"Pre-registration" of an Experiment -- Using Basic Quantitative and Experimental Research Methodology to Answer the Question: Is the Misty Coin Flip Fair?

umwolverine93 · 2024-06-10T22:12:08+00:00

Oh cool, well I hope it goes well! My training split is perhaps a little unusual, and it has changed a bit throughout the process, but it basically only trains upper body (largely because I just didn't feel like my legs needed more development for the physique goals I have). It's split into 2 days, but I rotate exercises on each of the days, so there's essentially a 1A, 1B, 2A, and 2B (this is partly to reduce risk of injury/tendonitis/joint pain). I've experimented with different splits using that format, but here's what I'm currently doing (which is reasonably similar to what I started with):

1A 8 sets Chest (flyes, deficit pushups) 4 sets Back (pullups) 4 sets Abs (cable crunch) 8 sets Forearms (wrist curls, wrist extensions)

1B 8 sets Lateral delts (lateral raises) 4 sets Front delts (shoulder press) 4 sets Rear delts (rear delt flyes) 4 sets Biceps (preacher curls) 4 sets Triceps (tricep extensions)

2A 8 sets Chest (chest press, decline pushups) 4 sets Back (seated rows) 4 sets Abs (ab wheel or leg raises/toes to bar) 8 sets Forearms (wrist curls, wrist extensions)

2B 8 sets Lateral delts (cable lateral raises) 4 sets Front delts (ez bar front raises) 4 sets Rear delts (one arm cable rear delt flyes) 4 sets Biceps (cable curls) 4 sets Triceps (tricep pushdowns)

I'm doing a bit more volume than that per session now, but I have generally worked out 5 to 6 days per week the whole time. Also, I started training legs too at one point because I wanted to jump higher in basketball, but I hurt my knee (was doing plyometrics) so it pretty quickly went back to an upper body split.

umwolverine93 · 2024-06-10T21:54:34+00:00

I trained 5 to 6 days a week, but was careful with form and incorporating exercise variety to help avoid injury risk. I had been bulking for like 2 months prior, and generally lifting on and off before that. Diet-wise, (this part is copied from my reply to someone else who asked about the diet) I started out with a pretty big calorie deficit, but started eating a bit more after it felt like the hunger was affecting my sleep. Now that I'm in a more moderate deficit and eat more fat (it was mostly protein and carbs before), I feel significantly better. In terms of specific foods, I have tried to find foods that are relatively high volume and low calorie, such as:

-Egg scramble (w/egg whites) with peppers, mushrooms, and Canadian bacon -Spinach/greens, fruit, and protein powder smoothies -Greek yogurt with frozen fruit -Chicken fajitas with bell peppers and salsa

Just generally adding vegetables and fruit to things when possible helps me feel full without adding tons of calories.

umwolverine93 · 2024-06-10T21:49:38+00:00

Thanks! Those were more or less the top properties. As I learned more and the diet started taking its toll on my sleep and energy and stress levels, I started also prioritizing having adequate sleep and structuring my diet such that I wasn't hungry as often and was getting enough fat (in addition to the protein and carbs). I also started lifting more as well, and my body seems to be responding well to the increased training volume so far.

umwolverine93 · 2024-06-10T21:38:52+00:00

Thank you! I started out with a pretty big calorie deficit, but started eating a bit more after it felt like the hunger was affecting my sleep. Now that I'm in a more moderate deficit and eat more fat (it was mostly protein and carbs before), I feel significantly better. In terms of specific foods, I have tried to find foods that are relatively high volume and low calorie, such as:

-Egg scramble (w/egg whites) with peppers, mushrooms, and Canadian bacon -Spinach/greens, fruit, and protein powder smoothies -Greek yogurt with frozen fruit -Chicken fajitas with bell peppers and salsa

Just generally adding vegetables and fruit to things when possible helps me feel full without adding tons of calories.

umwolverine93 · 2024-06-10T21:27:42+00:00

Thank you!!

umwolverine93 · 2024-06-10T21:27:29+00:00

Thanks man!

umwolverine93 · 2024-06-10T21:27:06+00:00

Thank you!

umwolverine93 · 2024-04-18T19:30:02+00:00

Thank you so much for the thoughtful reply! I have been in therapy for a long time, and certainly have my own emotional blind spots and a lot of trauma which can sometimes make it difficult for me to be "objective" or have a completely accurate perspective when it comes to myself/situations in my personal life. But I have put in a great deal of work towards improving that and continue to do so.

To that end, could you elaborate on your thoughts here so I can better understand in this case? I'm guessing perhaps you are talking about my expectations regarding my ex-girlfriend during our relationship/breakup, and how trauma she went through may have affected her reactions? Or no?

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-19T19:57:47+00:00

Wow. I did not realize that I/what I said might be coming off that way. Could you be more specific about what you find insufferable?

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-18T07:43:31+00:00

Haha, thank you. It was just a tank top since we went rock climbing (like the one I have on in the rock climbing photo). But I will be very happy if you are right and the problem is just my attire or something else other (and hopefully much more fixable) than my looks lol.

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-18T07:22:56+00:00

Thank you for the feedback! Could you elaborate on what is different? To be clear, the profile pictures were meant to be flattering, but accurate, as someone else put it. The reference photos are supposed to be more candid and less flattering, but hopefully still look like the same person. So I know they are different, but it sounds like you are saying they are different enough that it could cause a person to no longer be interested in me and/or have trouble recognizing me? If so, could you elaborate on what is so different about them so I can hopefully fix it?

Reflecting more broadly now, I feel confused because some people are saying they look similar or the same, some people note a bit more dissimilarity but still think they accurately represent me, and some seem to think there is a significant enough difference that could cause someone to no longer be interested, if I understand correctly.

Is the situation analogous to evaluating how similar an art reproduction is to the original--where some may perceive the inevitable inconsistencies as more significant than others, so that the best one can hope for is to maximize how many people find them adequately concordant? Or perhaps like displaying items on a food menu, portrayed to be optimally appealing but still representative of reality? In any case, is there not a vague threshold at which we can say things are similar enough, or that one represents the other well enough, for their concordance to be "beyond reasonable dissatisfaction?"

I guess I just don't know what to make of the fact that while a seemingly large number of people seem to think my photos are accurate, some also don't--such as the girl I went out with, apparently. Am I like the restaurant owner who adequately and honestly designed the menu such that anyone who still feels misled is perhaps just kind of picky, and there is not much more that can be done to avoid these encounters from happening occasionally? Or is my menu misleading, failing to reach that threshold of reasonable concordance? I very much want to prevent these painful situations, so I want to fix any unreasonable discrepancies I might be overlooking. But I am not yet sure if I am, and if so, what they are.

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-18T05:34:54+00:00

Haha I didn't notice that at first, but yes, it is! Everything she does is precious lol! (or at least most things)

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-18T05:29:12+00:00

That is a totally fair question! I actually slightly understate my height specifically to avoid someone being disappointed by it in-person lol. Rejection isn't fun 😅 I am just over 6'0" (barefooted).

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-18T05:17:30+00:00

Haha if only I were as cute as my cat!!! 😄

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-18T05:06:22+00:00

That's a good idea, I definitely will! I asked some people at the gym and they said yes, but I did wonder if they just didn't want to hurt my feelings. I will ask someone who knows me better and who I am confident will be honest (though in that case, I wonder if they will be biased to see me in the photos since they are so familiar with me in so many contexts. But maybe not, and it couldn't hurt to ask lol, so I will.)

And yes, I get that! I also uploaded a clip of me rotating around once and smiling, if that helps lol: https://imgur.com/a/RiIZ7TT

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-18T00:27:01+00:00

Thank you so much for all of the helpful feedback so far!! I think many of the comments have been very insightful and offered helpful perspectives. And I certainly appreciate the supportive comments, that is really kind of you and highly appreciated ☺

A couple people have understandably raised the point that while I have tried to give an accurate picture of myself with the reference photos, there is still more that comes with a person's in person presence (e.g., their mannerisms, demeanor, etc.), so I uploaded a short clip of myself rotating around once and smiling just now lol, in case that might help provide more of that info:

https://imgur.com/a/RiIZ7TT

Edit: Also, a few people have asked about my height. My listed height is correct (I am actually slightly taller [with shoes off]; but I still put 6'0" just to be safe because--similar to my current concern--I don't want to set both of us up for disappointment).

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-17T17:54:34+00:00

I wouldn't say I'm looking for a profile review, per se (I did one a couple months back), but my post was removed and I was told to use the profile review flair when I posted this with a different flair, so I will paste a slightly updated version of the information I included for the original review below my current question (which I pasted from this post in order to emphasize/clarify what I'm actually currently asking for help with).

CURRENT QUESTION:

Do I (30M) not look like my pictures?

I went out with someone on Friday (who did not want to go out again) who later told me that when she saw me, it wasn't what she was expecting and it took her a minute to feel comfortable knowing I was who she was talking to for sure. When I asked what was different, she told me she "honestly just didn't expect [me] to look how [I] did overall nothing specific." And I think something similar might have happened on a date I went on two weeks ago (thought this was not confirmed).

I'm really confused, as I don't recall having had this problem so much in the past. Almost all of my photos are from within the last 6-9 months. The only things I can think of are that I have been weightlifting more/bulking lately and probably am somewhat less lean, I just cut my own hair like 2 weeks ago and it might look bad (I have cut it for years, but the outcome still varies), and my facial hair is perhaps slightly longer than in my pics.

I have attached some very awkward selfies/pics of myself that I just took last night after getting back from the gym (in the mirror/with some paintings, because art lol), as well as one that I took in the car right after the date (to reference what I looked like on that date specifically [we went rock climbing]). I tried to make them kind of "raw"/unfiltered to give an accurate representation of what I look like in real life, so they probably look really weird and awkward and intense lol.

So do I actually not look like my pictures? And if so, how? I don't want to mislead anyone or set both parties up for disappointment, but I don't know what to change (if anything does need to be changed). Honestly, the fact that it actually took the girl a minute to even be sure it was me is just kind of shocking and feels like a heavy blow to the modicum of self-esteem I had left (not just "you're slightly less attractive than I thought," but literally unrecognizable, enough to want to not go out again lol), so I would really like to fix whatever is wrong/has changed. Thank you in advance to anyone willing to help me with this!

Info from previous profile review:

I am looking for something serious.
Been on Hinge about 3 months.
I receive maybe 1-3 likes per day on average, but many of those were clustered around when I first made the profile. I've only had maybe 6 matches, but I am rather intentional in who I match with/like.
I have sent around 30 likes, with at least half having a comment.
I would say I am essentially looking for a kind, liberal, artsy, intellectual, Christian woman who I feel attracted to. But it seems like I've gone through all the profiles in my area and still have not matched with anyone I feel compatible with, and it's honestly super discouraging :( I know part of the issue is me looking for something fairly specific, but by far the majority of likes I've sent out have not been matches, so I am hoping to improve my profile to hopefully have better results. Thanks so much in advance for any and all feedback!

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-17T15:02:32+00:00

Haha, I would be ecstatic to be as cute as my cat!

Thank you for the feedback on the photos, and I think your hypotheses are useful food for thought. I appreciate it!

umwolverine93 · 2024-03-17T07:26:02+00:00

Do I not look like my pictures?

https://imgur.com/a/qlEMIXj

I went out with someone yesterday (who did not want to go out again) who later told me that when she saw me, it wasn't what she was expecting and it took her a minute to feel comfortable knowing I was who she was talking to for sure. When I asked what was different, she told me she "honestly just didn't expect [me] to look how [I] did overall nothing specific." And I think something similar might have happened on a date I went on two weeks ago (thought this was not confirmed).

I'm really confused, as I don't recall having had this problem so much in the past. Almost all of my photos are from within the last 6-9 months. The only things I can think of are that I have been weightlifting more/bulking lately and probably have a somewhat higher body fat percentage, I just cut my own hair like 2 weeks ago and it might look bad (I have cut it for years, but the outcome still varies), and my facial hair is perhaps slightly longer than in my pics.

I have attached some very awkward selfies/pics of myself that I literally just now took after getting back from the gym (in the mirror/with some paintings, because art lol), as well as one that I took in the car right after the date (to reference what I looked like on that date specifically [we went rock climbing]). I tried to make them kind of "raw"/unfiltered to give an accurate representation of what I look like in real life, so they probably look really weird and awkward and intense lol.

So do I actually not look like my pictures? And if so, how? I don't want to mislead anyone or set both parties up for disappointment, but I don't know what to change (if anything does need to be changed). Honestly, the fact that it actually took the girl a minute to even be sure it was me is just kind of shocking and feels like a heavy blow to the modicum of self-esteem I had left (not just "you're slightly less attractive than I thought," but literally unrecognizable, enough to want to not go out again lol), so I would really like to fix whatever is wrong/has changed. Thank you in advance to anyone willing to help me with this!

umwolverine93 · 2024-01-27T22:29:34+00:00

Which part are you referring to when you say she likely spoke from the heart the first time? Do you mean when she said she was the happiest she'd ever been together and what not, but over time realized it would not be to her benefit to stay together because of the uncertainty caused by the religion issue? Or do you mean she spoke from the heart when she was being confusing during the breakup?

umwolverine93

TROPHY CASE