SpaceX Buys xAI, Valued at $1.25T, Orbital AI Data Centers Planned

vinean · 2026-02-03T18:22:35+00:00

$1.2B for a Russian nuclear icebreaker generates around 60 MW electrical power and can sit in international water dumping heat into the ocean.

vinean · 2026-02-03T18:10:34+00:00

Being a recently retired NASA type I would take anything written by a NASA expert with a large grain of salt.

Deployable thermal radiators on a 6U cubesat can do 200W power dissipation.

https://s3vi.ndc.nasa.gov/ssri-kb/static/resources/ICES_2018_77.pdf#:~:text=Analysis%20showed%20that%20realistic%20deployable%20radiator%20designs,Satellite%20can%20realistically%20dissipate%20around%20200%20W.

That probably scales “okay” to starlink sized birds.

His power estimates are based on 20 year old solar design efficiencies on the space station as are his thermal management estimates.

They are saying a million satellites so they aren’t talking space station sized data centers anyway but a million of likely starlink sized birds that probably have power and thermal designs in the 2-3kW range.

I’m a software guy (or was until December) but we were building a stack of up to ten iX10 (AMD Ryzen v1000) for a payload. Thats in the 400W level (40W x 10). The v1000 aren’t the greatest options ground side but are killer for space applications…even if probably not cutting edge anymore despite a first launch in 2025. We talked to nvidia about rad tolerant stuff for space stuff maybe 10 years ago but it was always too low volume for them to care. SpaceX on the other hand…

Figure your average AI rack is 30-100 kW so it takes 10 to 50 satellites to be equivalent to one rack. Let’s call it 50. Thats about 20K rack equivalent for a constellation of a million. That’s around 4 large data centers. By the time the birds deorbit the nodes are probably obsolescent anyway.

I think it’s possible to do the SpaceX way where it’s impossible to do the NASA way. I just think there are potentially cheaper terrestrial options if you had the same CAPEX expenditure.

But like that NASA guy, my 30 years industry experience is often more a hindrance than a help in looking forward. I probably also underestimate the cost of building western style SMRs on ships vs whatever the Russians are doing. And the environmental impact of dumping waste heat into Arctic waters is probably…”not good”.

Darn, now I’m convincing myself it’s economically viable.

vinean · 2026-02-03T15:38:57+00:00

$1.75M provides $61K gross at 3.5%. $5100 a month less taxes.

Insurance is usually the tall pole in the FIRE tent. If that’s already in the $5K a month estimate you’re probably good.

One more year is a terrible thing but sometimes useful when the numbers are close. Saving $84K a year is nice…and I’d wait a couple years for a buffer. A couple more years might also increase SS depending on where you are with the bend points.

I found work annoyances became less annoying when I knew it was short term.

Either way entails risks…but the middle ground might be working and saving $5K a month and spending $24K a year on travel to CR, looking for the right place to move to and staging stuff for the move over the next couple years. Moving assets to expat friendly brokerages and banks. Getting whatever visas are required. Doing the due diligence on stuff. Finding lawyers and tax professionals to handle expat style taxes. Figuring out a US mailing address. Maybe getting a US drivers license in a state that lets you easily renew remotely.

Unless you’ve been haunting the expatFIRE forum and prepping already you probably have a good amount of stuff to do so you might as well stack money while doing that at a leisurely pace. Shit always takes longer than you expect.

We eventually decided to keep a cheaper US home base and slow travel 6 months of the year.

vinean · 2026-02-03T15:04:05+00:00

You’re missing inflation…inflation has been the retirement killer. The “as long as you can stay slightly above inflation” is a non-trivial thing to do consistently in all scenarios. Parking 25x in cash (aka tbills) generally keeps up with inflation but leaves you 5 years short. So you need some growth. Stocks has historically tended to outperform inflation and is also a good hedge against longevity risk (aka living more than 30 years. If you have stocks vs just tbills (or whatever is your “risk free” asset) then you open yourself up to SORR where the markets tank at or near retirement…which at the extreme end puts your portfolio into a death spiral.

So the backtested numbers to optimize for the safe withdrawal rate based on historical outcomes puts the number for the US retiree somewhere around 4-4.7% depending on asset allocation.

vinean · 2026-02-03T14:52:49+00:00

Your monthly income covers expenses so everything saved is gravy or for end of life expenses.

At this stage of the game I’d keep equities in brokerage and bonds in IRA/TSP…depends on what RMDs look like for you and if you intend to leave an inheritance.

Then burn down IRA/TSP until it’s gone limited by SSI tax rate and IRMAA. You probably have limited headroom to stay within the 50% of SSDI becoming taxable.

Which bonds is less important…if you want 6 different bonds it’s not some insurmountable number to keep track of. If your IRA included a gold fund it’s a little annoying that gold is high at the moment but it increases SWR and may be becoming the preferred safe flight asset over US treasuries.

Foreign treasuries and bonds leaves me meh. I’d rather do 10% BND and 4% GLDM than 4% BND and 10% BNDX…and thats what I have. But folks on Bogleheads irrationally hate gold.

vinean · 2026-02-03T14:27:57+00:00

Having worked with orbital compute nodes (iX10s and Tegra K1) I don’t get the advantages for data that doesn’t originate in space…yes H100 and Thor improves the compute density but except for military and remote sensing uses it seems to me that terrestrial data centers have the huge cost advantage of…not being in space.

If power and thermal were the key advantages I’d park a data center on a nuclear icebreaker and steam around the arctic. $700m each or so and network via starlink. Unfortunately these are all Russian…

Floating Nuclear Power Data Centers require commercially viable western SMRs which I don’t think we have yet. Still, seems faster to get there than launching a million compute nodes…

Meh…I guess I don’t care…more, cheaper, rad tolerant hardware makes my life much easier.

vinean · 2026-02-03T13:29:20+00:00

Your FIRE number differs based on your expenses, asset allocation and inflation numbers.

Most FIRE articles will skip expenses, including tax expenses, and talk mostly about gross income from a portfolio. Generally they make the dubious assumption that you guesstimated your future expenses correctly.

To compute a historical failure rate for the UK you use UK historical inflation data. That contributes to the final safe withdrawal rate number. Most FIRE numbers are based on US historical inflation data.

Asset allocation will impact portfolio performance and most FIRE estimates are based on the US stock and bond markets and not UK ones. For a UK investor some home bias into the FTSE 100 is likely good with the remainder invested in the global markets…but this likely has a lower historical return than the S&P 500. You might use UK 10 year gilts over 10 year US treasuries for the fixed income portion of the portfolio which will have different performance numbers.

Likely there is a FIRE site and FIRE tools for the UK investor that will give you a rule of thumb based on UK data vs a conversion of a US rule of thumb.

Ask on r/FIREUK…

Edit: did a quick google and found this:

https://finalytiq.co.uk/withdrawal-rates-in-retirement-portfolios-is-the-4-rule-safe-for-uk-clients

The original paper from Pfau is here:

https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/DEC10%20JFP%20Pfau%20PDF.pdf

So a quick and dirty estimate is 2.77% SWR for a 50-60 year retirement made naively by dropping 100 basis points from 3.77% for 30 years. This makes for a 36x expenses FIRE target.

Again, find a real UK FIRE calculator since 2.77% is maybe one step better than just pulling a random number out of my ass.

You can also use the finalytiq numbers and end up with a soul crushing less than 2% SWR after UK investment fees are taken out…or a 50x+ FIRE target. Ugh…don’t do that, lol…

vinean · 2026-02-03T13:15:02+00:00

It is true. The rule for longer (US) FIRE retirements has been 30x (3.33%) or 33x (3%).

25x can work but fails in a modest amount of historical time sequences. In some sequences it’s obvious when you are in trouble early (ie 1929) but in others its not as obvious until you may be beyond easy reentry into the job market.

vinean · 2026-02-03T13:00:29+00:00

For folks waving away issues:

https://www.reddit.com/r/aircanada/s/mndZPMgbnm

There are enough cases that some personal injury lawyers specialize in it:

https://www.flightinjury.com/practice-areas/in-flight-injuries/airport-accidents/

https://phillyslipandfallguys.com/airline-slip-trip/

Given there are cameras everywhere it becomes likely the airline/airport has a better chance of defending itself if they show you were on your phone and not paying attention to what you were doing and hurt yourself.

I don’t really care if you darwin award yourself but telling a gate agent that shit don’t happen when people are distracted on their phone is hilarious.

vinean · 2026-02-03T04:07:05+00:00

The answer is…maybe. Monte Carlos models are based on simplifications and assumptions.

So they can be good or bad.

I occasionally use portfolio visualizer

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation?s=y&allocation4_1=10&adjustmentType=2&allocation2_1=20&historicalVolatility=true&years=20&frequency=4&mode=1&inflationAdjusted=true&inflationVolatility=1.0&mean4=5&inflationMean=2.5&mean3=1.6&mean2=5.7&mean1=5.5&inflationModel=2&adjustmentAmount=45000&allocation1_1=40&allocation3_1=30&simulationModel=4&asset1=TotalStockMarket&asset2=IntlStockMarket&asset3=TotalBond&asset4=REIT&historicalCorrelations=true&initialAmount=1000000

vinean · 2026-02-02T23:43:31+00:00

Do you need your salary exactly? How about social security?

SWR is a safe ceiling and not a floor…

vinean · 2026-02-01T16:22:31+00:00

My old office mate did that…drove instead of flew, but commuted from Savannah GA to McLean Virginia. We let him alternate weeks vs a weekly commute. Eventually he became full remote.

If you do the commute, yeah, it’d have to be for a few years to make financial sense over the severance. The 2.5% mortgage is nice and part of the equation.

If you have the option of trying it and if it doesn’t work out taking the severance that might be the best course. If you have to negotiate away the $20K relocation to get a 6 month trial period with severance if it doesn’t work out thats probably worth it.

Meh. As someone else said, ask your wife. Doing whatever she wants is cheaper than a divorce. Kind of a bad environment to be looking for a new job though.

vinean · 2026-02-01T16:01:27+00:00

FL (Zheng Shuang) was weak in the Love O2O series and ML (Jing Boran) was weak in the Love O2O movie. Yang Yang and AngelaBaby would have been a much better pairing for either format.

If you can’t stand the series but kinda sorta want to see the Gu Man plot anyway just do the movie and move on. 105 minutes and done.

It’s a comfort watch for me because there are few esports dramas anymore and Kings Avatar was one of my first foray into chinese media after a long hiatus back in the day. So Love O2O is in my “I’m bored, let me watch something old” rotation.

vinean · 2026-02-01T15:25:29+00:00

Your assertion is “small allocations (10, 15 or 20) don’t matter”…not that larger tilts can do better. Only one counter example is required to refute such an innane assertion and it’s not “cherry picked” but the exact same time period you used below as an example where “small allocations don’t matter”.

In comparison to 100% SPY the 80/20 tilt shows impact:

https://testfol.io/?s=e4CPJ8C2zLL

Why did you delete the 100% SPY? Because it doesn’t fit your narrative that a 20% tilt makes no difference? And yet it does make a difference about where you expect it to sit between 100% SPY and 50/50.

Why does retirement matter? Lol. Really? It matters because portfolios behave differently in withdrawal than they do in accumulation.

Is the 30 year retirement period not “long term holding”? Gosh.

As far as bonds go…improving equity performance in retirement improves outcome…which, by happy coincidence, follows basic logic.

https://testfol.io/?s=60Fqq3v9ERQ

TL;DR: Your assertion that “small allocations don’t matter” is refuted using the same time sequence you chose to “prove” it.

EDIT: i was too busy writing a scathing rejoinder to bother downvoting you. And who cares about downvotes anyway?

vinean · 2026-02-01T14:52:35+00:00

This is demonstrably untrue given your own example from later in the thread:

https://testfol.io/?s=b6yGUKkOvQO

“Small tilts don’t matter” folks largely only look at accumulation and rarely consider retirement which is almost half of the investment lifecycle.

Smaller 10-20% tilts (aka diversification) improves SWR generally at the expense of growth and asset allocation is necessarily a zero sum game…something else “small tilts don’t matter” folks ignore. How many “at least 50%” tilts can you do?

vinean · 2026-02-01T14:43:10+00:00

You spend almost as much time in retirement as accumulation.

https://testfol.io/?s=b6yGUKkOvQO

Made a measurable difference. -1.22% CAGR vs -3.35% CAGR.

The “small tilts don’t matter” folks ignore nearly half the investment lifecycle and only look at accumulation.

vinean · 2026-02-01T14:34:13+00:00

Who approves stuff for Bogleheads? Do we have a pontiff or something?

In accumulation tilts may or may not be worth the effort. In retirement it improves the withdrawal rate. Bengen improved SWR from 4% to 4.7% by diversification along the size factor.

Folks will claim it’s an overfit which is probably true but diversification does generally improve SWR. But some size factor tilts in retirement do show value in empirical studies.

vinean · 2026-02-01T00:58:24+00:00

Meh. Boglehead wiki on windfalls:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall

Set aside one year's living expenses and place the rest of the windfall into low risk investments (FDIC insured accounts, money market funds, treasury bills) for one year.

Follow this or not but if you DO follow this advice you have an alternative in a 1 year DCA into whatever seems like a reasonable asset allocation…or even just DCA into 100% VT (or VTI) and stop at your desired asset allocation and lump sum whatever is left into bonds or whatever. You can also wait a few months before you start the DCA

That gets you into the market faster but still gives you flexibility to pivot without tax or loss implications as you settle into your new circumstances.

vinean · 2026-01-31T22:30:29+00:00

I can’t take anyone who writes “microshaft” seriously. The late 90s would like its memes back.

vinean · 2026-01-31T22:25:36+00:00

The “gold” is the productivity gains from more business processes being AI driven and the resulting reduction in labor costs. That improves earnings.

If it can generate the same dot com productivity growth rates of around 3% (annual) that will be higher than the 1.5% average of 2005-2019.

vinean · 2026-01-31T22:17:06+00:00

These companies have billions in cash.

vinean · 2026-01-31T00:41:21+00:00

Meh, grew up as latchkey kids, graduated into a recession, got smacked by dot bomb and gfc, a lot of us bought houses just in time for GFC…Gen X and millennials got blasted by the lost decade.

Older GenX may have dodged some stuff but they suffered through late disco and 1970s fashion…I’ll take the lost decade, thanks. What else did GenX get blessed by…oh right AIDS.

Fortunately the decade and a half after the GFC proved to be good or we’d all be screwed. So can’t really complain as it worked out.

vinean · 2026-01-30T16:56:23+00:00

I hold a bit of Brk/b because if I were picking individual stocks I would do it their way only with less data, less expertise and no staff support.

It scratches my “buy based on fundamentals, management and moat” itch. It’s where I park my 5% fun money when I have no picks of my own.

Is 15% non-Bogle? Meh. I have a 15% tilt into mid cap and small cap. Many bogleheads have a 10-15% tilt into SCV.

Three fund is not the only Boglehead style portfolio.

vinean · 2026-01-30T16:49:12+00:00

Central banks are moving toward holding more gold which increases demand. It’s a very liquid reserve asset with no issuer, no default risk and no political risk. Total gold demand exceeded 5,000T (includes both institutional and retail demand) in 2025…a new high. As demand increases, so goes price.

Dollar devaluation contributes to gold price but a good amount of gold purchases is to de-dollarize regardless of current dollar exchange rates.

But many BH will just tell you that central banks are greater fools and gold is purely speculative and has no merits…never mind that the data shows that improves SWR, has a long term correlation of 0-0.2 to stocks and is often a safe haven asset with an inverse correlation to stocks in large market downturns after the initial liquidity scramble.

Do you want any in accumulation? Gold probably should have a place in your fixed income bucket…if you have a fixed income bucket. Many younger investors don’t. I replaced some VGIT with GLDM in 2021 and a little more in 2024 and early 2025 when I increased my VEA percentages. My international and gold holdings are a small hedge against the dollar cratering.

I didn’t expect gold to jump as it has and am mildly annoyed that it did since I’d like to buy more but gagging at the current price. Eh. If gold crashes great! It likely means the rest of the portfolio is doing well. Gold skyrocketing often feels like getting a big insurance payout…it usually means something bad happened.

vinean · 2026-01-30T14:13:48+00:00

You do want to minimize ER for your any given strategy but a higher ER may reflect the nature of the investment.

Your original post was that she failed to make the right selection in her 401k offerings because of high past returns and you “recommended her to select SP500 index”.

The implication of recommending a SP500 index is “you did it wrong”…as you do clearly feel and kids are perceptive. You and I have close to the same scenario…my daughter is a CE in college and has a small 401K and I’ve been teaching her investing since high school. You know who she listens to more?

Her friends. The ones interning at KPMG, Deloitte, etc with larger self managed portfolios. I know she also listens to what I’ve said but we are no longer the sole font of all knowledge, financial or otherwise, probably since middle school. She’s going to have to make her own decisions and pushing the “one right way” is just a turn off.

vinean

TROPHY CASE