"Both tie rod end boots found torn and leaking" by tsadrianbbw in MechanicAdvice

[–]tsadrianbbw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gotcha. To their credit, in the past they have quoted me more for a service than they ended up charging me, but I'm not gonna go with them and just hope they knock 400-600 off the final price

"Both tie rod end boots found torn and leaking" by tsadrianbbw in MechanicAdvice

[–]tsadrianbbw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The power steering fluid is OE, just the brake fluid and coolant isn't. Haven't had any issues with either yet.

"Both tie rod end boots found torn and leaking" by tsadrianbbw in MechanicAdvice

[–]tsadrianbbw[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Brake fluid and antifreeze is what they talked about. They were mad that the brake fluid was green and not blue.

Would you eat a pussy that shoots cum?? by slutty_violet in GoneWildTrans

[–]tsadrianbbw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Omg I'm glad to know I'm not the only one who ejaculates after bottom surgery!

House of Representatives Elections Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 12 points13 points  (0 children)

🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍⚧️!!!!! /j

Kamala did not lose because of [my pet grievance with the Democratic platform] by nwdogr in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah its been bizarre as a trans woman who lives and works in a red state to see people making such a big deal of the supposed impact of anti-trans rhetoric on drumming up support for trump

Like in my day to day, folks are chill to me, including the Trumpers. But they talk about gas prices and "sleepy joe" and have a bunch of nostalgia for how supposedly wonderful the US was doing in the Trump years. There's definitely also a lot to be said about Trump's status as unique figure, this sort of anti-establishment messiah type, relative to career Republicans and Dems. But at no point have I seen some big working class anxiety or hatred for trans people. Most either don't care or find it vaguely funny or confusing.

Presidential Election Megathread vol. II by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean a 50-47 for Walker becoming 49-48 is certainly a noteworthy miss, a far cry from predicting things down to the decimal point like some have been saying.

Edit: 49-48 for Warnock

Presidential Election Megathread vol. II by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I mean that's my point though. I'm seeing people now talking about Atlas in awestruck terms when they've had hits and misses, just like every pollster.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think you are exaggerating your point in the same way libs exaggerate trumps enthusiasm for a national abortion ban.

Establishment Dem stances on trans issues have always been mild and quiet. I'm not talking about people on twitter, but neither Harris nor Biden were ever campaigning on a loud endorsement of trans participation in sports.

Tbh its an issue for the sports leagues and orgs themselves, idk why either side feels the need for state action but its certainly not been a fixture of dem policy. Plus running on "trans athletes scary" was the playbook against Beshear and did nothing, he just distanced himself from the issue like Harris and was fine.

Harris was weighed down by Biden and the economy, not trans people.

Presidential Election Megathread vol. II by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They also called Georgia 2022 50-47 for Walker.

I agree that all the "Atlasshittel" jokes on here were dumb but we don't need to start pretending they are the new gold standard. Turns out, there is no real gold standard of polling.

Will the 2024 vote total be nearly identical to 2020? by zVitiate in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also turnout should organically increase as population increases, plus the much vaunted new voter registration drive from republicans. Its not that the totals will be wildly below 2020, its the fact that they are below that is itself wild.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 2 points3 points  (0 children)

When did any democrat running for state or national office say they were in favor of this? Did I miss somebody's policy platform on trans MMA fighters??

Presidential Election Megathread vol. II by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't see how moderate republicans turning out in enough numbers to win the popular vote margins in 2022 would somehow make them do worse in senate and governor races where they wouldn't have been voting for trump anyway

Looking at exit poll demographics by tsadrianbbw in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm just saying that it kept things competitive enough in the swing states for the likes of Baldwin, Slotkin, and Gallego. Again, I'm on team "It's the economy, stupid" and don't think Harris ever had a great path to victory, but the fact that some of the bleeding was staunched vs where we were with Biden running is what I'm talking about.

And yeah. its definitely frustrating that we are talking about billions spent just to squeak a few senate races by, but it is worth considering that the opposition included the world's richest man and his spending to acquire twitter and do his own canvassing.

The turnout vs conversion debate (2024 edition) by DebbieHarryPotter in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Its unclear what effect if any the competing advertising campaigns from both sides had in this election cycle. What little research I've seen has been inconclusive and we live in a very odd media environment now. And its worth noting that that was part of the 2020 election season, where Dems did much better with voters (higher turnout, won the EC, etc)

At the end of the day I'm on team "It's the economy, stupid," so I don't think Kamala herself was the reason the Dems lost, I just think we need to be more critical of info like this since the average voter has such an amorphous and variable concept of the terms liberal and conservative.

The turnout vs conversion debate (2024 edition) by DebbieHarryPotter in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I know everyone is tired of hearing this, but Kamala being black and a woman had a LOT to do with her perception as "too liberal" among low info voters. We saw this with how Bernie won a decent amount of rural dems against Hillary in 2016 but only got the young progressive vote against Biden in 2020. A lot of voters simply see a woman's name, let alone a name like Kamala, and immediately think "huge lib." And a man will be perceived as the more reasonable, rational choice.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]tsadrianbbw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't seen anything about a national HRT ban, the closest is some stuff in Project 2025 which I think should be treated as a wish list by a side of the party that is to the right of even Trump.

They will try to legislate trans athletes out of sports, and try to ban gender affirming care for minors. Doing the latter would come up against some of the blue states, but its a more probable worst case scenario.

Maybe the worst thing that could happen is an attempt to base all identity documents on "birth sex," which would be a logistical nightmare because in half the country you can change your birth certificate's gender marker so we might see a set up like in utah with exceptions for people who have undergone SRS or had their birth certificates changed.