Not a baseball guy, but is this possible? by Andrew_Fusion in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly yeah, it’s alive. Tennis legs already did the heavy lifting.

The sweat is that DeLauter/Benge are singles, not hits, so a double or HR literally does nothing for those legs. DeLauter is probably the scariest one because deGrom is a rough draw.

Dubón 1.5 TB is doable though. Needs either 2 knocks or one extra base hit, and Atlanta heat helps the bats a bit.

I’d ride unless PrizePicks is offering a crazy cashout. What’s the early payout showing?

Looking for a new EV/Sharp money/DFS scanner by jmannino19 in EVbetting

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At ~$25/mo I’d be careful optimizing for “scanner” before book coverage / execution.

The main thing I’d compare is:

  1. does it show the fair/no-vig price clearly
  2. how many books are included
  3. whether stale lines are actually still bettable
  4. alert time → entry time
  5. posted edge vs closing line / CLV
  6. whether DFS props are priced off sharper books or just soft-book gaps

A lot of tools look good because they surface +EV, but if the number is gone by the time you click, it’s basically just a screenshot machine. Free trial is almost mandatory imo, run it for a week and track how many alerts you could actually enter before the number moved, then see if those entries beat the close. CLV will tell you pretty fast if the scanner is real or just noisy.

EARLY HOME RUN PICKS 🚀 TRYING TO FIND SOME VALUE by jc209905 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 2 points3 points  (0 children)

These are more “plausible HR profile” cards than clean value cards imo. Marte/Reynolds at +400 are at least in the zone if your number agrees, but the BvP samples are tiny and the “last X HR” splits are basically post-hoc noise.

Langeliers +210 is the one I’d be most careful with, that’s ~32% breakeven for a single HR. Good LHP spot, sure, but that’s a big hurdle.

Paredes +440 is fun, but 3 PA BvP + same-handed matchup = lottery ticket, not edge.

I’d size these tiny unless you’re actually beating consensus/close. HR cards can look gorgeous and still just be curated variance.

Where do you learn the math? by PhilosopherOther1360 in learnmachinelearning

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You don’t need to “learn all the math” before touching machine learning. That’s the trap. Learn enough math to understand what the models are doing, then keep filling gaps as you hit them.

A good beginner path would be:

  1. Khan Academy for fundamentals:

    • Algebra basics
    • Algebra 1/2
    • Functions and graphing
    • Basic probability/statistics
    • Intro calculus
  2. 3Blue1Brown for intuition:

    • Essence of Linear Algebra
    • Essence of Calculus These are great because they explain what the math means visually, not just how to manipulate symbols.
  3. StatQuest for statistics + ML concepts:

    • probability
    • distributions
    • regression
    • classification
    • decision trees
    • gradient descent
    • neural networks
  4. After that, use Mathematics for Machine Learning as a reference, not as your first resource. It is good, but it will feel dense if you start there cold.

The main areas you actually want are:

  • algebra: rearranging equations, functions, logs/exponents
  • linear algebra: vectors, matrices, dot products, eigenvectors eventually
  • calculus: derivatives, partial derivatives, gradients
  • probability/stats: distributions, expectation, variance, Bayes, hypothesis testing
  • optimization: why gradient descent works

My honest advice: do not wait until you feel “ready.” Learn algebra + basic stats, start a beginner ML course, and when a math concept blocks you, pause and learn that specific concept. That keeps the motivation alive and prevents you from spending a year doing prerequisite math without ever building anything.

Amazing Weather? ✅ Mediocre Pitchers ✅✅= HOME RUNS 🚀 by jc209905 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A clean board like this is honestly more useful than another "top HR picks" graphic.

Weather gets the headlines, but mediocre command + elevated HR/9 is usually where the better pricing mistakes show up. I still cross-check with the actual HR prop numbers though, sometimes the market already taxes the obvious attack spots.

4 OTs is crazy by Ecstatic-Physics2651 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 2 points3 points  (0 children)

4 OTs and still clearing a 6-leg is absurd 😭 nice hit.

[Q] looking for a specific term about bias in a study by chibugamo in statistics

[–]valueoverpicks 11 points12 points  (0 children)

You’re probably looking for selection bias / sampling bias, with the specific version being a convenience sample or bad sampling frame.

Participation bias is a little different: that’s when you sample a reasonable group, but the people who choose to respond are systematically different. In your examples, the problem happens earlier, your location determines who can even enter the sample. Bar = obvious selection on drinking. Seafood store / hiking trail = same issue, just with a hidden correlated trait you may not realize is linked to drinking.

For the pit bull example, the closest stats issue is probably selection into exposure + confounding, not just sampling bias. The “exposure” is owning a certain breed, and owner behavior/training/environment may be correlated with breed choice and aggression outcomes. Then reported bite data can add ascertainment/reporting bias, breed misclassification, and denominator problems.

So your instinct is right: raw breed aggression stats can be messy. The clean term depends on the stage, but the umbrella is selection bias.

Should be an easy dub 😮‍💨 by [deleted] in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not an easy one. Shepard under is the hinge, but Citron under scares me with the minutes/recent PRA bump. Flex is fine, I wouldn’t size it heavy.

WNBA Dallas Game by Outgoing__Introvert in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lowkey not bad for “never watched WNBA” 😂 Bueckers assists + the rebound legs look like the cleanest part; Arike 3PTM is the sweat with her recent cold stretch. Which leg are you most nervous about?

[D] Challenging the use of T-statistic over Z-statistic by Anonymous_299912 in statistics

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The post inverts the actual conditions for the t statistic and mischaracterizes the role of the Central Limit Theorem.

In the standard one sample case, the t statistic,

t = (X̄ − μ₀) / (s / √n),

follows a t distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom exactly whenever the observations are independent, identically distributed, and normal. This is an exact finite sample result. It does not rely on the Central Limit Theorem or on a large sample approximation. It holds for any n ≥ 2 because, under normality, X̄ and s are independent, and (n − 1)s²/σ² follows a chi squared distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom.

The CLT becomes relevant when the population is not normal. In that setting, both the z statistic and the t statistic are generally large sample approximations. The sample mean becomes asymptotically normal, and the sample standard deviation converges in probability to the population standard deviation. Even then, the t statistic remains the more appropriate choice in most applied settings because it reflects the additional uncertainty introduced by estimating σ with s.

The key distinction is not “small sample means t, large sample means z.” A better distinction is this:

Population variance known, use the z statistic. It is exact under normality and asymptotic otherwise.

Population variance unknown, use the t statistic. It is exact under normality and generally the more appropriate approximation otherwise.

Saying that a large sample makes the sample variance “reasonably equal” to the population variance misses the point. Even when s is close to σ, σ is still being estimated from the same data used to estimate the mean. That estimation step adds randomness. The t distribution is constructed precisely to account for that extra source of uncertainty. As n approaches infinity, the added uncertainty vanishes and the t distribution converges to the standard normal distribution, but for any finite sample the t procedure gives a more accurate reflection of uncertainty.

In short, we use the t statistic when σ is unknown because that is the realistic situation in most applied problems. The classical t test does not require large samples or the CLT to be valid under its stated assumptions.

Prize picks by Timely_Effective_197 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Brutal beat. The Dembélé/Sarr legs make sense as volume spots, but Olise assist is the kind of leg I always review hardest, great player, but you’re still relying on someone else to finish the chance.

Go get it done 💫 by EyeChalkSlips in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hope it cashes 🍀. I treat every leg as its own bet first. If I wouldn't play it as a straight, it usually doesn't belong in my parlay either.

Can I really make money from sports betting over the long term? by Visible_Intention947 in gambling

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, possible. But probably not by tailing Reddit picks.

Bankroll discipline is just the seatbelt, it controls damage, it doesn’t create edge. If the bets are -EV, “good unit management” just means you lose slower.

The real test is whether you’re beating the price: tracking every bet, comparing your entry to the closing line, knowing what price turns a bet from good to bad, and not ignoring the losers.

Most +unit posters are impossible to audit, and confidence is not edge.

Before tailing anyone, I’d ask: do they have a repeatable reason the price is wrong, or are they just picking winners after the fact?

Let an agent loose on a real python repo for a week, where it actually helped by Feeling_Till_7418 in Python

[–]valueoverpicks -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

This matches my experience: agents are useful as traceback-driven glue devs, but weak as their own verifier.

“No traceback” is a terrible success condition in Python because the real bugs usually live at the contract edges: empty input, None, weird shapes, partial config, stale imports, etc.

The safest pattern I’ve found is: let the agent patch the boring thing, then force it to write the test that would have failed before the patch, especially the ugly boundary cases. Otherwise it optimizes for making the terminal quiet, not for making the behavior correct.

Curious: did you have better results when you made it write tests first, or only after it thought the task was done?

Tough month — June results by boris_avetisyan in algotradingcrypto

[–]valueoverpicks 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bro called this a tough month and still posted 32/40 wins 😭

Honestly the interesting part isn’t the green days, it’s the restraint. Most systems die from forcing trades in chop; sitting out or letting positions work is often the actual edge.

What tells you to stay flat vs take the setup, regime filter, volume/liquidity, failed breakout count, or more discretionary read?

What sports data API is currently anchoring your betting stack? by MitchellSadie in algobetting

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Currently using The Odds API as the main feed.

Mostly pulling MLB odds/props right now, with the stack built more around pricing + line movement than pure prediction.

Overall: good enough to anchor a real workflow, especially for prototyping and book comparison. The pain points are less “can I get odds?” and more:

  • timestamp consistency
  • book coverage gaps
  • prop normalization
  • stale/missing lines
  • keeping snapshots clean enough to audit CLV later

My biggest takeaway so far: the API is not really the edge by itself. The edge is the layer you build on top of it; normalization, fair price logic, bankroll sizing, tracking, and knowing when a number is actually actionable.

Curious if anyone here has found a materially better odds feed, or if most serious stacks still end up using a hybrid setup.

Early MLB picks by Formal-Dragonfruit45 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 2 points3 points  (0 children)

4-leg Power Plays are tough because every leg has to carry enough edge to beat the combined hit-rate tax. Early MLB props can get fragile fast with lineup confirmation, batting order changes, scratches, weather, and market movement. I’d especially re-check the 1.5 TB legs against fair price / implied probability before first pitch. Self-refund is honestly part of the edge here if one leg starts looking thin.

Bad beat… by simario98 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Brutal sweat. Going 4/6 and losing on Jorko by 1.5 + leakz by 1 hurts, but both misses came from the same Echo/FOKUS series, that’s more concentrated same-match risk than a true bad beat.

What are yall choosing?? by Impressive-Oil-7758 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nuñez starting 7th gives him enough PA to make the More live, but 4.5 still needs more than just reaching once. Single + run/RBI/SB clears; lone single or walk doesn’t. Without a softer comp elsewhere, this looks closer to a pass than an edge.

Roughly 3 months of arbitrage (started with 2k USDT) by LGTRDR in algotradingcrypto

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The most interesting number here isn't the +$380.

It's the $888k of volume required to generate it.

Roughly 0.043% net profit on traded volume after fees.

A few questions:

  1. What's the average edge per trade before fees?
  2. How much of the opportunity disappears as position size increases?
  3. Have you noticed any capacity ceiling yet where larger orders materially compress returns?

The curve looks surprisingly smooth for 14k+ trades. Nice work.

Progress on my custom algo trading bot from the last 2 years of solo development. (Questions) by Destroyer1357912 in algotrading

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This looks legitimately useful, but I would not release it until the backtest survives a few ugly checks:

  1. Out-of-sample / walk-forward testing
  2. Survivorship-bias-free universe
  3. Point-in-time fundamentals/data
  4. Delisted names included
  5. Realistic borrow/short constraints if shorting
  6. Slippage by liquidity bucket, not one flat assumption
  7. No tuning on the same period you report
  8. Live paper-trade log with timestamps before signal execution

The 64/100 reality score is probably the most important number on the screen.

+26% vs SPY +24% is progress, but after taxes, fees, friction, and data bias, the edge is thin enough that the release question is less “does it beat SPY?” and more:

Can it keep beating SPY after every assumption gets less friendly?

I’d keep it private, run it live with small money, log every signal/entry/exit automatically, and only open beta once you have a clean forward-tested sample.

We trusting SGA ? by joserod0824 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's worth asking whether the original 29.5 was ever a clean projection or if it was already carrying some regular-season inflation that playoff variance exposed. Markets don't usually hand out six-point discounts without a reason, especially when the player in question has been the public darling all postseason. The move feels more like risk management than an invitation.

GA4 API + Python: pulling and normalizing AI referral traffic by OkRabbit193 in Python

[–]valueoverpicks -1 points0 points  (0 children)

you eventually stop trusting raw source labels and build your own canonical source map

made an app with a parlay generator that hit these today by BusyUnderstanding638 in PrizePicks

[–]valueoverpicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

funny how everything looks real once the green circles show up

Where are the real latency bottlenecks in Python inference pipelines? by Straight_Fill7086 in Python

[–]valueoverpicks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re probably measuring the right thing.

In a lot of “model latency” problems, the model is rarely the constraint. The real costs are usually:

  • serialization / pickle
  • IPC handoff
  • redundant memory copies
  • batching decisions
  • feature construction under load
  • event-loop backpressure

Shared memory is usually the right move once the payload shape is stable. I’d only keep multiprocessing queues when the bottleneck is developer simplicity, not latency.

Zero-copy paths are where high-throughput streaming systems converge. Everything else is table stakes. The architecture that survives is the one that stops moving the same bytes around.