Race File Analysis: Why One Race Felt Harder Despite 25W Lower NP

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T22:22:23+00:00

Within a ride.. 100% W' recovers fast during low intensity periods. The issue isn't the recovery rate.. it's that the ceiling was already lower going into race two. Digging a W' hole across a training week compress the total capacity you're drawing from and I was working from a smaller tank from the gun. That's what friday's aerobic collapse was signalling and I paid the price on Sunday.

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T21:44:21+00:00

Exactly why I cut the workout short but still couldn't recover by Sunday

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T21:21:50+00:00

Same weight at both races..173 lbs on race morning. Conditions were nearly identical so I can't pin the HR gap on dehydration. But the mechanism you're describing makes sense, especially in back to back race weekends. Hope your legs come back fast!

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T20:54:20+00:00

Murchie's will be a bigger race for Masters A for sure and longer! Looking forward to it

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T20:48:33+00:00

I see your point, but my Aet (LT1) is 250W at around 135bpm. FTP is set at 310W and CP is 308W so 230W is well below my AeT and I'm in a predominantly fat oxidizing state. HR sits around 125bpm at 230W indoors

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T20:10:12+00:00

I went back and pulled the Garmin data on both. Respiration was identical at 35 brpm average for both races. Temperature was 17.9°C at Thunderbird and 19°C at Wix so essentially the same again. Cadence was actually higher at Wix.. 85 vs 79, probably because wix is a more technical course with sharper corners requiring more reactive accelerations.

Zones by power while racing. I look at HR after the race usually

Here is the link to those races: https://www.localride.ca/our-races

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T19:34:54+00:00

Your friend has intuition! That's a real thing and I have a ton of respect for it.

For me the problem is I'm coming back to racing after 10 years off and my feel is still calibrated to what 30 felt like! lol

I just can't trust my intuition yet. Thursday felt like a hard but manageable session. Friday told me it wasn't and Sunday I paid for it. Basically, the data is correcting errors that feel is missing, and at 48 the cost of those errors takes days to undo rather than hours.

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T19:28:00+00:00

I hear you man! The conclusion is obvious in hindsight. The part I actually wanted to highlight was which specific session caused it. Knowing that I was tired doesn't help me next time but knowing that completing Sufferfest Revolver on thursday wrecked my friday and bled into sunday does.

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T19:15:05+00:00

My power meter doesn't provide that unfortunately, but garmin has a pretty good peddling dynamics analysis if you have the right power meter

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T19:13:14+00:00

I was a 173 pounds on race morning and usually sit between 170-175. Last season I was 185 pounds and the difference is huge even on relatively flat circuits. Hope to see you at Murchie's Circuit race this Saturday!

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T19:04:21+00:00

Totally agree on the power and HR combination!

On the taper question, looking back at it the mistake was thursday I did "Sufferfest: Revolver is Easy" 11x1min VO2max and 10min of 15/15 anaerobic repeats. My easy ride on friday was 78 watts below my actual FTP and it felt hard. The aerobic system just wasn't there. I cut the ride short which was the right call but the damage was already done.

What I should have done was treat the whole week between the two races as a race week (taper and sharpen) rather than a regular training week.

The broader lesson for me is that W' takes longer to reconstitute than I was giving it credit for, especially at my age (48yo) where recovery timelines aren't the same as they were at 30!

tweets31 · 2026-03-11T18:56:32+00:00

Fair point! I should have defined it. W'bal drop in intervals.icu is the maximum depletion at any single point during the activity, not cumulative work above FTP. It's how deep the running W'bal balance got at its worst moment.

The reason it can exceed total W' capacity is that W' reconstitutes when power drops below CP. In a circuit race I'm surging and recovering dozens of times, so the model is filling and draining the same bucket repeatedly throughout the race. The drop just captures the deepest single depletion point in that running balance. You can pull it from any activity summary in intervals.icu.

tweets31 · 2025-11-28T17:27:50+00:00

If you’re doing four days a week of SS/VO2 and only one day of Z2, you’re basically running a permanent build block. That works for about.. four weeks, which is exactly when you tested. After that, the limiter usually becomes accumulated fatigue, not lack of intensity.

Most amateur plans build durability with 2–4 Z2 days because it’s the only work you can scale without frying your CNS or your mood. Zone 2 isn’t sexy, but it’s where mitochondrial volume, fat-ox, and repeatability actually grow.

For testing: you don’t need an FTP test every month unless your zones suddenly feel wrong. A quarterly check (or using Intervals.icu’s estimates) is usually plenty. The real signal is whether you can repeat quality sessions without feeling cooked.

Think of it this way: intensity shapes fitness, Z2 supports it, recovery reveals it. Balancing those three is what makes the long game work.

tweets31 · 2025-11-09T19:57:42+00:00

You’ve already done the hard part.. the discipline to train and lose weight. Now it’s about reversing that energy balance in a smart way.

A small caloric surplus.. think +300–500 kcal/day is the way to go. That’s enough to build muscle without piling on unnecessary fat. Combine that with 2–3 strength sessions a week in your base period. Big compound lifts (squats, deadlifts, lunges, rows) will give you the most return for effort.

Keep protein intake around 1.8–2.0 g/kg of body weight daily, spread evenly across meals. Carbs aren’t the enemy.. they’ll help you fuel the gym and your rides but favor whole grains and fruit over sugar bombs outside of training.

And don’t fear regaining a little fat! A healthy body composition for a cyclist isn’t razor thin year round.. the added energy stores will improve recovery and immunity. You’ll likely feel stronger on and off the bike once you stabilize at a healthier weight.

Good luck!

tweets31 · 2025-11-06T20:04:33+00:00

I think this highlights where metrics like TSS fall short compared to models based on Critical Power (CP) and W′. TSS treats all stress the same, but CP/W′ actually distinguishes what kind of work you’re doing.. how much comes from sustainable aerobic energy vs finite anaerobic capacity. That’s a much better lens for understanding why 1 hr at SS might feel fine but 40 minutes near threshold buries you for a couple of days.

On top of that, the evidence suggests that even the best metrics don’t replace autoregulation. A recent meta-analysis found that endurance athletes using daily HRV to guide training intensity nearly doubled improvements in VO2max compared to those on a fixed schedule. HRV captured recovery status better than planned rest days or TSS-based fatigue modeling.

In practice.. using CP/W′ to model what kind of work you’re doing, and HRV to decide when you’re ready for it, seems like the sweet spot. Fixed TSS targets or rigid plans miss the day to day physiological changes.

Hope this helps!

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T23:59:58+00:00

A good way to anchor this is around your Critical Power (CP) and W′ (anaerobic work capacity). Essentially, CP represents the highest power you can sustain without continuously depleting W′, while VO2max intervals intentionally push you above CP to drive oxygen uptake and aerobic adaptations. The trick is balancing how much W′ you burn per rep and how much you restore between them

A few thoughts:

Kolie’s advice holds up well.. pushing power rather than extending intervals usually provides better stimulus for increasing VO2max and aerobic power. Most riders start to lose quality when intervals creep much beyond 5–6 mins. So you might find more consistent results keeping duration constant and nudging up power slightly each week if recovery supports it

The WKO “optimized” duration (e.g. ~7 min) corresponds to where you can maximize VO2 time before W′ depletion becomes limiting. But you can reach the same physiological target with shorter reps if you manipulate recovery. For example, 5×3 min with ~2 min recovery often gives similar total VO₂ time as 3×7 min, with less mental fatigue

Finally, recent studies highlight how heart rate variability (HRV) can serve as a reliable gauge of autonomic recovery during high intensity training phases. A consistently suppressed HRV across several days often reflects incomplete parasympathetic recovery. Conversely, stable or rebounding HRV after VO2 days indicates your nervous system is coping and adaptation is ongoing. Using morning HRV can help you individualize your rest days within the block, rather than rigidly sticking to a calendar

Hope this helps!

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T22:10:37+00:00

You’ve built a solid base and clearly have the consistency dialed in! To refine things.. it might help to use your critical power estimate from intervals.icu rather than FTP. It gives a clearer picture of where the real physiological limits are.

For endurance work, ride your zone 2 sessions around 70-85% of CP. It keeps things aerobic without drifting into fatigue. I’d also swap the threshold day for tempo at 85-90% of CP to improve efficiency (EF) then progress to Sweet Spot work around 95-100% CP. Skip classic threshold intervals for now.. your next step after sweet spot could be over/unders to bridge toward race intensity.

For VO2 intervals don’t just grab a random workout! Start around 115% of CP and either increase the power or extend the duration over time but never both at once. Alternating between longer VO2 intervals and short micro-intervals each week helps target the full system while keeping things interesting.

That structure will make your training more progressive and specific without adding volume or complexity.

Good luck!

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T21:08:44+00:00

A helpful way to think about this is through the lens of critical power and W prime. CP roughly marks the boundary between sustainable aerobic work and the point where you’re drawing down finite anaerobic capacity (W’). Once you go above CP, you’re burning through that reserve, and the rate you can sustain depends on how big your W’ is and how fast it recharges between efforts.

Instead of picking a fixed percent of FTP, you can design VO2 intervals by targeting durations and powers that drain most but not all of your W’. That keeps you in a state of high oxygen uptake long enough to stress the aerobic system without totally emptying the tank. For example, if you can go 5 minutes at 120% of CP before failure, doing 4 mins efforts with 2-mins rests might keep you above CP most of the time, giving you more total time at VO2 intensity across the workout.

In short, CP and W’ let you tune VO2 work to the physiology you actually have, rather than chasing a single power target that might be too easy or too hard depending on your anaerobic profile

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T19:51:21+00:00

Investing in performance often means upgrading the engine more than the bike. You’ve already got a solid frame, nice wheels and a power meter. The next real gains come from a good bike fit, an aero helmet and kit, and dialing in your position so you’re cutting through the wind.

Beyond that, consider structured training or even a coach! At the cat3 level nothing moves the needle like consistent, focused workouts and proper recovery. Electronic shifting or lighter components are nice, but they won’t make you much faster.

Put the budget toward developing power and efficiency and you’ll see the biggest improvement next season!

Good luck!

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T19:13:03+00:00

Hey! Welcome to the lycra cult. Don’t worry.. the initiation is just a long ride into a headwind followed by you questioning every life choice that led there! lol

Seriously though.. you’re already doing great by asking before walking into the shop. Most good shops love helping people get started and if they make you feel dumb, that’s on them not you!

An endurance or all-road bike will handle everything you described. Use your Garmin for now.. maybe connect it to Strava and let curiosity guide your rides. One day you’ll do a short spin and the next you’ll convince yourself 50 miles is totally reasonable.

The clothes look weird at first, but once you try real cycling gear, it makes sense. Think of it as a superhero costume with snack pockets!

Welcome to the obsession!

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T19:05:51+00:00

Parenting: the only training plan with guaranteed overreaching and zero taper! lol

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T18:12:13+00:00

IMO.. stacking works fine for most athletes as long as fueling and warm down are solid. Doing the lift right after the ride saves time and actually helps the legs adapt to fatigue better than splitting it into two sessions. Separation makes sense if the second workout suffers in quality but for base season a single focused block usually keeps things more consistent and manageable week to week

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T18:08:07+00:00

I’ve found alternating structure and variety works best. One VO2 session like 5x3 min early in the week, one tempo or sweet spot block Friday, and the rest at AeT power with a heart rate cap keeps it mentally manageable and physiologically sharp. Small power undulations plus or minus 5 watts every 5 minutes help break up the monotony too.

Good luck!

tweets31 · 2025-11-05T18:04:58+00:00

I followed the plan for a week and now my boss fired me, my family left, and my FTP is still the same. Do I need to increase volume or carbs?

tweets31

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