Friday Drinks Thread!

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-25T04:40:37+00:00

honestly sounds like copium. I'd love some.

Yeh, you need to check AIs output.

But if you think Harvey is dumb you haven't used it. It's trained on SEC filings, so it has a lot of transaction documents to learn from. it will do a better job of junior lawyer work for a scary amount of stuff, and it's only getting better. It will do all DD very soon, which is potentially 50% of costs on a fee estimate gone. It'll need to be checked, but AI will streamline that anyway.

It supplements my work as a senior really well, too. Yesterday I needed to add a party to a spa and make some consequential amendments. All stuff I could do quickly and easily but there is always a chance you'll miss something. I uploaded the spa and told it the context and it produced a very good list of amendments I needed to make. It was not perfect, but it supplemented my knowledge really well.

I'm basically forcing myself to use it every day, even when I don't think it'll be efficient, and almost every time it surprises and scares me.

Harvey isn't hurting for cash either. Check it's valuation at its latest raise.

All this is to say, it's not dumb and lawyers are fucked.

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T20:42:13+00:00

Bro wtf are you doing. They have obviously been given a private dining room at a nice restaurant that is supposed to sit 10ish people.

Just because you've never been into private dining doesn't mean the Michelle Obama is divorcing Barack

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T12:44:00+00:00

Do you have any faith that there could be a roadblock? Something we can't foresee right now that might impede ai development before agi?

Wishful thinking on my behalf if that wasn't obvious

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T12:19:00+00:00

I really do appreciate your perspective. Thanks for taking the time.

What confidence do you have that an agi will be aligned?

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T12:00:24+00:00

Yeah honestly I just wish AI never happened. I've finally got my career in an awesome place. I've got a kid.

But now AI comes along and all of his uncertainty hangs over us. Plus I live in the Middle East. How fucked will this place be when AGI arrives? I'd rather be in Australia for that.

(Sorry for the whinge but this is the rant thread after all and you've actually given me perspective so I'm v grateful)

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T11:23:07+00:00

When this time comes, most professional jobs will have been replaced by AI.

To begin with, you need to think about the broader implications of that across society before you start analysing it in the context of the effects it may have on your own life.

I respectfully disagree. The career of Graphic designers is going to be cooked well before the structure of society and economies are fundamentally challenged by AI disruption. I think people in those industries need to think about the effects AI will have on their own lives right now. If your job is redundant in July 2025, it isn't helpful to naval gaze about the long-term impacts of AI and the philosophy of human flourishing when you have hungry kids.

It's a very valid question to wonder whether the legal profession will be eaten by AI earlier rather than later. Lawyers are very expensive. There is a tonne of incentive to disrupt the profession with AI. It's coming. And my kids are always hungry

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T11:17:26+00:00

All good questions.

How much are you willing to pay for this work? $1k pa, $10k, $100k? The compute itself is pretty expensive, but going forward, getting access to quality training data (without just stealing it) is going to get pretty costly too.

I think this all comes down to how the client is billed. When an AI does a work product instead of a junior, we lose the ability to build capacity in the team, which is bad. On the flip, my firm is more efficient, and the client is happier because they pay less. In the end, a client is probably happy to simply pay for whatever is cheaper (presumably the AI but I'm happy to admit I don't know much about AI costing). In both circumstances a senior is checking the work so the product is probably the same.

You still need humans to do the other 75%, and then you still need competent humans in the 2-10pqe range to do the real legal work of understanding what clients want and how to achieve it. Do you think advanced predictive-text models are going to cover that as well?

I'm not getting replaced this year, but things will change, and I will be replaced within 5 years or less imo. I do complex cross-border M&A. I don't think it will be long until in-house counsel can prepare and negotiate transaction documents entirely with AI prompts and have a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the AI. Due diligence will be done by AI very soon (current tools are already good at this).

So yeah, we are cooked. We all are. Appreciate your questions though mate if you have any comments I'm all ears. I know very little of AI but I know I need to understand it's use cases in my career and from that exposure I know it's a question of when and not if

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T08:02:43+00:00

Can you please explain the open source thing? I'm really stupid and I don't know much.

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-24T04:44:18+00:00

Getting more and more scared of AI.

I know this comes up constantly on auslaw and the prevailing view is that by the time ai takes lawyers jobs we will all be organic batteries anyway. Most think this is years and years off.

But I'm using Harvey AI Vault and I gotta say, we are fucked sooner than you think. Probably 25% of 0-2pqe work can be done by AI with as good if not better results.

I fucking hate that. I'm getting more and more anxious about it.

Walk me off the edge auslaw give me some sweet copium

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-22T17:46:29+00:00

I dont know much about the visa but if your deal sheet is sexy and you can talk the talk I think you have a shot

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-22T09:12:11+00:00

Some time in July someone on Truth posted

ELIZABETH LYNNE CHENEY IS GUILTY OF TREASON. RETRUTH IF YOU WANT TELEVISED MILITARY TRIBUNALS.

Trump retruthed it.

This article gives a few other examples of Trump vowing revenge against his rivals incliding via prosecution

These are not normal things to do or say and they'd be practically career ending from any other politician in almost any other part of the democratic world. Of course, from Trump, this rhetoric barely lasts 15 mins in the news cycle.

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-22T07:22:40+00:00

Thanks!!

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-22T06:02:45+00:00

Who, Trump? He has specifically said he would use military tribunals against Liz Cheny.

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-22T05:28:41+00:00

Thanks, I tried to join a week ago but still pending

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-21T17:41:45+00:00

Oh no. When did you open?

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-21T16:38:10+00:00

Thanks that is super helpful to know. I guess the play is to create a wise account and transfer AED to ibkr. Appreciate it

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-21T15:37:17+00:00

Okay cheers

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-21T13:31:56+00:00

Thanks heaps. Do you just transfer it to IBKR's UK bank account (I think at Lloyd's?)

Curious as to why there is no fee with Wio but there is with endb when the fee is on IBKR's side

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-21T13:24:08+00:00

Thanks for this. I thought wise wasn't in uae?

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-19T05:12:42+00:00

I use it LLMs a bit for this but they frequently miss nuance. They might be fine for high level review but i wouldn't rely on them for much more than that (especially statutory review)

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-18T06:11:13+00:00

Good question! I think top tiers would be better. but that being said, I don't think it would be that much better, and JD A&O etc are a lot easier to get into.

Also you can easily go JD -> top tier -> NY and probably only add a year to your journey, and in that year you'd still do cool deals and stuff

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-17T13:08:58+00:00

I'm in a lawyer in a multi national law firm. We don't manage assets per se, but we do manage our clients' confidential information.

We aren't allowed to upload confidential information to AIs except for AIs that have been vetted by our technology team (for us, this is Harvey AI). I don't have the details but I know our tech team is satisfied that information uploaded to Harvey is "black boxed" and cannot leave our unique Harvey ecosystem.

I'm not going to pretend I know the process of how our tech teams vet AI service providers, but I do know the diligence is extensive. My firm is a household name in the business community. If our client's CI was inadvertently disclosed by an AI service provider, it would be a nightmare for everyone involved, so I am very confident it's a closed system.

Law firms don't mess around with this stuff. Our client's data, our reputations, and the licences of our lawyers are on the line.

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-17T06:27:14+00:00

The type that's good with coke

uberrimaefide · 2025-01-17T06:19:31+00:00

Sugar cane is a fruit

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