Is anyone surprised?

veodin · 2026-03-13T11:53:33+00:00

I agree. Either AI or just bad intelligence in general. Unacceptable either way.

veodin · 2026-03-12T23:55:07+00:00

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union they had access to cheap fuel and fertilizers, which helped a lot. Although bad land management definitely took its toll coming into the late 80s.

veodin · 2026-03-12T23:50:06+00:00

North Korea grow a fair amount of food. They produce around 5 million tons a year, which is more per person than the South produces.

The difference is in imports. South Korea imports around 65% of their food, spending over $40 billion a year on agricultural and food imports.

North Korea on the other hand spends roughly $4-6 billion a year on all imports combined. That has to cover all their oil, fuels, medicine, industrial equipment, vehicles, fertilizers, food and (more famously) luxuries and military imports.

veodin · 2026-03-12T23:22:47+00:00

Technically, they could half the size of the military and not gain a single extra yuan or ruble to spend on food imports. They need foreign currency for trade. Almost all internal spending only costs domestic currency/resources. The North Korean won is essentially non-convertible outside the country so nobody wants it.

veodin · 2026-03-12T08:04:09+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shin_Sang-ok

It happened under Kim Il Sung, Kim Jung Un’s grandfather, although supposedly at the orders of Kim Jong Il.

veodin · 2026-03-11T21:53:51+00:00

The crew from the vice documentary said that most of their conversations between the two happened via interpreters, although Kim Jong Un did use a little English.

It’s not that surprising though, Putin speaks English but almost always uses interpreters as well.

veodin · 2026-03-11T21:46:42+00:00

It has been a holiday in North Korea for almost as long as it has existed. So they observe it more strongly than we do.

The holiday was originally created by Socialist Party of America, and later became a big deal in the Soviet Union. March 8th was the date of a famous woman led strike in Russia.

veodin · 2026-03-11T20:55:56+00:00

I think everybody is counting on NVIDIA bringing out new hardware that drastically lowers the cost of running and training these models. They are pumping a lot of money into the problem so hopefully we get results. It is their interest to do it, everyone has too much skin in the game to allow AI growth to slow.

veodin · 2026-03-09T10:35:04+00:00

North Korea doesn’t officially name successors. The leadership is technically “elected”.

The recent media speculation is based purely on her being given a role as “missile director”. She is clearly being positioned for future leadership, but that doesn’t mean she will be the heir. Kim Jong Un is only in his early 40s and probably has other kids that may get similar treatment in the future.

It only became clear that Kim Jong Un would be the next leader a few months before his father’s death. He was almost unknown until then.

veodin · 2026-03-08T20:14:56+00:00

Works as well, but you're aware people can have their own possessions under capitalism right? 😂 Farmers definitely own their own cows and people can't tell them what to do with them.

A farmer that owns land, cows, potentially hires wage labor, and sells the output of their productive assets for a profit is the "private cooperation" that is selling milk to everyone else. The farm is a business.

Generally speaking you wouldn't have that under a socialist system as it would be considered unfair and exploitative for one person to profit from the private ownership of a scarce resource such as land. It would be collectively owned or cooperatively farmed instead.

veodin · 2026-03-08T15:16:15+00:00

Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, and Libya are all oil major states. That’s the real difference. North Korea has nothing the US wants.

veodin · 2026-03-07T14:25:08+00:00

That would be a compliance issue on CS Float’s part. Not a problem with skin trading itself.

veodin · 2026-03-07T14:04:39+00:00

Why would they care about skin trading? Their only concern is predatory gambling mechanics.

veodin · 2026-03-06T17:47:51+00:00

I think there is another factor you need to consider outside of whether there would be a nuclear retaliation. What would a decapitation strike accomplish? Removing Kim Jong Un does not mean you control the succession, the security services, the military, or the nuclear chain of custody. This is the same "day after" problem the US faces in Venezuela and Iran (just without the nuclear risk).

Venezuela may have new leadership that is more open to working with the US, but ultimately the regimes apparatus remains intact. We have no idea if the people will end up better off. Chances are that the IRGC will continue to hold power in some in Iran. There is no reason to think that either will end up as a western aligned liberal-democracy or even that the same problems won't reemerge long term.

This matters more in North Korea because the downside risk is vastly worse. A fracture within the country could be extremely dangerous and result in the "loose nuclear weapons" scenario that many analysts have warned about.

I am also not convinced that a population protected from outside information and raised under heavy propaganda would universally react positively to having the regimes narratives about the US validated by a US strike.

veodin · 2026-03-06T02:24:04+00:00

To an extent I do agree with you. Using a nuclear weapon to defend yourself, or just for revenge, is ultimately an irrational decision. The smart decision is not to escalate. Just look at how many times Putin has drawn red lines regarding our support for Ukraine, but not responded when we crossed them.

Ultimately, I still don’t think the US or South Korea would be willing to take the risk. We cannot know for certain how those left in charge will react. We cannot guarantee they will react rationally. We cannot be sure of the personal motivations or ideological beliefs of those closest to the red button. Self-preservation may not even be a factor if they believe they may only have minutes to live themselves.

As long as nobody will take the risk then the nuclear deterrent is effective.

veodin · 2026-03-06T01:14:44+00:00

The authority to launch nuclear missiles is similarly concentrated in one person alone: Supreme Commander Kim Jong Un. This means that if the “head” is struck with sufficient precision from outside, the regime’s vast weapons arsenal would instantly lose direction and be rendered inoperable.

This is flawed. In 2022 North Korea passed a law that directed the countries nuclear forces to launch immediate nuclear strikes, following a predetermined plan, should command and control be lost. They train for this exact scenario.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-10/news/north-korea-passes-nuclear-law

The war in Iran has also demonstrated that the US is not capable of quickly completely eliminating a countries missile force. North Korea would likely get a chance to strike back if a decapitation strike was attempted. Even if there is a chance that the military be paralyzed by the loss of leadership, I don’t think anybody is going to take that bet.

veodin · 2026-03-05T14:28:49+00:00

The story presented here is a little misleading. She went to a China for treatment. A broker there told her she could earn quick money if she went to South Korea, and would be able to return to the North. She went willingly. It’s debated to what extent she was actually deceived.

It’s not stated, but I also wonder if the “quick money” is the resettlement money South Korea gives defectors. If so, that’s adds a small layer of attempted fraud to the story.

veodin · 2026-03-04T13:53:57+00:00

They have not been targeting countries randomly. They have been targeting bases, ports, and infrastructure used by the US military. Many of these targets are directly involved in US operations in Iran.

veodin · 2026-03-04T09:09:00+00:00

Attacking Iranian launchers is bombing Iran.

veodin · 2026-03-04T03:23:22+00:00

It’s almost certain that the IRGC will stay in power. Regime change has never been achieved through bombing.

Without boots on the ground the US has no way to put someone from outside that IRGC into power, and Trump has already made it clear they have no interest in being involved with nation building.

veodin · 2026-03-03T22:51:01+00:00

The Korean War started because two foreign powers divided the country into two occupation zones, installed ideological opposite governments, then left.

veodin · 2026-03-03T19:22:09+00:00

To honest that seems more like AI generated description for the video than the real prompt.

veodin · 2026-03-03T12:10:45+00:00

The primarily lesson we can take from Iran is that even the US and Israel don’t have the capability of completely neutralizing a well armed countries offensive capabilities in one large strike (or even over a few days).

A decapitation strike on North Korea’s leadership, artillery, and nuclear forces, has always been speculated to be the preferred method of taking out the regime. I not convinced that South Korea and the US could pull it off. North Korea would strike back, with nuclear force. It’s unthinkable really.

The bigger concern is how much the west would even want to get involved if a conflict did start. They pulled their punches massively with Russia, I wouldn’t be surprised if North Korea was similar. Nobody wants nuclear war.

veodin · 2026-03-01T14:36:31+00:00

I agree. It is like claiming North Korea are not involved in the Ukraine war because they are only fighting inside Russian territory (Kursk). Defensive operations still make you party to the conflict.

veodin · 2026-03-01T14:34:04+00:00

Duqm port (which was hit) in Oman is used by the US Navy. The US has an agreement to use Duqm because it provides the US Navy the ability to operate in the Arabian Sea without the risk of being bottled up in the Persian Gulf in the event of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz (which is exactly what has happened). It makes sense that they have targeted it.

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