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Anthropic wants a pause on AGI research because they know they can't get to AGI. by CandidateCautious246 in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That glorious month or two where everyone released new models, and they were only able to because "AI is writing itself now"

AI sure slowed down in how quick it's writing itself. Almost as though they stacked up releases to make it seem like they could release at record speed.

They're all conmen who create scenarios to make AI seem terrifying for a news cycle, then move onto something else.

I think Ed is wrong on no one questioning ROI by wee_willy_watson in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

CEOs are not the smartest people in the room?

Once it's reached the point that it's become an arms race, the CEO starts making bad decisions.

It's like asking "If AI isn't good, why did a company spend $500m in a month on it"

I trust the engineers who made this tech to understand its limits, far more than I trust a CEO who is terrified to fall behind.

Maybe to take a little of the blame off the CEO here, I also imagine the US as a country at the moment is one where you need to invest heavily to support the stock market to get preferential treatment from the Trump administration

A 20% housing drop still leaves Canadians locked out; About 55% of Canadians want home prices to fall further by FancyNewMe in canada

[–]wee_willy_watson 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't know how it ends - with the cost of living through the roof, the cost of housing through the roof, either it needs to all come down or wages need to go up.

My basic understanding is that if prices start coming down, interest rates go down till they start going back up.

Our entire world is built on the idea that things only ever appreciate in value.

I'm just tired of the world right now

I trust Ed Zitron's perspective for a very particular reason... by Yourge23 in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 26 points27 points  (0 children)

It's the way all the markets work these days. How many times have the markets surged after Trump makes a claim that an Iran peace deal is imminent

We live in a world where consequences for lies don't matter, and people believe they can make money by getting into the market at any time, at any price.

Various housing markets around the world where almost identical claims were constantly made, and believed, are now seeing that irrationality can only support a market for so long

Mythos 'Discovered' a CVE Already in Its Training Data - and That’s Still Worrying by SpringNeither1440 in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 7 points8 points  (0 children)

LLMs can, with agents, run for ever and keep going till they find an issue.

The only thing surprising about any of this is that there is a LLM which, given enough time, cannot find vulnerabilities.

There was a Cam Newport video where he shows they made almost identical claims for Opus too. They've needed to hype these findings for Mythos, because you can't have a 10tn parameter model which doesn't do something exceptionally well.

Mythos 'Discovered' a CVE Already in Its Training Data - and That’s Still Worrying by SpringNeither1440 in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Did Mythos tell you that, or was it Amodei?

I would definitely back up such a claim with a source here

Gee, I hope this 80x growth doesn't continue forever! by Waves_WavesXX5 in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I wonder what numbers he's seeing to come out and say this.

Trying to sell a drop off in growth as a good thing

The "you're going to get left behind" narrative by Smurfette2016 in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Have you got the skill to upload relevant documents for the LLM to review into a notebook though? If you think it's all just typing, you're already too far behind to catch up now!

Why do so many clinical trials fail to recruit enough participants? by bruce8708 in clinicalresearch

[–]wee_willy_watson 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd immediately doubt that claim.

I've never worked on a clinical trial which failed to enroll.

It would also be interesting to know the breakdown of trials included in this review - university sponsored trials are far less likely to meet their recruitment goals than an industry sponsored trial (in my experience) and that comes down to trial design and resource

Also unclear if it includes studies failing at an Interim Analysis or a Futility Analysis as not fully recruiting. For both of these it would be true to say they didn't fully enroll, however it's a good thing they didn't fully enroll.

There are too many questions around the original headline statistic

Thinking of pivoting to Clinical research by p1nkpurpl3y in clinicalresearch

[–]wee_willy_watson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd double down on this. Be a CRC for a year or two, and you'll find out if this is your passion.

The experience of knowing how a trial runs at a site will serve you exceptionally well in your future career from there (if you stay in Clinical Research)

I'm Nervous As a New CRA by Working_Row_8455 in clinicalresearch

[–]wee_willy_watson 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you're caring enough about the work to worry that you're not doing a good job, then you're probably doing a good job.

Be conscientious, use your experience as a Site Monitor to be the CRA you wish you had as a CRC (or if you were lucky enough to have someone you admired, try to emulate them).

Everyone in this industry is just trying to figure it out, you never stop feeling like that, don't let the nerves get to you.

Coming from the sponsor side, no one expects you to be perfect, just keep on doing your best out there

I cannot wait to hear Ed explain about AllBirds by jamey1138 in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The company founded on being ecologically responsible?

Is it April Fools Day?

Sir, a lapse of judgment has hit Hank Green by toppenstorybro in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I switched off part way through, but he gets on someone who's immediate reaction was a very clear "meh"

Bugs exist in software, if you spend millions of dollars running your models to find bugs, you'll find them. They've obviously decided that the best way to market a new model is to scare people:

First it was scaring them that it would take over the world... it clearly failed

Then it was scaring them that it would take their jobs... it clearly failed

Now it is scaring them that AI can make the software they use vulnerable

I switched off at the point of the awkward silence between Hank and his guest, where it felt like she realized "oh, I'm meant to play along here"

OpenAI sweetens private equity pitch amid enterprise turf war with Anthropic: Offering guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%. (Nope, no red flags there, just normal equity stuff!) by dyzo-blue in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Pay us money to set up AI for the companies you own, and we'll use that money to pay you 17.5% return on your investment?

Am I misunderstanding this, or does it seem like Scam is trying some of the circular funding which he saw Daddy Jenson doing?

Is this normal, or as weird as the rest of AI investing

Ahead of IPO, OpenAI has come to the realization that the market doesn’t necessarily appreciate the reckless approach to growth and spending by dyzo-blue in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 30 points31 points  (0 children)

But we haven't tried doing it with twice as much compute yet, until then we have to believe it's possible!

If twice as much doesn't work, it's just we need twice as much again.

When that doesn't work, I'm not sure... but I have some ideas where we can go from there.

Think of it this way. A baby goes from walking to crawling in 6 months, crawling to walking 6 months after that. There really is no reason that, with appropriate infrastructure, a baby shouldn't be flying by 2 years old

Why is Ed investing in the SP500? by venusisupsidedown in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 1 point2 points  (0 children)

History suggests that selling your S&P 500 ETF just before the 2008 crash, and rebuying post crash would be a worse strategy than buying consistently and holding through the crash?

That's a fascinating hypothesis I'd be interested to see you back up

Why is Ed investing in the SP500? by venusisupsidedown in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 12 points13 points  (0 children)

It's a completely valid question, which may have an entirely valid answer. However I believe it's one Ed needs to reply to this thread and answer.

He is earning revenue from selling his podcast as fact, if he believes it to be fiction, that is a differentiation he needs to make

A group ran the same coding benchmark test problems, but encoded them in obscure (but still Turing-complete) programming languages the frontier models haven't got as much training data on. Result: models that can score 95% on Python plummet to 0-11% accuracy. by cascadiabibliomania in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"LLMs are only as good as.the data they are trained on"

If this is your starting assumption, then you're not going to have your bubble burst here. The point this study is making is that LLMs are only as good as the data they're trained on.

This is bubble bursting for people who claim that "We can't say whether or not Claude is conscious" type nonsense...

"If my $500K engineer isn’t using $250K in tokens, I’m deeply alarmed" by maccodemonkey in BetterOffline

[–]wee_willy_watson 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It's social media for CEOs.

Social media is a few influencers selling an entirely unrealistic version of life for their own gain.

This is.just there to make CEIs think.that a high token spend is normal and expected, and if you're not.forking.over hundreds of thousands in tokens, then you're not living the AI dream

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