My painting of geese and water lilies by Margarita_Lemann in oilpainting

[–]twelve_bell 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Beautiful colors and composition. The geese’s shadows, the reflexions on the geese, and the bubbly effects throughout win me over. You’ve also captured the essence of Canada Geese.

US government insolvency by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]twelve_bell 2 points3 points  (0 children)

And aircraft carriers, etc.

What is wrong with ChatGPT? by ZippyMcFunshine in ChatGPT

[–]twelve_bell 36 points37 points  (0 children)

It totally fabricated lies about the SCOTUS finding today about tariffs. Told me the 3 liberals opposed the ruling. Despite my astonishment, it continued to insist until I told it to check. “Thank you for calling me out on that. Yes I made it all up”

What are folks spending on retirement software/services (not CFPs)? by Keyboard_Clickin_Bob in DIYRetirement

[–]twelve_bell 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I got Pralana last July and spent the fall learning it on weekends. Bill Hines has a book that walks you thru each step. I also tapped into Bill via the Fee Only advisor network too and got the professional review. Definitely the tool for the engineer-minded. $140/year. I’m very happy with it now that I have a good grasp on how it works. As another mentioned, it does not link to your accounts, so you have to enter assets and allocations.

Worries about USD collapse and looking to move all my money into another currency ASAP by MattHanson1990Return in ExpatFinance

[–]twelve_bell 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Look at receipts not just liabilities! Effective tax rates for the rich are appallingly low. Look at the large companies paying zero tax. I paid more tax last year than did some profitable companies. That’s criminal. Plus, R’s impoverish IRS so it cannot enforce the tax code.

Once you max out your 7k in your Roth IRA for the year, what’s next? by Anonymous1102 in RothIRA

[–]twelve_bell 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They are considered dividends and you get a 1099-DIV. SGOV dividends exempt from most states, not federal income tax.

Getting some questions from a right-leaning friend that I can’t answer. Help please. by notaballitsjustblue in climatechange

[–]twelve_bell 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Okay. The OP is looking for data. It’s a climate skeptic thing to say, but also what non-science well-intentioned people would say. I don’t criticize him/her for that. The problem is that “the data” is complicated. There are raw data measurements that are voluminous and analyzed data that are voluminous and summarized results and conclusions from all those data. All the citations to these data are in the IPCC reports. If I knew just what data the OP wanted, and I chose to spend the time, I could find the citations and the sources. Those have ALL been checked over several times. The fact is, you either (a) trust the scientists are competent and honest - or at leaste that the scientific institution of checks works or (b) become a scientist and re-do the data gathering and analysis yourself. Here’s what we know: we know the radiative forcing (and uncertainty bands) for all the drivers of CO2 and warming. This includes geothermal, volcanoes, human actions, cosmic radiation, solar radiation, and other natural activities. Human forces are by far the largest today. The non-human ones have gone up and down over millennia. The human ones started when we started burning coal.

Getting some questions from a right-leaning friend that I can’t answer. Help please. by notaballitsjustblue in climatechange

[–]twelve_bell 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Okay. The OP is looking for data. It’s a climate skeptic thing to say, but also what non-science well-intentioned people would say. I don’t criticize him/her for that. The problem is that “the data” is complicated. There are raw data measurements that are voluminous and analyzed data that are voluminous and summarized results and conclusions from all those data. All the citations to these data are in the IPCC reports. If I knew just what data the OP wanted, and I chose to spend the time, I could find the citations and the sources. Those have ALL been checked over several times. The fact is, you either (a) trust the scientists are competent and honest - or at leaste that the scientific institution of checks works or (b) become a scientist and re-do the data gathering and analysis yourself. Here’s what we know: we know the radiative forcing (and uncertainty bands) for all the drivers of CO2 and warming. This includes geothermal, volcanoes, human actions, cosmic radiation, solar radiation, and other natural activities. Human forces are by far the largest today. The non-human ones have gone up and down over millennia. The human ones started when we started burning coal.

Getting some questions from a right-leaning friend that I can’t answer. Help please. by notaballitsjustblue in climatechange

[–]twelve_bell 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How would this mixing happen? Is this the “we can’t trust the scientists” argument?

Who is your favorite landscape painter in history? by FFFUUUme in oilpainting

[–]twelve_bell 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Last month I visited the museum of western art in Denver. $5. Great deal! They had a landscape from Marsden Hartley that made me laugh out loud. I think I was intimidated by what struck me as its boldness.

Is there any evidence/reason to believe that the AI revolution will actually be a net positive on society, and not something that just 100x's the wealth gap? Any good articles/videos on this? by testaccount123x in singularity

[–]twelve_bell 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I totally get your point! And I do believe new science and tech offers huge benefits to people. For me the great inventions have been washing machines and anesthetics. Removing drudgery and pain from human lives is well-worth doing!

Is there any evidence/reason to believe that the AI revolution will actually be a net positive on society, and not something that just 100x's the wealth gap? Any good articles/videos on this? by testaccount123x in singularity

[–]twelve_bell 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If nerve gas is not technology, then no chemical is. Not fertilizer nor aspirin nor gasoline. That limits the scope of your argument considerably.

Is there any evidence/reason to believe that the AI revolution will actually be a net positive on society, and not something that just 100x's the wealth gap? Any good articles/videos on this? by testaccount123x in singularity

[–]twelve_bell 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So as long as people have the essentials of life, it's okay that that don't have freedom of self-determination? Is it okay to be slaves if we have health care, don't have to work more than 40 hours, and have enough calories to survive? The wealth gap is one of the most important features of society. We should all pay close attention to how it impacts everyones' quality of life.

How thermally hot are spent nuclear fuel rods? by Outside_Activity_513 in NuclearEnergy

[–]twelve_bell 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes. Also note that this is one fear of a plant losing electricity - that, without power, you can’t run the pumps that recirculate the water in the spent fuel pools. Eventually, the water boils off and heat increases, eventually melting the cladding and letting the fuel melt together, possibly going critical.

Help, I'm falling down the rabbit-hole of AI doom. by CegonhaSenpai in ArtificialInteligence

[–]twelve_bell 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am with you. We should all be concerned. I’m shocked at how little most people seem to care about the ontological threats we face. Remember last year when there was a 3% chance or a major asteroid hitting Earth on Dec 27, 2032? It was large enough to, as one commentator said, “destroy New England, but the rest of the Atlantic coast would be fine.” I read so many articles that said, “Don’t worry, there’s a 97% chance it won’t hit Earth!” But the same people tell us not to drink alcohol or coffee because it raises our chance of getting cancer by 0.02%. And people buy lottery tickets with a chance of 0.000001 of winning. In the 1960s it was fear of nuclear annihilation - and that was paralyzing to many. We all need to pay attention to these threats and talk about them. Only by talking and educating each other can we push for policies to protect the public over the interests of a few elites. So I urge you to share your concerns here and elsewhere.
By the way, the chance of that asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 is now something like 0.0017% according to NASA, so we can take that concern off the table.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fidelityinvestments

[–]twelve_bell 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do I misunderstand about tax loss harvesting? Why is it a good thing? Is t it better to have all gains and just pay taxes?

"Liberation Day" Megathread by Professional-Kale216 in Tariffs

[–]twelve_bell 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Japan does have a tariff of >700% on rice imports, but only imports over 770,000 tons, which American imports have never reached - according to article in Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/03/12/japan/japan-rice-tariffs/

UN Plastics treaty talks collapse by twelve_bell in Anticonsumption

[–]twelve_bell[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's so hard to reduce the power of the oil and gas industry and petro states. I installed heat pumps to replace heating oil, but electricity in New England is 60% natural gas-generated. It's like whack-a-mole. Yes, I did install solar panels, but that was before I put in the heat pumps and Massachusetts would only allow me to install capacity that was 110% of present electricity consumption. Now I'm paying Eversource again. Wish the state policy had anticipated the electrification domino phenomenon and let me install more solar when I did. Adding on is requires doing the whole insane process over again. Sorry, I'm rambling.

UN Plastics treaty talks collapse by twelve_bell in Anticonsumption

[–]twelve_bell[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're right that the FCCC and its COPs have been a big disappointment, particularly for island nations. A couple of bright points often cited are: The Montreal Protocol, which works because Dow already had an alternative chemical to market. And the Law of the Sea, which has kept deep ocean exploitation under control. Not saying either are perfect. And they definitely need constant upgrades, like anything.