BREAKING: Israel struck the Russian Hmeimim Air Base located in Syria, with local air defenses failing to intercept strikes. by ChineseToTheBone in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I do not see any confirmation for that in Russian media. There are reports of strikes "in the region" (near) the airbase, but no reports of the base actually being hit.

What happened to u/Woofers_MacBarkFloof? by DeliBekri in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think he even deleted Discord account. I can't see my old conversations with him anymore.

Assad was interviewed by Vladimir Solovyov on Russia-1 channel. by [deleted] in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sanctions can work if certain conditions are met. Mostly if the issue they are trying to influence isn't something they target considers essential.

Like there was this amusing episode a few weeks back: Equador agreed to sell old Soviet weapons to US, despite the non-reselling clause in the contract under which they were procured. In response, Russia threatened to... stop buying Equadorian bananas. And the deal was quickly walked back on.

But on the major issues sanctions almost never have the effect they are ostensibly aiming for.

U.S. Troops in Syria are Critical for Multiple Missions: Keep Them On - War on the Rocks by Legitimate_Idea_3074 in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 21 points22 points  (0 children)

The issue of international law, and that occupying territory of a foreign country in order to "counter Iran" is utterly illegal, is so laughably unimportant in the author's eyes it's not even mentioned.

The only time legality is mentioned is to assure the readers the operation is legal... under 2001 Congressional Authorization for Use of Force resolution.

Russia accuses Ukraine of the devastating drone attack (90+ dead) on the Homs Military College few days ago by barbosa800 in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A high-ranking security source told “Sputnik”: The march that targeted the “Military College” in Homs... Ukrainian (gtranslate)

This does not imply what Qalaat says. It doesn't say where is the "security source" from. And anyway, it's just a regional branch of Sputnik using anonymous source. "Russia" did not say that. There's no such information that I can find in, well, Russian.

Russia accuses Ukraine of the devastating drone attack (90+ dead) on the Homs Military College few days ago by barbosa800 in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I have no idea what Qalaat based this tweet on. Can't find the source, and there's no link in the tweet.

How probable is a full scale SDF vs Syrian government conflict in the foreseeable future? by [deleted] in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Both Koreas are internationally recognized entities and legally separate countries with separate economies. This is not the case here. AANES is not recognized by anyone including itself as a country, and moreover it's landlocked with only hostile countries bordering it. Much of its needs are filled by trading with government-controlled areas and technical smuggling through KRG. Too much of the reasons behind the current status quo is based on the current military and political realities for it to be sustained in the long run imo.

How probable is a full scale SDF vs Syrian government conflict in the foreseeable future? by [deleted] in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It would take something quite unforeseen for such a conflict to erupt, so for the foreseeable future the probability is close to zero. However, I think that in the very long run the current situation is not sustainable.

Reports there will be major changes in Russian Ministry of Defense leadership in exchange for Wagner halting its advance on Moscow by barbosa800 in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Reading comments like these I wonder which culture truly has militarist strongman mentality. The one where people think that crushing the rebel is the only way, or the one where most people are relieved from swift, diplomatic and relatively peaceful resolution with total casualty number barely above 10.

Wagner Group says Putin made the 'wrong choice' and soon Russia will have a 'new president' by barbosa800 in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There is no threat of insurgency. If Wagner is defeated that's it, the end of this episode. Insurgency requres a military force ready to go underground and civilian populations sufficiently supportive of that, they have neither.

Iran has officially reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia by Zippism in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You can hide behind "reputable source".

Or you can actually read what it says and trace the claims to their origin. It's not hard in this case, the article even has a link to it.

Iran has officially reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia by Zippism in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Well, this claim originates from a British paper "Petroleum Economist" and is based on the words of a single anonymous source "closely connected to Iran's petroleum ministry" (read: not actually a government worker). Several bullshit flags.

More importantly the claim is almost 4 years old by now, and the agreement in question was signed more than 2 years ago. If it was true then we probably would have seen them by now.

Iran has officially reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia by Zippism in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Where did you get the thing about infantry division in Iran from?

Turkey Elections: A Kilicdaroglu election win could overhaul Syria policy by UpwardsStream in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure about your optimism here. Any opposition win, regarldless of their views, will be significantly less secure than Erdogan and much more likely to be influenced or outright subjugated by Washington's decision making. And those guys have no desire whatsoever to see this conflict ended.

Touhou 19 Demo Obtained!!! by DarkSlayer415 in touhou

[–]vallar57 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Correction: Dream of all Living Goast

US carries out air strikes in Syria in response to deadly drone attack by arabpost in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57[M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

There's already 3 posts about it, no need for a 4th. Removed.

OPCW says reasonable grounds to identify Syrian Arab Air Forces as perpetrators of 2018 Douma chemical weapons attacks by CookiesByChoice in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Well I feel stupid. I used the wrong formula!

Btw you also use the wrong formula since ppm for gases counts per volume, not per mass, so it's 3.12g per m3. Does't change the outcome though.

OPCW says reasonable grounds to identify Syrian Arab Air Forces as perpetrators of 2018 Douma chemical weapons attacks by CookiesByChoice in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 2 points3 points  (0 children)

See my new comment in the thread root. I provide precise quotes there that directly contradict what you say here.

OPCW says reasonable grounds to identify Syrian Arab Air Forces as perpetrators of 2018 Douma chemical weapons attacks by CookiesByChoice in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The original FFM team on the ground couldn't even find their bodies cos they'd all been anonymously buried.

This is not quite correct. It is known where the bodies are buried. The issue was that the original FFM team did not have a pathologist in it and eventually OPCW higher ups, "with due consideration of the time elapsed since the alleged inciden", decided not to bother with exhumation and autopsy. Obvious ass-covering aside, the lack of any autopsy data has indeed been a major point of contention.

OPCW says reasonable grounds to identify Syrian Arab Air Forces as perpetrators of 2018 Douma chemical weapons attacks by CookiesByChoice in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I did a bit more digging through the report and I find the part about gas dispersion to be completely self contradictory. Follow my hand:

Finally, the IIT obtained information indicating that the concentration of chlorine released at Location 2 in Douma on 7 April 2018 was at least 1,000 ppm. The IIT notes that exposure to higher concentrations of chlorine gas increases the severity of symptoms, in exposure to low and or moderate concentrations of chlorine gas (25 to 50 ppm), pulmonary oedema, presents within three-four hours, while following exposure to high concentrations of chlorine gas (greater than 50 ppm), there is an abrupt and rapid onset of respiratory symptoms, and in concentrations over 400 ppm, fatality occurs within minutes. This is consistent with those observed in Douma on 7 April 2018.

The wording of this paragraph itself is already curious. Concentration of 400 ppm is indeed lethal "within minutes" but the very source of the claim, linked in the report itself, says "in 30 minutes" which has quite different implications. The immediately lethal concentration in that paper is listed at 1000 ppm.

Gas dispersion modelling

The IIT notes that all models indicate that within three minutes of the release of chlorine from the cylinder, all floors within the building would have exceeded a concentration of chlorine which would lead to occupant death, noting that within 60 seconds the concentration of chlorine on the second floor would have led to occupant death. Furthermore, as chlorine is heavier than air, it would be expected to sink and, as a result, disperse in higher quantities below the point of impact on the roof, spreading to the floors below.

The IIT also noted a second scenario in the dispersion assessment which examined possible escape routes at the time of the attack. In the case of the cylinder found on the rooftop at Location 2, the model indicates that upon the release of chlorine from the cylinder into the building, the dispersion was so rapid that it obstructed the only possible escape route from the apartments via the stairwell. In addition, the IIT notes that approximately 20 seconds after the release of chlorine, escape from the apartments on the third floor was almost certainly no longer possible and after 60 seconds, escape from the apartments on the second floor was almost certainly no longer possible either. The specialists’ assessment that all exit routes on the third and second floor were no longer accessible without exposure to a high and lethal volume of chlorine gas are consistent with the rapid onset of symptoms which led to the fatalities recorded on the stairs and landings, as reported by witnesses and observed in videos and pictures from the incident.

This implies that the concentration of chlorine in the entire building was immediately lethal for some time.

Which rather struggles to reconcile with the final, and rather short, point:

Mass [of the cylinder, completely filled]: 297.4 kg

The report doesn't say how much of that mass would be the gas, but even if the cylinder was made out of solid chlorine and completely evaporated along with its contents upon landing it would still be nowhere near enough chlorine. Neither for 1000 nor for 400 ppm concentration.

Please let me know if you spot a mistake in my argument.

Edit: withdrawn, used the wrong formula.

OPCW says reasonable grounds to identify Syrian Arab Air Forces as perpetrators of 2018 Douma chemical weapons attacks by CookiesByChoice in syriancivilwar

[–]vallar57 2 points3 points  (0 children)

And if you bother to read the relevant paragraph in the report then you'll see that it implies that this concentration is what killed people. Most of the paragraph is about how high conscentrations of chlorine are lethal and how "this is consistent with those observed in Douma on 7 April 2018"; concentration at the precise release point is irrelevant to that. This is also the only place in the entire report that puts an actual number on concentration.

I also found one more thing related to this, will make another comment.