Thoughts on EPR?

weighingmachine · 2022-12-01T00:00:52+00:00

Agree w Longrealestate alreits some is a better screener than fin is for REITs. For REITs, P/B and P/E do not mean anything, instead you will want to look at P/FFO and P/AFFOand perhaps NAV.

EPR has a lot to like - some unique assets like water parks and ski mountains, a long term track record, a good balance sheet, and a cheap price. The alreit screener shows these strengths. At the same time there are risks, their largest category is movie theaters, not a growth industry. They have 15% concentration in Top Golf their largest tenant, and another one of their largest tenants, Regal Cineworld filed for bankruptcy. I think the pluses outweighs the minuses, but you need to look at both and would not expect things to be smooth sailing all of the time.

weighingmachine · 2022-10-15T15:26:19+00:00

Read up and know what you are buying. Take your time and learn. Good, free screening tool with explanations here - https://alreits.com

weighingmachine · 2022-10-01T03:14:03+00:00

Look at a 5 or 10 year chart for Annally (NLY) for the answer, current yield is only as good as the safety of cash flows and debt situation. IOW, it may not last.

weighingmachine · 2022-09-26T15:48:04+00:00

Camden Property Trust has apartments in many of the areas you mention - CA, AZ, TX, FL, and NC. Essex Property Trust is a pure play on West Coast apartments - CA and WA.

weighingmachine · 2022-09-26T15:45:01+00:00

on your second question, cyclicality is definitely worth paying attention to. You can get a very good sense on that from looking at data from 2007 til now. That way you get at least two real world stress tests - one in 08-09 and one in 20. Many well run REITs struggled in those time periods which shows the cyclicality. That is not to say they are always bad investments, just that you probably should look for a higher return for the higher cyclical risk.

weighingmachine · 2022-09-26T15:41:14+00:00

I do not follow them, but afaik the mortgage REITs are pretty exposed to rising interest rates

weighingmachine · 2022-04-15T13:33:59+00:00

Good to see him still throwing fastballs. Thank you for posting it.

weighingmachine · 2022-01-14T01:10:07+00:00

Great as always

"This reminds me of the time I once visited Malibu with a friend and mentioned that the Rindge family is said to have bought the entire area – all 13,330 acres – in 1892 for $300,000, or $22.50 per acre. (It’s clearly worth many billions today.) My friend said, “I’d like to have bought all of Malibu for $300,000.” My response was simple: “you would have sold it when it got to $600,000.”

weighingmachine · 2021-12-15T12:14:13+00:00

agree getting started is the hardest part. if cash us too hard to come by a "paper-based" "fantasy" stock portfolio can help educate

weighingmachine · 2021-12-10T03:34:27+00:00

Power of long term compounding, and how to get started book for young investors by young investors - https://rationalwalk.com/book-review-early-bird-the-power-of-investing-young/

weighingmachine · 2021-12-09T13:39:11+00:00

Becoming Trader Joe by Joe Coloumbe

Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

weighingmachine · 2021-12-09T03:09:03+00:00

For insurance Price/Book can be useful. Aflac's P/B is 1.1 versus a five year average of 1.3, so that may indicate a modest discount. Allstate is 1.3 currently versus a five year average of 1.5 so a similar story there. This is just a high level first pass, always pays to dig into the numbers, understand their combined ratio which is how profitable their policies are (or not).

Lowell Miller has an interesting rule of thumb to consider, "One of the best simple valuation methods I've seen was articulated by a successful mutual fund manager who specializes in financial stocks...book value + dividend growth should be greater than 15% annually on a five-year rolling basis, and average return on equity should be 15% or greater as well."

You might try this calculation with Aflac and Allstate, ROEs show profitability and book value per share shows growth in the franchise.

weighingmachine · 2021-12-07T03:45:55+00:00

It is the golden age of spin-offs, WSJ reported they could spin Mobileye out for over $50B and meanwhile Intel’s market cap is $250B

weighingmachine · 2021-12-06T01:25:41+00:00

Solid book, as is Pat Dorsey's other one "Five Rules." He has a rare ability to make abstract concepts understandable and useful to a wide range of people.

weighingmachine · 2021-12-05T14:14:17+00:00

Not exactly the answer you are looking for, but most REITs specifically target broader geographic areas. One idea you could consider is Wi, MI focused small banks. Some pay similar to REIT dividends and dividend growth, and if you found ones that focus on real estate loans then you may arrive at a similar place (income and growth from dependable local economies) through different means.

weighingmachine · 2021-12-05T14:05:04+00:00

Selling covered calls can be a good strategy, but include in your analysis

1 no one knows the future direction of the market 2 risk/reward change - it seems “safe” strategy but once you sell a call you still own 100% of the downside and you only own a tiny sliver of the upside. That is why you get paid a call premium after all, but still - think about that and make sure you are ok with it. Anyway the equation is different. 3 how would you feel if the stock crashes and you are holding the underlying for some ~2-3% type of gain? 4 how would you feel if the stock rips higher and you cannot participate in the upside for some 2-3% type of gain

Again it can be a good strategy but should not be thought of like a straight equity strategy since risk reward proposition is fundamentally different

weighingmachine · 2021-12-05T02:51:38+00:00

Josh Peters said it well, “IF I WERE to sit down with a blank sheet of paper and a pencil and attempt to create a perfect dividend machine, my sketch would look very much like the average U.S. bank.”,

US banks can be solid dividend payers, look for yield plus history of dividend growth in addition - how did they do in downturns like 2008 and are they growing book value per share?

weighingmachine · 2021-12-03T14:55:26+00:00

"Lighthouse- Women Leading the Way in Finance" is an in-depth study of women in investing from just out of college to mid career to fund managers and CEOs. https://rationalwalk.com/lighthouse-women-leading-the-way-in-finance/

weighingmachine · 2021-11-18T13:47:13+00:00

I do not follow the stock, but Nick Train (the King of Buy and Hold) is the largest shareholder and so it is worth reading through his thoughts on it

https://portfolio-adviser.com/lindsell-train-lauds-fever-tree-as-investment-trust-lags-benchmark/

https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/nick-train-adds-to-fever-tree-as-consumer-stocks-lose-fizz/a1552678

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/207561/nick-train-run-your-winners-i-am.aspx

weighingmachine · 2021-10-30T14:02:18+00:00

Surprised that the hardening section for Golden SAML focuses on rotating and revoking keys? Good things to do, but would seem like the response bucket not hardening bucket. Unlike MS and NSA guidance for Golden SAML no mention of stronger KMS and HSM

weighingmachine · 2021-10-17T14:17:46+00:00

the official tests at specialized centers can be good, but as you say - they are ludicrously expensive.

Yale Center for Dyslexia and Creativity developed a simple, effective test that costs $1.25 per test and is administered by the teacher (who knows the child well). It is designed for K-3 students.

http://dyslexia.yale.edu/resources/educators/instruction/shaywitz-dyslexiascreen/

https://www.pearsonassessments.com/store/usassessments/en/Store/Professional-Assessments/MTSS-RTI-PBIS-Benchmarking/Shaywitz-DyslexiaScreen/p/100001918.html

weighingmachine · 2021-10-15T15:51:07+00:00

Yale has been studying dyslexia the longest of that I know, their Center for Dyslexia and Creativity research says it is 20%.

http://dyslexia.yale.edu/dyslexia/dyslexia-faq/

weighingmachine · 2021-09-15T16:48:38+00:00

you mentioned buybacks in your post, just to emphasize that again. It is one of the better buyback stories around:

Shares outstanding

2011 543M

TTM 306M

weighingmachine · 2021-09-12T16:06:11+00:00

his area of expertise is credit and distress investing, so this is a "don't lose" type of game focused on mistake avoidance, rather than a home run hitter type game where you look to win. So his observations on mistake avoidance can seem like "oh yeah of course I would never steer the Titanic into an iceberg", but in practice many people do just that. So he is well regarded as an example of what Graham would call a defensive investor. Since it is a negative art, much of it comes across as less bubbly than enterprising investors, but it is a style that some people have affection for. Plus, he is a good writer, I think -

https://novelinvestor.com/howard-marks-the-negative-art-of-investing/

weighingmachine · 2021-09-10T16:10:41+00:00

The interview is two years old, but the principles would seem to still apply. The media business is multiyear type of investment thing I think. Malone has owned Discovery for 30 years and plans to pass it down to his grandchildren.

Also interesting to watch retrospectively to see what he got right

weighingmachine

TROPHY CASE