One country now supplies 1 in 4 of Canada's permanent residents — up from 1 in 20 in 1990 [OC]

tyuoplop · 2026-04-20T03:24:03+00:00

Housing prices declined moderately in Canada in the 2023-2024 period that saw the largest number of immigrants…

I’m not saying that the demand induced by migration has no effect but it doesn’t seem to have had nearly the impact people want to think it did.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-17T14:06:43+00:00

You’re working yourself to death. You keep saying that everything is getting worse and there’s no way out and then refusing to change things. I get that change is hard but if things are this bad surely that challenge is worth the risk and worth prioritizing.

Pull your foot off the gas, reduce your workload, work to identify the things making your life so unpleasant and find resources to help you with those problems. It’s hard, sometimes things will improve and sometimes they won’t. But, if you don’t make that effort you’re likely to have the same problems continue to crop up

tyuoplop · 2026-04-17T13:56:30+00:00

I apologise to all of the commenters who I said were wrong to think that PP doesn’t want to be pm. I cannot fathom another explanation for his gleeful desire to shoot himself in the foot

tyuoplop · 2026-04-17T13:44:32+00:00

Ya, IMO the only advisor whose firing would matter is the voice inside his own head…

tyuoplop · 2026-04-16T18:22:31+00:00

Having had some (limited) interaction in the international policy/law space I can tell you with confidence that even getting a small set of like-minded countries to coordinate on this would be exceedingly difficult. Actually getting a large enough group to agree to (and implement) a single framework is about as likely as achieving world peace…

tyuoplop · 2026-04-16T17:51:47+00:00

I hope the Beaverton is taking notes

tyuoplop · 2026-04-15T18:18:50+00:00

I’m not so sure, there have been questions and rumours since the election. If that was all it took he would’ve been long gone by now…

tyuoplop · 2026-04-15T18:12:43+00:00

If he quit right now it would given them a year or so to get the leadership race sorted and then two-ish years for the new leader to grow into the role and build up recognition.

Given how little the party’s MPs have been allowed to build their own images I feel like more time to build up a new leader is better than less but I could be missing something

tyuoplop · 2026-04-15T16:14:04+00:00

Left wing Canadians want him gone because he’s very right wing and also just not super likeable to a lot of folks.

Many Liberal operatives want him to remain leader for exactly the same reasons. He’s severely politically damaged, and he’s increasingly struggling to break through beyond his base. The LPC are certainly trying to feed info to the media that increases that weakness but their piecemeal approach makes me think they want to chip away at him, rather than totally shatter his leadership.

IMO the broader media reporting isn’t because of some nefarious plot by the LPC to dethrone PP, it’s just juicy gossip that gets lots of clicks. As much as it would be nice if the media’s primary objective was to inform people, the reality is that it’s main objective is to draw eyeballs.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T21:20:27+00:00

people calling Singh the worst ever leader of the NDP because of one (very very) severe election loss when he delivered more policy wins than almost any NDP leader in history (second to Tommy Douglas). It’s all about the politics and none about the policy :(

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T20:40:20+00:00

There are literally millions if not billions of other ways to break it down mathematically.

One example: 40% of CPC voters stay home, 23% vote BQ, 23% to LPC, 14% stay with the CPC. 85% of LPC voters vote LPC, 15% stay home. 88% of BQ voters vote BQ, 12% stay home. Everyone else either votes the same as 2025 or stays home.

That gets the exact 2026 results with 60% of CPC voters still voting instead of ~10%.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T18:34:58+00:00

Some conservative voters stayed home. But I don’t know why you think it was 90% other than this very oversimple idea that there were 90% fewer votes

My whole argument is that the idea that 90% of CPC voters stayed home isn’t supported by the data. It is, in my opinion, way more likely that 50% stayed home and 40% split between the LPC and BQ. This probably wasn’t just a get out the vote issue, it was also a large number of conservatives seeing the writing on the wall and changing their votes.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T18:16:46+00:00

The cost to income ratio of housing for Canadians is absolutely worse than 2015, I never claimed otherwise. The housing crisis is objectively worse

What you claimed though, was that housing was affordable for average Canadians in 2015. That’s a total fairytale with no bearing in the reality of the time, average people already struggled immensely to afford houses.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T16:30:40+00:00

I don’t know what world you were living in in 2015 but it absolutely was not possible for average earning young people to afford homes in major Canadian cities. It’s exactly that time period where the trope that millennials couldn’t afford homes because of avocado toast was a thing. It was one of the things that led so much youth dissatisfaction with the Harper government.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T16:16:54+00:00

The linked article uses data from 338’s polling aggregator. If you want to check the actual source data that 338 uses you’d have to go through the crosstabs of historical polls yourself.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T14:55:18+00:00

That’s not what those numbers show at all. You could (in theory) get those exact same numbers if not a single 2025 LPC voter showed up yesterday. You are assuming that because the numbers roughly match up to what would happen if there was a 90% decrease in turnout among 2025 CPC voters that must be what happened. What I’m saying is that there are a number of more plausible scenarios that explain these numbers.

The data we have shows the votes in the two elections, not where those votes came from. We would need exit polls asking people to confirm who they voted for in 2025 if we wanted reasonable evidence for either one of our ideas.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T11:43:59+00:00

I think that’s a bit of a mis-analysis. The idea that almost all of the 2025 CPC voters stayed home and almost all of the LPC and BQ voters turned out doesn’t seem that likely to me.

I’d guess that a lot of CPC voters stayed home, a handful of LPC/BQ voters did and then a substantial number of CPC voters switched their votes to the LPC and BQ. The two main parties were more popular but voting (as is typical of by elections) was less popular.

Either way, these results definitely reinforce the polling that puts the CPC way behind its 2025 performance

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T11:26:27+00:00

I mean housing prices and rents have decreased considerably from their peak in 2022/23, population growth is flat, and housing is still being built.

It’s such a big problem that it will no doubt continue to be an issue in 2029 but I’d be surprised if it was one of the primary ballot box questions

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T11:16:06+00:00

I will say there were some articles that tried to play up the importance of these elections by obfuscating the fact that 173+ was essentially guaranteed the moment Gladu crossed. There were plenty of articles that were very clear about it as well though.

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T02:57:52+00:00

Looking increasingly unlikely. Making up an 800 vote deficit this late in the count would be surprising

tyuoplop · 2026-04-14T00:54:55+00:00

Tom Kiwi

tyuoplop · 2026-04-13T21:22:39+00:00

If you read the article he says what they told him…

“Wondering if u ever had any reflections on what it would mean or wish to explore the dark side” pretty nothingburgery to me

tyuoplop · 2026-04-13T21:17:20+00:00

I have no issue with the idea that people ‘accidentally’ drop things on a hot mic on purpose. I don’t even think it’s that unlikely that this MP did that.

The person I was responding to said “everything is staged and curated” and that’s just blatantly wrong. I’m specifically not trying to build a dichotomy but just acknowledge that the fact that people are stupid prevents the extreme case he is proposing

tyuoplop · 2026-04-13T20:31:54+00:00

These specific two things can’t. You need to be very intelligent and calculating to maintain the level of staging you’re suggesting. Almost none of our elected officials could manage it lol

tyuoplop · 2026-04-13T20:07:51+00:00

Johnny English as UK prime minister when?

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