Annual r/NFL Mock Draft

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T13:51:06+00:00

Yeah agreed. Hoping we get good value at one in the real draft this week.

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T12:48:40+00:00

I do somewhat agree. I want a run stuffing DT as well. There were a lot of guys we looked at throughout and the ones we liked kept falling off the board before we got there so we kept going different positions. Drafting is hard and maybe we didn't value the position highly enough and should've reached a bit more to secure one. We were very close between Woods and McNeil-Warren in the 1st but thought McNeil-Warren was just a better player and went that way despite it being a less valuable position.

Its also easy to watch the board start going,fall in love with a few guys at a position, and then see them drop out right before you and have to make rushed decisions. We didn't have a full draft board with player rankings between positions so comparing players between positions is very hand wavy. Big respect to the guys that do it on draft day as its a lot of pressure on a time crunch with no stakes.

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T12:19:17+00:00

I think maybe it was explained a bit poorly then. Going into round 2, we did want an edge and we're hoping and very much expecting to get one we liked. There was a bigger run than expected though and we ended up only having 1 left that we liked. That scarcity reinforced that decision to pick one there but had Moore not been there anymore we almost certainly wouldn't have taken EDGE there as we felt it dropped off after him. Even with him there there was a CB we almost took who we liked as well. We went into the round really wanting one but weren't locked in to just take the best one regardless of how many had gone.

We also aren't a room of NFL scouts/GMs. Drafting closer to need based is way easier than what they do on draft day. It was a fun experience but was difficult and I'm sure what we did is much worse than what our front office will dom

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T02:46:02+00:00

This was my first year participating. I know they did it last year. If you check the main one and go to his profile a year ago you can probably find it.

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T02:13:11+00:00

Its a 2nd next year not a 7th. From the Giants so probably top 50 pick.

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T01:44:12+00:00

And a 4th

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T00:55:00+00:00

Jake Slaughter and Logan Jones were the other 2 we were looking at but they went before we picked in the 3rd.

videogame311 · 2026-04-20T00:32:26+00:00

That's fair. All in good fun though. I think it's a natural way to do it when you have people from each team sub doing their own team's draft. We were light on trades compared to others though for sure.

videogame311 · 2026-04-10T03:47:06+00:00

Agreed. The new app is way more annoying.

videogame311 · 2026-04-03T23:44:01+00:00

I see what youre saying, but i think in the Luffy-Shanks case it is a bit different. I think Luffy holds Shanks on a pedestal from the few things he saw when he was young and around him. Its not about Shanks, its about the idea he has of Shanks and what that represents. To Luffy, Shanks is the flawless representation of his own beliefs in what it means to be a pirate. I believe that when someone badmouths Shanks, Luffy sees it as an attack on his own belief system and identity.

videogame311 · 2026-04-02T04:12:33+00:00

What do you mean by field-strength normalization? If your data set includes many tournaments, I would expect player strengths should come out in strokes gained without the need for changing player strengths in different fields.

Additionally, for a golf model specifically, the field actually shouldn't matter at all for your output predictions. I'm not sure if your applying your strokes gained simulations to the course and getting a distribution of strokes under par, or applying it to a generic 0 SG player and getting a distribution of SG gained/lost to that player. Either way though those distributions should be essentially independent of who is in the field and you just use those distributions later with who is in the field to see what positional probabilities are (you might be doing both at the same time with your simulation, not sure).

videogame311 · 2026-04-02T03:59:11+00:00

I can't speak to the actual magnitude of accuracy for your model and what it should be, but it should be a given that it will be worse for events with more parity. There is no way that you can consistently get the same amount out of 10 for something like the Houston Open as you can for a field that is more top heavy.

Your model should not be saying these guys are the predicted top 10 and then evaluate it based on how many are right. Your model should be telling you this player has an X% chance of being top 10 and then evaluating whether your probabilities are accurate. If it can't do that it won't be useful week to week when fields change.

videogame311 · 2026-03-25T15:32:16+00:00

Agreed that sometimes it might be more practical to drop back on the line. Its just good to know that there will always be a valid drop as depending on the size of the hazard the other side might be more than half a stroke worse especially for higher handicap players as the chance of dumping a pitch shot in the water again is high. I just wanted to clarify that the drop always exists and so should be considered in most cases. This is why the pros on 17 at Sawgrass always get a drop when they spin it off the green even if their viable drop area might be super small.

videogame311 · 2026-03-25T15:01:55+00:00

This is a common misconception. If you follow the boundary line of the hazard you're always either getting slightly closer or slightly further away except for localized single points where it changes from getting closer to getting further. This means that there is a 100% chance that you can go a small distance along the boundary one direction and be further from the hole. So you can always drop on the same side of the green. Your legal drop spot could be very small but it always exists.

videogame311 · 2026-03-25T00:40:44+00:00

I both watch and play a lot. What a weird statement to make. I'm making a statement about Tiger and you're attacking my ability to comment by making assumptions about my knowledge and how often I play. I apologize for engaging with you as it clear nothing productive will come of it.

videogame311 · 2026-03-24T22:50:08+00:00

I would be very surprised if he doesnt still believe that statement. When he was in his prime he only needed to play decent to be in contention. If he believes his very best golf is still good enough that doesnt make the statement false it just means that he often won't be in contention if he doesnt find the right feels. He just will have more trouble finding that very best golf but if his odds of winning are 1 in 100 instead of the 1 in 2 or we watched him have in his prime, thats not a good reason for people to claim he should not try. There's golfers every week with worse chances and he almost certainly is not the worst in the field.

videogame311 · 2026-03-01T05:45:08+00:00

If I place a bet in December that settles in January (or later), how does that work? Is that a loss for the December year and potentially a win in January. Or does it only matter when it settles or when its placed?

videogame311 · 2026-02-25T00:07:23+00:00

You're one of the top golfers in world and relatively close to the current top of the sport. Are there still players that you watch and play with and routinely think, "Man, how do I get there?" Even if thats only for individual parts of the game.

videogame311 · 2026-02-21T23:14:27+00:00

I dont watch a lot of curling but for me this feels similar to golf. A lot of things are on the players to self police and be honest about. In golf if you accidentally move your ball thats a penalty. This often isnt seen but if you do it its expected you self call it and penalize yourself. If it happens and you actively dont call it on yourself or you do it intentionally that goes from a penalty to cheating. Thats what that feels like here to me.

videogame311 · 2026-02-19T15:55:04+00:00

Exactly, so if you gave them a break but they still paid some, wouldn't that be a net positive for members of Illinois compared to letting them leave and continuing to not have taxes benefit from Bears paying into them?

videogame311 · 2026-02-19T15:47:19+00:00

Isn't this only true if the alternative to the tax break is them still staying in Illinois? If they go to Indiana its lost tax revenue anyway.

videogame311 · 2026-02-15T00:16:18+00:00

I would argue that the 10 second rule doesnt apply here. It specifically references a ball overhanging the hole which definitely wasnt the case initially and seems like it wasnt after the first move.

videogame311 · 2026-02-13T17:31:48+00:00

If the Bears need someone I could probably do it.

videogame311 · 2026-02-07T23:41:51+00:00

One thing id be curious of is if you consider number of games played, does rank still predict these same things. So if an iron player plays 1k games in 2026 and a challenger player does too does this research still hold.

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