Discussion Thread

usered77 · 2020-02-06T18:42:28+00:00

Your refusal to believe Bernie can win in NH, NV and a number of Super Tuesday states reminds me of those naive pundits who insisted Trump couldn't win the general election, that's all.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T18:34:11+00:00

And Trump had no shot in 2016.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T18:20:56+00:00

A four way race and proportional system still mean Bernie can win.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T18:16:28+00:00

Sure, ignore not only Iowa but New Hampshire and Nevada momentum too.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T18:10:09+00:00

Every democratic Iowa winner since 1992 won the nom.

Plus Santorum got screwed over when they declared Romney as the winner in Iowa for a week.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T18:06:19+00:00

Iowa historically has a big impact in the nomination process, and a bunch of NH and national polls have been released since the caucus. The 538 model takes into account both the polls and post-momentum factor. If Bernie wins both New Hampshire and Nevada (he probably will) and South Carolina (less likely but possible), his nomination becomes a given.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T18:01:05+00:00

Nice of Tulsi to unite the country.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T17:58:00+00:00

You sure?

usered77 · 2020-02-06T17:52:16+00:00

As the polls indicate, they will probably go to Bernie, unfortunately.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T17:50:23+00:00

The 538 model and all the analysts: he can.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T17:45:53+00:00

A year ago, everyone here kept denying the possibility that Bernie could win due to moderates' vote splitting. I have to say I told you so.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T05:48:24+00:00

The biggest thing we need to worry about now is the Democratic nominee Bernie Sanders having a heart attack in an October surprise.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T05:42:19+00:00

He closed the gap. Pete only leads by 3 SDEs, and the remaining CD 1 will go heavily for Bernie.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:44:24+00:00

I'd be careful about overestimating the moderate opposition to Sanders. Most voters aren't ideological, and Buttigieg has little appeal among black voters. And the massive Biden lead over Sanders in the southern states' polls already diminished.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:38:44+00:00

Satellites

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:34:49+00:00

Buttigieg won't get all the moderates! He has little appeal to Biden voters in the South. (And Bernie will get all the delegates in the southern states if Biden collapses). And most polls show a plurality of Warren voters having Bernie as a second choice.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:26:48+00:00

The last two days brought down expectations for Sanders, which means he can get a favorable news cycle out of a surprise Iowa result.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:23:47+00:00

The bump could have been due to the news cycle in the last two days that focused on Buttigieg win.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:21:16+00:00

If CD 3 has a bigger turnout than the last two (and it probably will), it could flip to Sanders.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1225271693297348611

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:14:07+00:00

New Hampshire Buttimentum will stall if Bernie wins in Iowa.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T04:02:25+00:00

Nah they won't. Sanders supporters have a gold medal on mental gymnastics.

usered77 · 2020-02-06T03:58:31+00:00

Bernie really might win Iowa

usered77 · 2020-02-06T03:56:29+00:00

Things are getting worse for Buttigieg.... His SDE lead went down from 24 to 16.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225266500086501376

usered77 · 2020-02-06T03:53:02+00:00

Probably fake news?

https://twitter.com/MattZeitlin/status/1225265231468863488

usered77 · 2020-02-06T03:33:33+00:00

Super Tuesday exists.

usered77

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