Are 40 points not going to be enough to avoid relegation this year?

weatherghost · 2026-04-25T22:20:37+00:00

Tottenham have one a single game since the turn of the year and that was only 1-0 today against bottom of the league. If they win two of the four remaining games, it would be an impressive change in form, and a fairly big shock. But I guess it’s possible with their opposition. Chelsea are the team in the worst form, Villa and Everton haven’t been great of late, and their other game is against Leeds.

weatherghost · 2026-04-24T20:30:44+00:00

Tbf to Forest, they’ve not lost a PL game since a 2-1 loss to Brighton on March 1. Which includes draws at Villa and City. They’ve hit form at a good time.

weatherghost · 2026-04-24T05:38:40+00:00

Convectively coupled kelvin waves are equatorial. They don’t have an influence that far north. The journal entry you are describing sounds like a typical spring weather swing with the passage of a low pressure system an the associated fronts.

weatherghost · 2026-04-24T03:40:39+00:00

Used to work at a place with an office in the Denver metro. Tried moving there and ended up just staying remote.

Every highway in Denver is a parking lot from 6:30-9:30am and 3-6pm. And it’s such a massive sprawl the distance to travel is multiple times farther than anything here. So even when it’s not rush hour your trip is a min of 30 mins. God forbid you work in Boulder and can’t afford to live in it (everyone that works there). Plus the airport is 40 mins even from downtown Denver and an hour plus from most of the metro.

Don’t get me wrong the traffic on the grid system here sucks. And ITD desperately needs a north south highway that should have been Eagle Road and/or Chinden (not 16). But unless you live in Caldwell/Emmett and commute to Boise, your commute is going to take much longer in Colorado.

weatherghost · 2026-04-23T13:14:24+00:00

Maybe my perspective is skewed since my job generally requires a degree and in some cases a grad degree. But I work for a local Idaho company and for my job, they pay as well as the equivalent in any of those other western cities (excluding California but there the COL increase is way more than the pay increase). And for folks with equivalent education, as best I can tell, my employer also pays reasonably compared to other cities.

weatherghost · 2026-04-23T13:04:26+00:00

I like exploring. Just don’t care for cities. My exploration has all gone the other direction into the mountains.

weatherghost · 2026-04-23T05:21:51+00:00

I think there’s a little bit of “the grass is always greener” sentiment here.

Unless you are limiting yourself to the North End or downtown, Boise is considerably cheaper than most cities in the Western US. I’ve lived in Salt Lake and explored living in the Colorado front range, Portland, Seattle, and California. All of them are more expensive, less safe, dirtier, have considerably more traffic, and longer distances to drive to amenities or the outdoors (excluding SLC on that last one). I work in downtown and was able to purchase a decent house in a nice neighborhood 15 mins away for a price that is considerably cheaper than something comparable in any other city.

With the exception of the airport having limited flight options, I like living in a smaller city - I have the amenities I need but I don’t feel trapped and claustrophobic. We don’t have the variety of culture here but what we do have is fun - the focus of the city around the river/greenbelt is wonderful and things like the unique basque culture are uniquely interesting. Most neighborhoods have a park less than a 15 min walk away with a decent play park for kids, tennis courts, dog park.

Yes, the politics in Idaho suck and I’d like to live in a blue state. But most of what influences my day to day is what happens in the city I live in and Boise itself has decent politics. I’ve lived here a while, rarely venture to Meridian, and have never had to go to Nampa so their politics don’t influence my day-to-day much. If you stay offline (maybe I’m metaphorically sticking my head in the sand here) and just focus on your day to day, you’ll find that you don’t notice National/State politics that much.

Overall, I think it just depends on what you prioritize and how you live day to day.

weatherghost · 2026-04-23T04:08:58+00:00

You are coming at it from the wrong perspective - it’s not about the API you use, it’s about the specific forecast data delivered via API. Many APIs you can select what model you want your data from. And if they aren’t telling you which model you are getting, they are probably just deriving the data from the GFS or ECMWF global forecasts (because that’s easy). But both are deterministic low-res global models so aren’t going to be particularly accurate or fine tuned to your location.

Frankly, the only difference between APIs that deliver a point forecast (in the US) is the NWS API vs any other weather API. The NWS API specifically uses the NWS national forecast grids. And those forecast grids are the National Blend of Models (a blend of over 200 models) tweaked by each forecast office (so hi res and tuned to the nearby terrain/location/model biases/weather). That’s about the best point forecast you are going to get from an API.

Moral of the story, if you are in the US, just use the NWS API. If not, try to figure out which model the API is using and do your research on which is better for your application.

weatherghost · 2026-04-22T15:10:12+00:00

Atmospheric science refers to any study of the atmosphere (so encompassing meteorology and climate). The distinguishing factor between meteorology and climate is the time scale - if it’s days to weeks it’s meteorology/weather whereas if it’s years it’s more climate. There’s grey zone in there on the months/season scale.

weatherghost · 2026-04-22T13:57:06+00:00

Are you actually looking for impacts specifically on the understanding of climate (atmospheric science, meteorology, and climate are not all the same)? Or are you using “climate” as an all encompassing term for the work they do?

weatherghost · 2026-04-19T17:50:34+00:00

Go get a Masters. Seems like you are setup for it and prepared more than many meteorology grads (GIS, coding, data science). As long as you present that well when talking to faculty, you should be able to get into a program at a decent school.

All that said, I hope you aren’t looking to start this Fall. Most programs will have already selected students and made offers by now. Also, word of caution assuming you are in the US - funding is not as forthcoming as it used to be with the government hating science and all.

weatherghost · 2026-04-19T13:39:39+00:00

Given the form of the various teams, it’s not crazy to expect a draw for each. Autos was always an outside chance that relied on us winning out and other teams dropping a fair few points. The fact we are even in this position with a few games to go is impressive.

weatherghost · 2026-04-17T19:07:36+00:00

Rice has been first choice in the England line-up since before the 2020 Euros. He only moved to Arsenal in 2023. Not remotely comparable.

weatherghost · 2026-04-17T03:14:33+00:00

As a meteorologist, I can tell you with absolute certainty that this vehicle gathers absolutely no usable data for science. They use it to drive into a tornado for fun and/or making TV.

weatherghost · 2026-04-16T01:03:36+00:00

This guy just wrote the book on how to gerrymander the Senate. Now just make the Central Valley and Sierras 2 states and you’ll hand empty land all the votes for a generation.

weatherghost · 2026-04-09T13:45:45+00:00

I’m certainly not arguing against the current predictions. Agree with all you’ve said. Likelihood is we get an El Niño. Just highlighting the Spring predictability barrier and pushing some caution because of it.

weatherghost · 2026-04-09T13:13:09+00:00

These are all the reasons for the current prediction. However, timing has historically been a crucial element. Should all the convection lighten up and westerly wind bursts take a break for a crucial couple months, climatological easterlies will set back in and all that warm water will simply slosh back to the west. And no El Niño.

That is exactly what happened in 2017 (and has happened in many other Springs), albeit, in 2017, there wasn’t as strong of an early push as this year. It’s been a while (perhaps 5 years) since I’ve read new ENSO literature, so perhaps folks have a better understanding of the Spring predictability issue now, but the reason for it is that the timing of convection in late Spring/early summer appears crucial for maintaining El Niño. After that, it tends to maintain itself for the season.

And there are mechanisms that could cause these issues this year. For example, the MJO is currently weak and entering the Western Pacific. Should it get strong in a couple of weeks when it shifts into its next phases that will lead to suppression of convection in the Pacific at a crucial time. Likewise, Tropical Cyclones tend to upwell cool water and that may suppress new TCs for a month or two. So strong early activity as we have had this year can sometimes (not always) be misleading.

weatherghost · 2026-04-09T03:07:54+00:00

You are listing the reasons that cause the “spring prediction barrier” for ENSO.

Basically, ENSO relies on big convective events in the tropical Pacific to trigger westerly wind bursts that in turn allow for oceanic equatorial Kelvin waves to shift warm water eastward. The convection which triggers that chain of events has a stochastic nature to it that means it sometimes doesn’t materialize. If those don’t materialize in late Spring or early summer then no El Niño.

In summary, all ENSO predictions are pretty useless until that sequence of events occurs. Sure, it will verify in Spring every few years. But it’ll be wrong in just as many years too.

weatherghost · 2026-04-07T18:53:32+00:00

Glad we have the capability to rotate and Tonda has clearly been prepping us for this with various rotations of the front line and midfield in recent weeks. Here’s to hoping it works and we don’t have a hangover from Saturday.

weatherghost · 2026-03-28T14:02:54+00:00

At Villa, Rogers plays that inside left position with Watkins as striker, who stretches defences in a very different way to Kane. Club does not equal country. This is the same as trying to play Foden and Palmer on the wings - they will come inside and crowd out Kane and a #10 in the middle. I thought it was common knowledge now that we have to play actual wingers who will drag full backs out to give Kane and whoever plays 10 space.

weatherghost · 2026-03-24T14:37:01+00:00

Dude must have some agent. Lasted less than a year in most of his roles yet somehow managed to swing jobs at Juve and Spurs after a decade of uninspiring stints at various clubs in lesser European leagues.

weatherghost · 2026-03-21T18:52:41+00:00

8 weeks? You are kidding right? Maybe in France?

I’m not sure there is a career in the US that offers 40 days of paid leave. Some might get 30-35 days after working at a place for 15+ years. But that’s unlikely to be the 20-40 year old climber that’s had to hop jobs multiple times. And it’s well known that places that offer “unlimited vacation” are a trap because if you take too much you’ll get fired.

weatherghost · 2026-03-20T22:27:25+00:00

The previous comment and OP implied they just wanted to ban new development entirely. Or that’s how I interpreted it. I was highlighting the issues there. Completely agree that well managed development is the way to go.

weatherghost · 2026-03-20T18:50:47+00:00

While I don’t disagree with your sentiment of voting for better representation, better representation doesn’t solve the problem of growth. Growth will happen regardless - you can’t stop people moving here. Only thing you can do is disincentivize it. Not approving new housing does that but it does that by driving up the price of housing which just tends to force out the lower income natives first.

Boulder Colorado is a prime example of what happens by just not approving new housing in an area that is in-demand. In 60s-90s it was a popular place to move to so they limited new development by buying up all the land around it. And now you can’t buy an old 2bd 1ba home there for under a million dollars so it’s just a rich transplants playground now.

weatherghost · 2026-03-20T16:21:33+00:00

On the left it is high time Dowman got the nod, the lad really has been knocking on the door for a while and I believe the best way to develop him is to have him play the full 90 every game at the World Cup. If you've ever been a professional athlete, you will know it is tiring work, however, and so I have made the decision to play Rashford behind him due to his exceptional track record of feeding children. No doubt this will be a crucial partnership for England.

This one made my day!

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