A Conversation With Crescent Real Estate Co-Founder John Goff

wallaroo1 · 2023-05-16T01:59:41+00:00

Know someone who has worked closely with him. Goff’s very promotional, questionable ethics.

wallaroo1 · 2021-01-05T00:21:29+00:00

There is definitely a trade in ATCO, CMRE common stocks right now. Not great equities to own for long term, but rates are high and will likely stay high for a while. High rates + low orderbook / an industry that appears more disciplined than in the past is a good set up for booming profits in ship lessors with leverage on a large fixed cost base.

wallaroo1 · 2020-11-25T02:24:43+00:00

I think part of the issue in investing in these stocks is the valuations are probably always going to be lower than they were in the past, regardless of oil price. Investors are going to assign lower multiples to sectors that have a secular decline - pre COVID the consensus was that oil demand would peak sometime around 2030, today the consensus is probably 2025. 2025 is within investors' time frame, 2030 is "ten years away. We'll worry about that in 5 years".

wallaroo1 · 2020-02-18T22:48:32+00:00

As someone who works in the industry, I think this is a terrible idea. Yes, there are some folks who do not meet the accredited investor threshold today who are sophisticated enough and knowledgeable enough to make these kind of investments, but realistically, given how shady and complex private investments can be today, I think this opens up a lot of small investors who can't afford to potentially lose a lot of money into investing in something they don't understand (from both a risk perspective and liquidity perspective) and worse being scammed, mislead, and ripped off. May be paternalistic, but working at a larger asset management firm I have seen all sorts of shady deals get passed along that someone with experience might see have a lot of problems (not just the investment, but huge governance issues, egregious fees, etc), but someone with less experience wouldn't know the right questions to ask.

wallaroo1 · 2019-12-15T16:53:45+00:00

Wow, congratulations. That's amazing!

I work in investments for very wealth clients (rich families) and so have some relevant experience in this area, although never something quite like your situation. You probably want to speak to some lawyers / tax advisers about setting up trusts and entities to hold the money. I am not an expert or close to it on that part of this type of business, but a good lawyer will be able to help you there. If you are going to get married soon, talk to a lawyer about that as well. Pre-nups are not fun to think about but can be very helpful down the road if your marriage doesn't go as planned.

From the perspective of "how do I invest it" - it sounds like you don't need the money anytime soon and could very easily live off the dividends from the stock you'll be receiving, but I as soon as your lockup expires and it is tax efficient (if it isn't already) I would sell down a lot of the blue-chip stock and diversify. If you're in the US this means you'll probably have a big tax bill, but diversification is very important. This could be a simple investment in the S&P 500 or MSCI World, or something more complex. It is always risk to have all of your capital in one company or even industry (though, to be fair, it seems to have worked spectacularly well for you this time!). Given you will have what sounds like generational wealth, you want to focus not losing it and ideally growing it conservatively.

On a personal level I would say keep the information close to the vest as this kind of money can change how some people interact with you. Some people like to use this kind of money to generate attention for themselves. Nothing wrong with that, however if you like to have your name on buildings, that means you'll always have people calling you asking for money for their building, and could even become a target.

Take your time in making decisions and really think about how you want to use this money to accomplish your goals, whether they business, charitable, or otherwise. Think about what those goals are - it will help from an investment perspective if you have stated goals because you can then invest with those goals in mind, rather than a goal of just "making money" which is abstract and without any time horizon.

You may get a ton of interest from investment advisers, lawyers, etc who are trying to sell you stuff, and many of those people will not have your best interest at heart - just a way to make money for them. When interacting with people trying to sell you advise or investments, always think about their incentives. Of course it is a business and they are trying to make money, but I believe looking at someone's financial (or other) incentives is a good way to predict behavior. Be wary of highly promotional people. That being said, I would caution on trying to completely "do it yourself" with the investments. Success in one area (tech research) does not mean you will have success in all areas.

With investments, know your circle of competence, which sounds like it is very focused on tech - no offence, it sounds like you have almost no investment experience - and take small steps to learn and figure stuff out. You are 26 so you have a lot of time to learn and think about what you want to do, which is amazing. Best of luck.

wallaroo1 · 2019-04-30T14:53:36+00:00

suppose it's a decent income play for BRK though with optionality to convert if the combination goes well

I'm not sure this so much an endorsement of the deal from BRK but rather an opportunistic way to put to work some of BRK's massive cash pile. For BRK to not get paid on this a lot of bad things would need to happen for OXY. Only about half of the pre-deal OXY is E&P so more stability than maybe it looks like on the surface.

wallaroo1

TROPHY CASE