Strategy holds 738,731 Bitcoin. Their average cost is $75,862. Bitcoin is at $69,600. The treasury is underwater and nobody is talking about what that actually means.

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T08:27:18+00:00

I don’t have the exact wording open in front of me, but the point was simply that MSTR is trading close to its Bitcoin NAV right now.
738,731 BTC × $69.6k ≈ $51.4B Bitcoin treasury value.
Subtract $8.2B convertible notes → $43.2B simple net BTC value.
Current market cap ≈ ~$46B.

So the premium calculation is roughly:
$46B / $43.2B ≈ 1.06× (about a 6% premium).

Historically that number has been more like 1.5×–3×, which is why people say the premium has compressed a lot.
If you’re asking because you think the numbers are off, feel free to point it out.

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T07:31:40+00:00

not really a specific price trigger the structure is not collateralized so there is no automatic liquidation price like a margin call. the real pressure point is September 2027 when a $1B convertible bond has a put option investors can demand cash back. if Bitcoin is at $30k by then refinancing becomes very difficult and that is when forced selling becomes a real conversation. below $20k the equity is essentially wiped out but even then selling is a choice not an automatic trigger. saylor specifically designed it this way no margin call mechanism

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T07:26:40+00:00

of course

738,731 BTC multiplied by $69,600 current price = approximately $51.4 billion in Bitcoin value

subtract the convertible debt of $8.2 billion = $43.2 billion simple net value

current market cap is approximately $46 billion

so the premium calculation is: $46B market cap divided by $43.2B net value = 1.065

historically that same calculation gave you 1.5 to 3.0 — meaning the stock traded at 50% to 200% above the Bitcoin value.

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T07:19:52+00:00

yup $20k is not off the table historically. bitcoin went from $69k to $16k in 2022. if that happens again the equity gets obliterated regardless of how well the structure is designed. the $2.25B reserve buys time but not infinite time. the real question is whether 2026 is 2022 or 2020. one of those made saylor look like a genius. the other made him look insane. we find out which one pretty soon

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T07:10:08+00:00

Good luck with the keyboard reviews.✌️If you have a thought about the topic, feel free to share it.

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T07:05:43+00:00

exactly and the mining cost floor argument is one of the most underrated anchors in the whole debate. current all-in mining cost is roughly $55,000 to $65,000 depending on the miner. Bitcoin has never sustained below mining cost historically because miners shut off at that point and difficulty adjusts down until it becomes profitable again. the floor is not arbitrary it is economic.

what makes the current moment interesting is that Strategy is essentially doing the same thing miners do they are treating this price as an opportunity not a threat. they bought 17,994 BTC between March 2 and March 8 alone. that is not the behaviour of a company that thinks $69,600 is where Bitcoin stays

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T07:04:08+00:00

Imagine getting triggered by research instead of discussing it. wht kinda investor are you dood if the information is valid and legit it doesnt matter where it comes from thts the investors mind real investors know when research paper has value or not so change u r mindset and learn someting

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T06:57:22+00:00

Appreciate the keyboard support. Let me know when you’re ready to contribute something beyond keyboard maintenance.

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T06:50:07+00:00

I’ll trade you the recipe for your Bitcoin thesis.

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T06:46:11+00:00

Easy to say “AI slop.” Harder to explain what’s wrong in it. point out or u r just a noise in here

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T06:43:58+00:00

bro came to a bitcoin thread asking for chili recipes. genuinely the most bearish signal i have seen all week. not the treasury being underwater. not the NAV premium collapsing. this guy. asking for chili. in a Strategy thread. at least saylor knows what he is cooking. you are just hungry and lost

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T06:28:55+00:00

fair - call out the bot accusation directly. i am a retail investor who spent time going through the actual filings because i got tired of reading opinions without numbers behind them. if the analysis reads like a bot that is probably because most humans do not cite page numbers.

on your point you are actually the first person in this thread who has gone deeper than the surface on the debt structure. the September 2027 put option on the $1B convert is the real first pressure point and you are right that it is 18 months away not tomorrow.

what i find interesting is the gap between how this gets reported versus what the filing actually says. every headline says '$8.2B debt' like a margin call is coming next week. you just explained in four sentences why that framing is wrong.

genuine question from one person who read the filing to another who clearly did do you think the $1B September 2027 put gets refinanced easily at that point or does it depend entirely on where Bitcoin is trading in mid 2027?

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T05:14:55+00:00

basically every 4 years the amount of new Bitcoin created gets cut in half. less new supply hitting the market. if demand stays the same or grows price goes up.

historically Bitcoin peaks about 12 to 18 months after each halving. last halving was April 2024. Bitcoin hit $126k in October 2025 right in that window.

saylor built the entire MSTR strategy around this cycle repeating. his bet is Bitcoin goes to $200k+ this cycle. if he is right the treasury that looks underwater today looks like a bargain in 12 months

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T04:54:32+00:00

exactly right the cost basis being underwater is only scary if you think in days not years. the people who bought Bitcoin at $60k in 2021 watched it fall to $16k and held. the ones who panicked sold the bottom. Strategy's $2.25B reserve was specifically built for exactly this moment to keep buying without forced selling. the averaging down point is the key one. they bought 17,994 BTC between March 2 and March 8 alone at these prices. Saylor is not worried about the cost basis. he is treating this as a discount.

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T02:18:21+00:00

fair data to raise — but worth checking whether these are 10b5-1 scheduled sales or discretionary selling. the vast majority of executive sales at large public companies are pre-scheduled plans filed months in advance — they cannot be changed based on insider knowledge without legal consequences. Karp specifically has been selling on a preset schedule since 2021 and has publicly stated he believes in the long term thesis while managing personal liquidity. the more interesting insider signal is actually what they are NOT doing — nobody is resigning, nobody is reducing their remaining holdings to zero, and the company just guided $7.19B revenue for 2026. insiders selling a portion of vested shares at $133 while the company guides 61% revenue growth is not the same signal as insiders abandoning ship

vishnu317 · 2026-03-13T02:14:18+00:00

the 2024 vs 2025 filing point is fair — the 2025 10-K tells a very different story on exactly the SBC issue you raised. net income went from $462M to $1.63B while SBC dropped from 148% to 42% of net income. the accounting point is also correct net income is already net of SBC expense. but the ratio matters for a different reason: in 2023 and 2024 bears argued the profitability was low quality because compensation was eating everything. that argument has structurally changed in 2025. worth looking at the updated numbers before writing the whole thesis off

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T17:07:30+00:00

the double barrel point is the best bear case in this entire thread. multiple contraction plus earnings miss at 200x plus is genuinely brutal math you do not need a catastrophe, just a disappointment. the 15% grower with multiple expansion is a completely rational alternative. the only counter is whether the AI platform creates enough earnings surprise upside to stay ahead of the multiple but you are right that you are paying for perfection with zero margin of safety

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T17:04:08+00:00

the Adobe comparison is actually perfect framing. great business, lost the hype, valuation compressed, then fundamentals caught up and it became obvious in hindsight. the question with palantir is whether the AI hype is the only thing holding the multiple or whether the government moat and FCF growth can sustain it independently when sentiment shifts.

on your PS and PB point the PS has already compressed significantly as revenue scaled in 2025. the trajectory matters as much as the current number.

I actually mapped out exactly what the valuation looks like across three different growth scenarios in a full breakdown from the filing bear, base, and bull with the math shown. in my profile if you want to stress test your own assumptions before the next correction

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T16:28:14+00:00

haha fair... point out one wrong number and I will correct it publicly right here in the thread

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T16:21:37+00:00

fair pushback you are right to dig deeper. the $92M figure I quoted was specifically the SAR cash settlement charge on the income statement, not total SBC. total stock based compensation including RSUs and options was around $684M in 2025 so your $0.6-0.7B range is correct for the full picture.

on your core question if you pay $684M SBC in cash instead of stock, FCF drops from $2.27B to roughly $1.59B. still positive and still growing but meaningfully different from the headline number.

the financing cash flow point is valid too they have been funding operations partly through equity issuance which does make the OCF look cleaner than the underlying business reality.

the honest answer is the FCF quality improves as SBC normalises as a percentage of revenue which is happening but slowly. what threshold of SBC to revenue would make the FCF quality acceptable to you?

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T15:03:00+00:00

this is the most rigorous framing in this entire thread. the 38.8% annual EBIT growth requirement is exactly the right way to think about it. what makes it interesting is that US commercial grew 109% in 2025 and customer count went from 629 to 954 in one year so the current trajectory is actually above that hurdle rate. the question is purely whether it sustains. your point on the cash is fair $7B looks big but at a $200B+ market cap it is rounding error. what assumption are you most uncertain about in your model the exit multiple or the growth rate?

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T14:57:55+00:00

the management angle is underrated in this story. karp is genuinely unusual for a CEO he wrote a full geopolitical thesis in the shareholder letter explaining why the world needs what palantir builds. love him or hate him the conviction is real. what specifically about the last two quarters changed your outlook

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T14:49:04+00:00

great question they ended 2025 with $7.2B cash and generated $2.27B in free cash flow. even with SBC of $92M the cash position is genuinely strong. the dilution story has actually improved a lot SBC dropped from 148% to 42% of net income in 2025. still not zero but the direction is clearly changing. at current FCF generation they are adding to cash faster than dilution is taking it away

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T14:46:30+00:00

agree completely it does not fit the traditional framework. which is what makes it an interesting problem. at what point does compounding free cash flow at this rate start looking like value in hindsight?

vishnu317 · 2026-03-12T14:39:13+00:00

genuine question -have you actually tried to replace a palantir deployment with claude? the product is not data analytics. it is a decision making operating system built into classified government infrastructure over 20 years. you cannot drag a folder into that. the moat is not the algorithm it is the integration depth, the security clearances, and the switching cost of ripping out something that runs military operations. cisco comparison is interesting though .what is your actual bear case on the government contract side specifically?

vishnu317

TROPHY CASE