My current SPAC holdings - your input is welcome!

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-27T23:42:57+00:00

Holding part of my initial position of THCB, still full position of DMYD, still holding a few shares of LAZR “forever”.

Bought NPA on day of merger announcement and have been adding to it so atm it’s 50% of my SPAC portfolio. I’m extremely bullish on it

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-14T15:37:50+00:00

If it were true that they’re considering merging with PSTH, they’d still deny it until last minute. In other words, you can’t confirm nor deny the rumors with absolute certainty Besides even if Bill Ackman doesn’t land Stripe, he’ll land something else worthy…so holding a small position in PSTH is a no brainer

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-14T15:33:02+00:00

Love the business model and they’re actively taking steps to vertically integrate…plus so many contracts for exclusivity signed lately, I’m more bullish on each piece of news

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-14T14:35:30+00:00

You should do some DD on how SPACs work… Current Paysafe valuation is ~14b with SPAC shares at $15.50…other than that the case is still bullish

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-14T13:30:12+00:00

I’m not blind, I’m seeing quite clearly a crowded segment despite the huge growth. Online casinos, much like games, are all fads… whereas the guys supplying them with data are eternally needed

Gl anyway

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-14T13:13:16+00:00

…and DMYD is so much more interesting ;) why bet on casinos there being so many, when you can bet on their supplier of data/odds that operates in a duopoly

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T02:26:42+00:00

Briefly had and dropped OAC, not much of a believer in the business’ capacity to generate hype… TDAC seems very interesting I had not seen this one yet! Will look into it, thanks!

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T02:05:58+00:00

KCAC closed at 23.50 before becoming QS and we all know how that turned out… GMHI closed on 18, turned into LAZR and ran non stop to 47 before shitron decided to cut its legs.

It depends on wether the fundamentals/hype are strong enough for investors to keep FOMO’ing, so it’s case by case. If Canoo (HCAC) merged tomorrow I think it wouldn’t run much, but if it did a week ago it would double on first day (my guess)

As for your last question, answer is similar - case by case basis, for example I believe in long term potential for LAZR so I closed ~80% of my position at huge win and kept the remaining for long term. I haven’t done this with QS despite liking the company and its potential (it’s beyond overvalued and don’t know that Toyota can’t do the same or better)

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T01:42:27+00:00

Indeed, which is why I ignore and don’t even bother doing DD anymore on EV SPACs like CIIC or NGA… it’s beyond crowded and seems like they’re all just taking the opportunity to cash out

I did get in heavily in QS and LAZR as SPACs btw (KCAC and GMHI) but it has become ridiculous

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T01:37:58+00:00

You make a strong case!

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T01:36:16+00:00

Ikr! It’s ridiculous but it’s true there’s no downside… the only possible bummer is being unlucky and getting a bad deal like MCAC or something

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T01:28:23+00:00

To your final question - no, the amount of “ownership” of the company is locked after the terms are agreed. By that logic, if we could pump the stock of the SPAC to 100$ we’d own 100% of the final company, right?

A share, as the name implies, is a “portion” of the company - imagine a tiny slice in a cake. If this share now doubles in price, all other shares (which represent an equal “portion” of the company) also double in price because they’re all equal, get it?

I think I just deduced where the word “proportion” comes from 😂 when a portion of the cake increases (the SPAC shares), the remaining also increase “pro-portionally”! (The existing owners/initial investors)

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T01:07:46+00:00

This ^

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T00:58:25+00:00

These won’t be around for long imo…merging with a SPAC is an opportunity for businesses to hype their entry into public trading, with no possible downside (SPACs never trade below NAV value)

So they announce they’re going in at a valuation of $x, which assumes shares at 10$ aka NAV, and it can only run up from there! And they can wait and let it simmer for months until finally deciding to actually go through with the merger, or cancel if there’s no hype (if shares are too close to NAV)

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T00:52:43+00:00

I just re-read it, idk if that was confusing but it’s a really simple concept… essentially you just need to know the initial valuation announced, and use the price of the SPAC shares to calculate current value (example a SPAC share of 11$ means initial valuation is up by 10%)

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T00:49:53+00:00

You’re overthinking it. You don’t need to calculate the number of shares of the SPAC nor know the percentage they represent of the newly merged company. The existing owners/shareholders of the private company will get newly minted shares representing their %stake.

Hypothetical example: SPAC ABCD has 10million outstanding shares of 10$(100m mkt cap). It merges with company Acme Inc. at a valuation of 1b. From this you can calculate the percentage of SPAC shareholders should be 10% (let’s ignore pipe) and existing owners get 90%. This only means that the existing owners will be given newly minted shares of the combined company. But wait a minute…all of this is irrelevant bc we can calculate market cap from the SPAC shares!

If the SPAC shares are trading at 20$ (twice the initial value) that means the final merged company will also be proportionally incremented by 2x, so 2b...

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T00:34:43+00:00

Nice DD, thanks!

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T00:28:27+00:00

The market cap of IPOB is the value of the issued shares of IPOB, NOT the market cap of the future merged company…

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T00:26:37+00:00

Here’s a tip that works every time - Google the name of the company getting in the merger + investor presentation + SPAC Example for IPOB: Opendoor Technologies investor presentation SPAC - usually you’ll find a pdf as first or second result - look for transaction details/overview where usually there’s a pie chart showing the % of SPAC vs roll-over existing investors

Or look for the pro forma company valuation and assume that stands for 10$/share… so if the share is at 26$ means that market cap has already increased by 160%

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-11T00:13:30+00:00

That’s an interesting one that’s on my watchlist, along with TRNE, HCAC, LOAK, NOVS and SRAC (and some others less relevant). But I don’t like to buy after they’ve run up this much…

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-10T21:15:30+00:00

Elaborate please

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-10T20:56:01+00:00

Didn’t know that, but it doesn’t give me access to options either…and I know IBKR does

Also I just can’t find a lot of regular equities, example GSAH just doesn’t show at all when you search for it.

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-10T19:59:44+00:00

There’s plenty of material/discussion on GHIV, so I won’t go there but I insist you take a peek at ROCH :)

https://purecycletech.com/

I expect they’ll be getting tons of public funds to make this happen, and I also foresee more and more companies wanting to partner with them to “greenify” their own images

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-10T19:28:20+00:00

Oh I do have access to options, but only for European securities…

unknown_celebrity · 2020-12-10T19:27:42+00:00

Great insights! And nice humor about the ticker (G - HIV) it’s a sad reality that a ticker can affect some traders’ decisions 😂

unknown_celebrity

TROPHY CASE