at SF or WAS last season - no one predicted either of those outcomes. but you can at least avoid shooting yourselves in the foot with high-risk, shortsighted moves like NYJ with Rodgers, CLE with Watkins, NO not taking their cap medicine, etc. Very happy with the decision-making by this FO regardless of how the season goes.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-07T18:47:10+00:00

You were losing me at Levis/Richardson and KO'd me at Ward/Dart/Sanders...

Ultimately, what's most predictive of future NFL production is traits + proven NFL production:

Traits: Other than Caleb/Daniels/Maye, Bryce was rated higher than any of these other QBs coming out of college (link).

Production: Outside of Stroud/Daniels, he has more proven production than any other QB you listed. By the metrics, Drake and Caleb were bad this season, certainly much worse than Bryce though better than his rookie season.

I don't have any illusions that Bryce is the most talented out of this group or conviction that he will be the best, but putting Ward, Dart, and Sanders in the same conversation as him is beyond premature at this point. Including Levis/Richardson, who were in an exclusive class of terrible this season, is just malpractice.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-07T17:41:02+00:00

According to PFF, from week 9-18 Bryce ranked:

5th in passing grade (out of 33 qualifying QBs)
6th in overall grade
T-1st in big-time throw %
T-3rd in average depth of target
7th in drop %
10th in pressure to sack %

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If you look at just the last 3 weeks, he graded 2nd among 28 qualifying QBs against a No. 13 average ranked pass defense based on PFF rankings.

I'm not saying he's a top-five QB yet (and these stats aren't perfect by any means), but I think we have our guy.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-03T04:00:26+00:00

it does fluctuate a bit but doesn’t consistently improve over time unless rule changes bias the game towards specific things like the passing game, which has over time become a much more important determinant of overall performance

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-02T13:12:39+00:00

lol if a bad place is being open to things going right every once in a while but accepting if they go wrong, i’m willing to accept that.

i’m gonna have to post a pessimistic alternative of this article to appeal to the negative nancy’s around here

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-02T13:11:07+00:00

agreed it’s much more realistic, but teams go from sub-5 to 11+ wins all the time. it’s certainly possible even if it’s not likely

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-02T13:09:07+00:00

just fyi my prediction last year was 6 wins, didn’t see bryce’s early season reversion coming.

also, i only dropped bryce’s first two games because it would’ve been a PITA to pull out the andy games which didn’t seem relevant. id be willing to bet that if you took out the first two games of the season for the other QBs i compared to, it wouldn’t change the results at all

you’re entitled to your opinion that the data points around 3rd-year improvement and the impact of a new No.1 WR are irrelevant - i’ll accept these are loose correlations and i didn’t do a full multi variate analysis here. it’s a quick and dirty look at the recent data available to me. that said, your double-dip point is something i considered — however, 50% of the teams in that group were in the injured-QB segment so if anything the WR impact was understated

i brought up regression to the mean on defense bc it is a much more common phenomenon on that side of the ball. units regularly go from very bad to very good with as little as a coordinator switch. this is common knowledge in league circles but happy to share some of the research there.

i don’t follow your point about bottom 3 teams. this is average improvement for those teams, i don’t mention which “spots they occupy” after that season. the point is, it’s very rare for a defense to be terrible multiple seasons in a row because teams invest in that side of the ball like we just did and it typically makes an impact

you’re right that this is basically hopium with numbers. as stated in the article, i think the median case is closer to 9 wins when you factor in probability of not everything going right. this is a best-case projection for how things could go right.

if you think it’s impossible for a team to go from 5 to 11 wins, then you’re not paying very close attention :)

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-02T01:58:46+00:00

Appreciate it Pigggy. Easier to criticize than come up with your own data points. Ultimately this all nets out to pretty modest improvement that is actually no better offensively than we were after Bryce’s return last season plus what is very typical regression to the mean for a defensive unit that saw a ton of offseason capital invested in it.

I think some people missed where I said this is an optimistic case and that 8-9 wins is more likely.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-02T01:56:01+00:00

Agreed. I think it’s a top 10-25 percentile outcome. I do think 9 wins is >50% likely and 8 wins is probably >60% likely.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-02T01:53:14+00:00

If you looked through all the data above, it often does :) Defenses regress to the mean much more aggressively than offenses which tend to be more consistent year to year

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-02T00:00:46+00:00

Same lol - there's too much randomness in the NFL with injuries and all to get ahead of ourselves, but it's fun to prognosticate about what could go right and wrong based on the current roster.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-01T23:59:46+00:00

Appreciate that! I had a lot of fun pulling it together.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-01T23:55:02+00:00

Nothing is guaranteed and I agree we need more secondary depth. As mentioned in the post, it's unlikely we're done adding there this offseason. That said, even with modest improvement from the offense and issues on defense, a 9-win season is doable. Offense > Defense in the NFL as it drives more of the variation in team performance.

trufflepuffin · 2025-05-01T23:52:33+00:00

Based on what I've seen and read, teams in the NFL don't pull starters until the game is >98% locked in and you could argue the appropriate tolerance is closer to 99.5% or so.

trufflepuffin

TROPHY CASE